Trending Red: FL Republican Registration Lead Grows, PA Dem Lead Shrinks, NV Party Switching Bad For Dems
“a statistic with ominous portents for Democratic candidates” in Nevada.
The 2022 midterms are still almost a year away, but there are already some bad signs for Democrats. The state of Nevada seems to be trending red and Florida, which was already trending Republican is just getting redder.
It’s too early to know if this is part of a larger national trend, but it should still set off alarm bells for Democrats.
Yes, it's early.
But this ominous trend continues for NV Dems as more of their voters are leaving to become Republicans than vice-versa — and more are leaving to become indies.
Numbers are not huge yet, especially compared to surge in non-major-party voters. But significant. https://t.co/k5Qy43IrWk
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) January 4, 2022
From the report in the Nevada Independent:
UPDATE: Trend continues of more Dems switching to GOP than vice-versa
More than two-and-a-half times as many Democrats changed their party registrations to Republican in Nevada during December, according to figures from the secretary of state.
About one and a half times more Dems switched to nonpartisan as did Republicans. (Those Independent American party numbers below surely reflect many who thought they were switching to nonpartisan, and Dems lost more there, too.)
I will be tracking this all year. The numbers for last month:
Democrat to Republican: 350
Republican to Democrat: 142
Democrat to nonpartisan: 587
Republican to nonpartisan: 395
Democrat to IAP: 195
Republican to IAP: 150
Democrat to Other: 11
Republican to Other: 16
All major party branding problems are equal, but some are more equal than others.
More than two and a half times as many Democrats have switched their voter registrations to Republicans as vice-versa during the last three months, a statistic with ominous portents for Democratic candidates.
At the same time, Florida is going deep red:
Hoo-boy! The pandemic effect on FL voter registration has been.. jaw-dropping
66/67 counties becoming redder
R's overtake D's for first time in state history@karol @HotlineJosh @guypbenson @MZHemingway @ReyAnthonyFL @Bryce__L @FloridaGOP pic.twitter.com/b8qWzLT8Og
— Tim (@TimDCpolitico) January 4, 2022
This Politico report is from November:
‘Milestone moment’: Republicans officially overtake Democrats in Florida
Florida is now officially a red state.
Republicans now hold a slight voter registration edge over Democrats, just another sign that the state is moving away from its two-decade-old reputation as the nation’s largest battleground state. It’s also more bad news for Democrats as they try to knock off rising national GOP star Gov. Ron DeSantis next year.
Voter registration data collected by the state and shared with POLITICO shows that there are now 6,035 more voters registered as Republicans than Democrats out of 14.3 million active registered voters. Each party has more than 5.1 million voters.
“This is a milestone moment in Florida’s history,” said Helen Aguirre Ferré, executive director of the Republican Party of Florida.
Democrats — who once had solid control at all levels of elected office until Republicans won the Legislature and governor’s mansion in the ‘90s — held a substantial edge in voter registration just a few years ago.
Will Pennsylvania be next?
🚨🚨New PA Dept of State voter registration data shows the Demadvantage down to 595,399. The first time under 600k in over 14 year. This is a net gain of 90,419 voters since the 2020 elections🚨🚨
— Mark Davin Harris (@markdharris) January 5, 2022
Republicans picked up 60 seats in the 2010 midterms and 2022 could be similar in scale.DONATE
Donations tax deductible
to the full extent allowed by law.