538 on final national map: “The GOP is positioned for a net gain of three to five seats in 2022 just thanks to the new lines alone.”
The Florida redistricting urged by Gov. Ron DeSantis and enacted by the legislature, gives a big advantage to Republicans, wiping out much of the Democrats gains elsewhere. The last we checked in on litigation over the maps about two weeks ago, Florida Redistricting Map Netting Republicans Several Seats Reinstated By State Appeals Court:
Florida redistricting was the flip side of the original NY gains, with the map proposed by Ron DeSantis as approved by the legislature to gain Republicans 3-4 seats, DeSantis Proposed Congressional Map May Wipe Out Dems National Redistricting Advantage, Says NBC News.
The advantage DeSantis had, I wrote at the time, was that his map was developed by opposing racial gerrymandering in a district designed to keep a black Congressman in office …
The DeSantis map was put on hold by a state court trial judge who issued a temporary restraining order. Under Florida law, the TRO was subject to an automatic stay, but the trial judge lifted the stay, effectively putting the TRO back into effect and taking the map out of effect.
An appeals court today reinstated the stay pending appeal, meaning the TRO no longer is operative and the map is restored.
In a Decision earlier today, the Florida Supreme Court refused to hear the case:
Petitioners’ request for a constitutional writ is denied. “[T]he doctrine of all writs is not an independent basis for this Court’s jurisdiction,” but instead “is restricted to preserving jurisdiction that has already been invoked or protecting jurisdiction that likely will be invoked in the future.” Roberts v. Brown, 43 So. 3d 673, 677 (Fla. 2010). Here Petitioners ask this Court to intervene in the First District Court of Appeal’s ongoing consideration of an appeal of an order imposing a temporary injunction. At this time, this Court does not have jurisdiction over that matter. And it is speculative whether the First District’s eventual decision will provide an appropriate basis for this Court’s exercise of discretionary review—meaning that we cannot say that it is likely that there is any jurisdiction to protect. Assuming without deciding that this Court would have the authority in these circumstances to issue a constitutional writ, we decline to exercise such authority. All pending motions are denied and no motion for rehearing will be entertained.
Politico notes that this means no change from these maps for 2022, even if the underlying litigation continues:
The high court’s ruling comes just two weeks before candidates must qualify for this year’s elections, meaning that the legal challenge won’t be resolved in time for a different map to be in place for the 2022 elections. Florida’s primary will be held on Aug. 23.
It also freezes in place for now a new congressional map for the nation’s third-largest state that will likely give Republicans a potential 20-8 advantage in a state where the GOP has only a slight voter registration advantage. This is another big blow to Democrats’ hopes of holding onto their majority in the U.S. House.
This new map also dismantles the North Florida congressional seat held by Rep. Al Lawson, a Black Democrat.
The sky is falling!
BREAKING: In a crushing blow to democracy, Florida's Supreme Court declines to hear a challenge to Gov. Ron DeSantis' new heavily gerrymandered congressional map that unfairly favors Republicans and targets Black voters. RT IF YOU THINK THAT THIS IS AN OUTRAGE!
— Occupy Democrats (@OccupyDemocrats) June 2, 2022
The final national redistricting nominally nets Democrats more “Biden” seats, but the redistricting reality favors Republicans, 538 notes:
Although Republicans went into the cycle with control over drawing more districts, the number of Democratic-leaning seats actually increased as a result of redistricting. The new maps have six more Democratic-leaning seats than the old ones and the same number of Republican-leaning seats. This is due to aggressive map-drawing by Democrats in states such as Illinois as well as court decisions overturning Republican gerrymanders in states like North Carolina.
After accounting for incumbency, however, Republicans are actually the ones who have gained ground from redistricting: The GOP is positioned for a net gain of three to five seats in 2022 just thanks to the new lines alone. Republicans have benefited from their own brazen cartography in states like Florida and courts striking down Democratic gerrymanders in Maryland and New York. Republicans have also shored up their existing position by converting light-red districts into safer seats in states like Texas.
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