Trending Red: FL Republican Registration Lead Grows, PA Dem Lead Shrinks, NV Party Switching Bad For Dems
“a statistic with ominous portents for Democratic candidates” in Nevada.
The 2022 midterms are still almost a year away, but there are already some bad signs for Democrats. The state of Nevada seems to be trending red and Florida, which was already trending Republican is just getting redder.
It’s too early to know if this is part of a larger national trend, but it should still set off alarm bells for Democrats.
Yes, it's early.
But this ominous trend continues for NV Dems as more of their voters are leaving to become Republicans than vice-versa — and more are leaving to become indies.
Numbers are not huge yet, especially compared to surge in non-major-party voters. But significant. https://t.co/k5Qy43IrWk
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) January 4, 2022
From the report in the Nevada Independent:
UPDATE: Trend continues of more Dems switching to GOP than vice-versa
More than two-and-a-half times as many Democrats changed their party registrations to Republican in Nevada during December, according to figures from the secretary of state.
About one and a half times more Dems switched to nonpartisan as did Republicans. (Those Independent American party numbers below surely reflect many who thought they were switching to nonpartisan, and Dems lost more there, too.)
I will be tracking this all year. The numbers for last month:
Democrat to Republican: 350
Republican to Democrat: 142
Democrat to nonpartisan: 587
Republican to nonpartisan: 395
Democrat to IAP: 195
Republican to IAP: 150
Democrat to Other: 11
Republican to Other: 16
—-
All major party branding problems are equal, but some are more equal than others.
To wit:
More than two and a half times as many Democrats have switched their voter registrations to Republicans as vice-versa during the last three months, a statistic with ominous portents for Democratic candidates.
At the same time, Florida is going deep red:
Hoo-boy! The pandemic effect on FL voter registration has been.. jaw-dropping
Since 3/31/20:
+274,503 R
-51,995 D
66/67 counties becoming redder
R's overtake D's for first time in state history@karol @HotlineJosh @guypbenson @MZHemingway @ReyAnthonyFL @Bryce__L @FloridaGOP pic.twitter.com/b8qWzLT8Og— Tim (@TimDCpolitico) January 4, 2022
This Politico report is from November:
‘Milestone moment’: Republicans officially overtake Democrats in Florida
Florida is now officially a red state.
Republicans now hold a slight voter registration edge over Democrats, just another sign that the state is moving away from its two-decade-old reputation as the nation’s largest battleground state. It’s also more bad news for Democrats as they try to knock off rising national GOP star Gov. Ron DeSantis next year.
Voter registration data collected by the state and shared with POLITICO shows that there are now 6,035 more voters registered as Republicans than Democrats out of 14.3 million active registered voters. Each party has more than 5.1 million voters.
“This is a milestone moment in Florida’s history,” said Helen Aguirre Ferré, executive director of the Republican Party of Florida.
Democrats — who once had solid control at all levels of elected office until Republicans won the Legislature and governor’s mansion in the ‘90s — held a substantial edge in voter registration just a few years ago.
Will Pennsylvania be next?
New PA Dept of State voter registration data shows the Demadvantage down to 595,399. The first time under 600k in over 14 year. This is a net gain of 90,419 voters since the 2020 elections
— Mark Davin Harris (@markdharris) January 5, 2022
Republicans picked up 60 seats in the 2010 midterms and 2022 could be similar in scale.
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Comments
Those numbers look good but we still have the problem of unlawful ballots in enough quantity to influence an election.
You just hit the nail on the head, until ballot and voter count integrity are assured, none of this really matters.
Just stop with the defeatist nonsense. If that’s what you think then why bother to vote. Might as well just stay home and definitely give the democrats the win in the midterm elections since there’s no point in voting. The democrats will just cheat their way to a victory. Blah, blah, blah . . .
Just stop. Stop now.
No we don’t we have the problem with a lie about election fraud causing people not to show up to vote (see Georgia Senate vs Virginia Governors election).
If the voter fraud claims was a thing Trump would have told a that to a judge not just the court of public opinion, and Governor Elect Youngkin would have lost his election badly.
Meanwhile the latest polling data has Biden at levels below Richard Nixon’s level when he walked out of the White House and boarded Marine One for the last time.
I am not making this up.
Still worry on vote fraud and mail voting. At least in Pa we have a Republican Sec of State now.
But will that SecState recognize that no-excuse absentee ballots are not legal in Pennsylvania until they finish amending the commonwealth’s constitution? That’s why Pennsylvania’s votes should never have been counted, every no-excuse mailed-in ballot was cast illegally.
Every state did the same thing in 2020 election, did you want to exclude Florida, Alabama and Utah or is this restricted to states our side lost?
Trump lost PA by a margin far beyond voter fraud.
Want to lose it again keep discouraging Republicans from voting the way you are now.
If mail in ballots upset you so much blame Trump for signing it into law in all 50 states.
How is party switching monitored? What if people are just switching parties to poison the opposition’s primaries?
Mike, why do you accept the Red/Blue color scheme created by the mainstream media? “Red” is pinko/commie, which means Demo, not Republican.
“Blue” stands for “true blue,”, faithful, or Republican.
I reject the color coding! I am not a pinko!
If the ‘R’ in “red” is supposed to remind us of “Republicans”,
then ‘B’ in “blue” is for “bastards” and similar b-words.
This is childish. Sounds like when a liberal gets triggered over the “racism” in computer code or in nature.
One has to wonder what sort of retaliation there will be for those who switched from Democrat to anything else. Because the names and addresses are [or can easily be] known to the Left.
Subotai Bahadur
Let me get this out of the way. Here in Florida the absentee are counted first on Election Day, then the early votes and then the Election Day votes all on Election Day. Secondly, every person who is a Republican and wants to help I suggest you volunteer with your local or state party to register voters. If we can do it in Florida, you can do it in your state.
volunteer to count the vote
The key is don’t be complacent about good news in registrations or polls and don’t expect anyone else to do it for us. If we want r poll watchers present then we must volunteer. Same for fundraising, door knocking, phone banks, rides to the polls. Casting a vote simply isn’t enough, it’s just one piece, important for sure, but not enough in isolation.
Let us not forget that blue counties in Texas shifted towards the red and some towns elected Republican mayors unexpectedly
Democrats don’t care about voters – or their votes. Switching to the GOP en masse…. Pfft! They don’t care.
They only care about having the machinery to count the votes. That’s all. They learned quite well from Stalin.
The Nevada numbers aren’t high enough to be significant. Add at least one zero to the right, preferably two, and that will be something to get excited about.
.
I join in the caution not to get too excited or complacent. Recent analysis in Pima County, AZ, for example, has revealed that precincts with the higher Republican registration and mail-in ballot return rates had greater percentages of votes for Biden. That makes no sense whatsoever, until you realize that inflating the number of Republican registrations was, and probably still is, a component of the fraud.
The cheaters are sophisticated enough to realize they’re more likely to get away with misusing ballots sent out to “voters” registered as Republicans. Fraudulently obtained ballots injected into the elections are those ostensibly sent out to fraudulently registered fake Republicans, or to real Republican registrants who haven’t been voting, but somehow moved and submitted inordinate numbers of address changes just before the election. In the heavily Republican precinct where I live, the number of “inactive voters” who submitted address changes before the 2020 election was more than a dozen times the norm from prior years. We’re not being allowed to know where all those ballots went, and there is no record of where they got stuffed into the drop-boxes. But dozens of those voters showed up at the polls on election day, only to be told that they had to vote provisional ballots, because unbeknownst to them, they no longer lived in the precinct. Since state law prohibits in-person voting outside the precinct of the voter’s residence, this is a clever way to ensure that the ballots obtained by fraud are the ballots that get counted, not the provisional ballots completed by the real registered voters who still live where they did before.
Here is some good news. Ted Cruz has been indicating challenging Trump and DeSantis for the GOP nomination in 2024. He just now disemboweled himself.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/01/06/ted-cruz-january-6-protests-capitol-hill-violent-terrorist-attack/
He is piling on with the Dems and Never-Trumpers in blaming Trump for leading a domestic terrorist attack on the Capitol.
I’ve been very negative about Cruz for years since his meltdown in the 2016 primaries. But this seals the deal for me. Permanently. This guy is the Antonio Brown of the Republican Party.
Dear Blue Carpetbaggers,
if you moved to a Red State, there are no “good” Democrats. Though some may seem moderate, rest assured they will vote with the BlueAnon crazies that ruined the State you fled.
There are no “good” Blue Carpetbaggers. The tiger cannot change its stripes.