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Exodus: New York State Hemorrhaging People

Exodus: New York State Hemorrhaging People

Over 300,000 residents left in the past year. Can’t imagine why.

The new U.S. Census Bureau data shows New York state bled over 300,000 residents (1.6% decline) from July 2020 to July 2021:

New York’s net loss of 319,020 residents is the largest single-year decline in the state’s history, according to an analysis by the Empire Center for Public Policy, an Albany research organization.

The Census Bureau statistics released Tuesday blamed most of New York’s decline on domestic migration. The state had a net loss of 352,185 residents when accounting for those who moved to and from other states.

The Empire State registered around 19.8 million people in July.

My friend Karol Markowicz is moving with her family from New York City to Florida. In a Fox News op-ed, Karol admitted the leftist policies of the state and city did not help. But the last straw is how fellow New Yorkers cowered and accepted the harsh rules during the pandemic:

It was because they took away school during the pandemic and not enough of my fellow New Yorkers cared. I kept looking around at a civilization that does not value education. Or worse, values it for their own kids, in the form of private pods or putting them into open private schools, but won’t fight for their less fortunate neighbors to have the same.

And then, when schools finally reopened there was no discussion about the broken system that had kept them closed. The very same people stuck kids in masks indefinitely, even outdoors.

But the worst part was that New Yorkers quietly accepted this. At least schools were open, they said. We were a city of strivers! We were never a city that accepted the bare minimum, that was for … other cities, and here we were imposing just that on our children.

I don’t know why others left New York, but I imagine a lot felt the same way as Karol. Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo enforced awful mandates and policies. The new acting governor is no better. NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio is doing all he can to grind down the city before he leaves.

Census officials will release the cities and counties’ residential data in March. So right now we do not know which ones lost the most people during the year.

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Comments

Most cities are doomed to suffer a long painful decline.

    Ben Kent in reply to JohnSmith100. | December 25, 2021 at 8:54 pm

    EVEN WORSE THAN YOU THOUGHT

    320,000 is the NET decline. It would have been MUCH worse if illegal immigrants were not counted in the census.

    NYC and the State is slowly replacing skilled-workers who have higher incomes and assets with illegal immigrants who will work for minimum wage – or less – or are on gov’t assistance and have few assets.

    IT IS A DEMOGRAPHIC TIME BOMB. EVENTUALLY, CITY RESIDENTS WILL BE UNABLE TO PAY THE TAXES THAT ARE REQUIRED TO RUN THE CITY.

    YOU CAN THANK DeBLASIO. HE ACCELERATED THIS DEMOGRAPHIC DEBACLE BY 10x.

      Di Blasio, like Lightfoot and LA mayor Garcetti were put in place to destroy by their incompetence and corruption.

      New NYC mayor Eric Adams isn’t exactly a braintrust, either. His pick for police commissioner seems risky: he chose a relatively inexperienced leader, who checks the Kamala Harris boxes.

      Bloomberg was an ass, but a very good administrator and chief executive- though the gold standard is Rudy Guillani.

      NYC picked mediocrity, though Adams is WAY above the sludge that was Di Blasio.

      SeekingRationalThought in reply to Ben Kent. | December 26, 2021 at 8:59 am

      Just playing around with very rough figures, it looks like this level of depopulation deprives New York of well over a billion dollars of tax revenue. Has anyone seen more accurate numbers?

Don’t forget the ability of people to permanently telework.

    Florida_Prophet in reply to p. | December 25, 2021 at 11:11 pm

    Those are no longer New York taxpayers. The destruction of New York City is the goal of communist De Blasio.

Do NOT come to Arizona, it’s very, very dangerous. Not only do we have poisonous snakes and bugs and plants, everybody carries a gun. And we shoot people in cars with NY & CA plates. That is not a crime here.

    TX-rifraph in reply to mbecker908. | December 25, 2021 at 7:41 pm

    Gee–AZ sounds safer than NYC…

    ghost dog in reply to mbecker908. | December 25, 2021 at 9:15 pm

    As a fellow Arizonan I can certify everything mbecker908 said it true. And don’t let them tell you it’s a dry heat.

    Ben Kent in reply to mbecker908. | December 26, 2021 at 8:05 am

    NYC PEOPLE SHOULD GO TO PUERTO RICO

    They will like it there. It will feel like home. It is sunny and they need more taxpaying people. There are corrupt politicians who ran the government into the ground.

    Also, Puerto Rico is not a state and has no representation in Congress. So, we don’t have to worry about NY radical liberals adversely impacting the federal government.

    Puerto Rico will welcome New Yorkers. They already have high crime and leaders who are incompetent but are great at virtue signaling. New Yorkers will feel right at home. about 50% of NYC is now Latino Spanish-speaking. So New York transplants will feel right at home.

    And the woke NYC people can hate America as much as they want in PR – while still retaining their US Passport.

    It’s a win – win.

    RandomCrank in reply to mbecker908. | December 26, 2021 at 10:59 am

    Nor to my county in eastern Washington. The majority of adult, law-abiding men are concealed carriers, or at least hold the permit. And there are cougars, rattlers, and black bears everywhere. The internet sucks (hello, HughesNet) so you can forget about that remote work thingy.

      RandomCrank in reply to RandomCrank. | December 26, 2021 at 11:10 am

      I forgot the coyotes, and the neighbor who shoots them at 300 yds with nothing but iron sights on his 7mm rifle, then cuts off the tails and nails ’em to his barn as a warning. If you do move here, know that the bobcats are almost as big as the cougars, and will be happy to consume your housecat.

      Ben Kent in reply to RandomCrank. | December 26, 2021 at 5:34 pm

      Eastern Washington has enough to deal with – given it shares the state with the lunatics in Seattle. Seattle government makes NYC look smart.

    dannystaggers in reply to mbecker908. | December 26, 2021 at 1:19 pm

    Then you don’t know much about NYS. All of upstate is red. The problem is, we don’t outnumber NYC or Albany which always combines together. Two huge Communist cities control our state and there’s nothing we can do about it. And believe me, it’s not blue Communists leaving the state so our numbers are getting even smaller. When they make my unvaxed status illegal, I’ll be moving to N. Dakota. Bet on it.

A lot of big city people are hemorrhaging too

This is another manifestation of the Curley Effect. Communist politicians are deliberately pursuing policies designed to drive out voters unlikely to vote for them. This causes economic catastrophe and a truly staggering increase in crime.

Yet paradoxically the Curly Effect makes it impossible to vote the Communists out of power. Voters remaining in these sh*tholes are increasingly Communist-leaning, as half-ways rational voters are becoming scarcer. This drives Communist politicians even further to the Left and fuels another cycle of economic despair, crime, and voter exodus (rinse and repeat).

    Florida_Prophet in reply to Recovering Lutheran. | December 25, 2021 at 11:13 pm

    The tipping point will arrive when the criminals are all who remain and are relegated to robbing one-another.

    But doesn’t what’s happening in NYC go way beyond the Curley Effect? I.e., the Left has already driven out nearly all moderate-to-conservative voters from the City. It therefore already has a permanent 70%+ electoral majority there. If what we’re witnessing in NYC were just the “Curley Effect”, there’d be no reason for the Left to continue chasing the remaining non-Leftist voters out of the City.

    My theory is that the Left isn’t satisfied with mere perpetual electoral victory. What they really crave is elimination of all dissent/disobedience.

    So what we’re witnessing in NYC under DeBlowsio is, I think, more accurately called the “Lenin Effect”, “Mao Effect”, or, more generically, the “Totalitarian Effect”.

    Is that James Michael Curley you’re referring to?

2 Thessalonians 2:11
11 And for this cause God shall send them strong delusion, that they should believe a lie. The Democrats threw God out of their party platform in 2012. We are all suffering from their lack of discernment and evil agenda. Satan is their commander in chief. They are demonic! Change my mind.

I know NYC very well. The schools and not feeling safe are key factors for anyone with children leaving. Too many media stories of bad consequences of “no-baii” policies. Killing a lot of people with poor Covid policies does not help; nor does have many of the amenities like theaters, museums, restaurants, etc closed or limited for most of the last 2 years. Plus, with the Biden administration, there is little prospect of Federal leadership on problems.

    High taxes, high crime, bad traffic, high concentration of people, and BAD WEATHER.

    What’s there to stay for?

      In my case, my community. Not the one where I live, but the one where I spend most of my social time — where I worship, shop, eat out (without showing a vax card or wearing a mask), meet people, etc. If I were to move there are a limited number of places I could go where I could enjoy a comparable level of amenities: Basically Florida or LA. LA is of course no better than NY, and FL has down sides such as the wildlife (not so much the snakes as the insects), the hurricanes, the heat in summer, and having to own a car.

The last time 300,000+ New Yorkers went South, there were a couple of large, defensive battles by Southerners to repel them…

I’m temporarily in a blue state, but I’ll soon be retiring to Florida, where I was born and raised.

To all New Yorkers, Californians, Chicagoans, Seattleites, and others who have elected Democrats that have ruined their cities:
DO NOT come to Florida!!

Florida has weekly hurricanes, and gators and cottonmouths come up out of the toilets on a daily basis. We have bull sharks that bite everyone who goes in the water. Everybody carries an “assault weapon”, and (as Becker said about AZ), there is a 53-week open season on cars with CA and NY plates.

Our governor lets us do what we like, and he even abides by the Constitution during the pandemic. So if you come to FL, you catch the WuFlu, be bitten by a gator if the sharks don’t get you first, and the redneck gun lovers will be out to get you.

Please move to true-blue Minnesota. You’ll love it there!

    TX-rifraph in reply to OldProf2. | December 26, 2021 at 7:50 am

    Minneapolis, at one time and perhaps still does, arrogantly labeled itself as “Minne-apple” as it saw itself as culturally similar to the Big Apple, NYC. Perhaps the red states should be marketing this in NYC as a way to escape NYC without suffering too much culture shock (a serious risk if landing in a red state).

    txvet2 in reply to OldProf2. | December 26, 2021 at 3:18 pm

    Florida is fortunate in that a large percentage of the New Yorkers who move there are retirees, and they don’t generally last too long. Texas, unfortunately, seems to get mostly younger Californians who move here to try to catch up with their former jobs.

    WISteve in reply to OldProf2. | December 28, 2021 at 11:51 pm

    “….Please move to true-blue Minnesota. You’ll love it there!…..”

    The state of my birth and somewhere I never wish to visit!

    My long deceased father shook hands with Hubert Humphrey at a county fair once and voted DemonRat for the rest of his life!!

    I got my brains from my mother’s Lutheran, Republican and strong work ethic side of the family. Rural Minnesota is still a good place to grow-up. The Twin Cities? Not so much.

I spent a year in New York.and found that the state is a parasite sucking the life out of productive people. Their property taxes are so high that it doubles the cost of owning a home.

I looked at an 11,000 sqft home with an indoor swimming pool for only $800,000! It had been on the market for a long time because no one could afford it.

The whole downtown was desolate because businesses had closed or left.

My bosses’ wife closed her contractor business because the state changed the law so that she was liable for the actions of her subcontractors even if she required them to carry their own insurance. She could loose her business if one of her sub killed somebody while driving drunk on the way to work.

    “the state changed the law so that she was liable for the actions of her subcontractors even if she required them to carry their own insurance….”

    That’s happening in a lot of states. All it does is raise the cost of construction to a ridiculous level.

      And the additional funds go to attorneys and insurance companies who contribute to the Dems and eGOP.

      ConradCA, Why should a “general contractor” reap the rewards of having the primary relationship with a customer if they are not responsible for the quality of the work effort (whether through employees or sub contractors) ? … I suggest you look in the mirror before decreeing others as “parasites”.

The bad news is, no matter how badly their population tanks, it will never be enough to lose them a Senator.

The lefts end goal is one party rule. A dictatorship in which they get their slaves back with interest. Interest being the ownership of the wealth of our nation.

Admiral Levines Pronouns | December 26, 2021 at 1:56 am

Unfortunately, they will relocate in red states and proceed to ruin them too eventually. Liberals are like locusts.

New Yorkers, do not come to Texas. Texas has already filled it’s quota of transplanted New Yorkers.

And I have no intention of leaving.
(Texan since 1987)

    Milwaukee in reply to Rusty Bill. | December 26, 2021 at 9:56 pm

    If they come they need to pass a History of Texas test. And a one car family may own a car, but the second vehicle must be an SUV or a pickup truck. We have constitutional open carry. (Still need a permit for concealed carry.) The weather can be miserable. I’m between the Gulf of Mexico and the Wild Horse Desert, so it’s hot and muggy. If you’re not careful at the beach we have flesh eating bacteria in the water. Oh, it’s a Right to work state with at will termination.

New Yorkers don’t come to Virginia either. We have many dangers here like bad thunder and lightning storms. Plus we were a Confederate state so we’re all racists. Our outgoing Governor wore the KKK outfit to prove it so stay where you are. It’s very nice in NY just ask all the Democrats.

Lucifer Morningstar | December 26, 2021 at 8:16 am

But at least we don’t have an Orange Man making mean tweets on twitter, right? Right?!?

Do some back of the envelope math of what this means to real estate prices in your favorite no-income tax red state.

Presume 10% of these 300k are cash rich from selling in NY and land in your state along another similar sized group from Ca.

Home prices in TN, TX, FL have nearly doubled in the past 5 years. I’m trying to assess the economic impact and other than punishing locals on real estate, this influx of cash rich productive people is going to be really good for these economies.

Mississippi has stated they want to be a no income tax state by 2030- they ought to accelerate this.

Also I’m dubious that those fleeing vote D. I think what we are GENERALLY seeing is the GOP voters who have had enough. We’re planning our exit (from Wa) for similar reasons.

    CommoChief in reply to Andy. | December 26, 2021 at 9:58 am

    Those are good points. I agree that the majority of the folks bolting from blue enclaves are not likely looking to impose the ruinous policies that created the conditions they fled onto their new location. Some sure but not close to a majority and even those will be unlikely to support the specific policy or policies that finally drove them out.

    r2468 in reply to Andy. | December 26, 2021 at 10:18 am

    In my experience the transplants are very happy with the low taxes but eventually they support increasing the school budget and want better services from local government. So There may be differences in Republicans coming from different parts of the country.

    henrybowman in reply to Andy. | December 27, 2021 at 2:03 pm

    “this influx of cash rich productive people is going to be really good for these economies.”
    Productive?
    How many DEI administrators, YouTube makeup influencers, and aspiring rappers can you absorb?

Worth mentioning that the Census does not necessarily match permanent residency. I wonder how many of those 319,000 New Yorkers left temporarily. Lots of anecdotes to that effect.

    many New Yorkers are living in Florida for 6 months and applying for FL residency. But New York is auditing most of folks leaving for Florida and if they catch them in New York for 6+ months then it’s time to pay state taxes. Ouch. $$$

      RandomCrank in reply to r2468. | December 26, 2021 at 4:12 pm

      These population numbers have to be taken with not just a grain of salt but the whole shaker. Trust me, I am hardly a shill for New York, but there are too many anecdotes. Not only that, but the numbers between the formal censuses are estimates. I’d take them more seriously if I knew more about their derivation.

The census is a lie as when Biden came in he ordered the counting of illegals for the purposes of Congressional representation. If we had a true count of citizens NY might have lost 4 seats.

    RandomCrank in reply to Dave. | December 26, 2021 at 4:13 pm

    Where’s your evidence?

    Milhouse in reply to Dave. | December 26, 2021 at 7:47 pm

    That is not a lie, it’s what the constitution says. The census is not supposed to be a count of citizens. It never was. It’s a count of the whole number of persons in the state.

    Random, the “proof” is right there in the constitution.

At one time upstate republicans almost equaled big city leftists. Cuomo worked hard to depopulate the red counties and flood them with illegals so it’ll be hard to restore a non-insane person to the governor’s office.

Despite voters overwhelmingly rejecting a ballot provision disbanding the independent redistricting commission, the face-lifted governess plans to carve up the electoral districts to permanently favor her party.

But the vibe is gone, streets are filled with crime, adults and children hide at home and collect their checks and nobody ever smiles. This depressing environment costs a middle class family over 50% in taxes, so we are outta here too.

It’s sad but necessary, the Empire State is gone now. Those who remain are stuck to a government job or the teat of free money,good luck to them.

    JMark in reply to Chicklet. | December 26, 2021 at 1:41 pm

    Things can turn around. Last time I was in Virginia, where I grew up, I didn’t recognize it. The recent election seems a promising opportunity to take back control from the northern VA democrats.

Unfortunately this is all happening after the census. For the next ten years NY will have representation for all those people who have fled.

The ignorance of too many of the commenters here amazes me.

The debt laden states such as NY, IL, NJ, CA, etc are and have for 60 + years been funding the “red states” to which the “blue state” municipal employees move once retired with their underfunded, excessive state pensions and post retirement benefits.

As well, NYC/NYS has for rural states been a mecca for many of their dregs and narcissistic sociopaths for 60 + years (including, NYS has continually been burdened with US senators who have no connection to NY).

And, the technology which has been eroding NYC Financial District salaries and need for back-office labor, and exodus of manufacturing and corporate headquarters has been occurring for 40 + years, complemented and encouraged by federal deregulation, and administrative rules and regulations which eliminate labor and replace jobs with technology.

But, to all the NY bashers wallow in your ignorance of economics and how NYS’ loss is not your gain.

While it is highly like that at some point in the near future the federal government will find it necessary to assume NYS and other states’ pension and benefit obligations; I have to believe it will only come with a reduction in promised benefits. Which in turn will undermine the state economies of all the self anointed, virtuous, wanna think themselves, conservatives commenting with such stupidity and aggressiveness above.

At about the same time debt payments on all that new infrastructure built to support the “great migration from ‘red states'” can no longer be rolled forward with new debt. (And, road congestion. … Wait. It will only get worse. You will not recognize your former neighborhood, communities, states.)

True New Yorkers will thus benefit from the debt relief and population exodus. … Oh, and the welfare and entitlement recipients will be leaving also for those states who in the future will be able to “afford” such responsibilities. And, all those undocumented refugees the demonrats have been relocating to “red states” – How do you spell “No Go Zones” ?

I, for one am glad I do not have school aged children; yet I can assist in the homeschooling of my grandchildren and others in the neighborhood. And, I can see “silver lining” in NYS’ and NYC’s precipitous decline of those whose behavior is motivated solely by fiat bytes.

    Milhouse in reply to Sisu. | December 27, 2021 at 1:12 am

    The debt laden states such as NY, IL, NJ, CA, etc are and have for 60 + years been funding the “red states”

    No, they haven’t. The usual method of those who tell this falsehood is to pretend that federal taxes collected in a state are paid by that state, and that federal spending in a state is a grant to that state. That’s just outright false.

    to which the “blue state” municipal employees move once retired with their underfunded, excessive state pensions and post retirement benefits.

    Your version is slightly more sophisticated, but its flaw is that the number of such retirees who move to those states is too small, and the benefit to those states of their receiving their pensions there is too slight, to make a significant difference to their economies.

    RandomCrank in reply to Sisu. | December 27, 2021 at 2:23 pm

    Here’s another scenario.

    The NYC financial pillars that pay for that show move their HQs to Dallas, telling employees that they can work anywhere via broadband. NYC turns into St. Louis, and NYS becomes Mississippi. Yep, the pensions get slashed, which is allowed by ERISA — look it up. The feds do nothing. Boo hoo. By the way, if your heroes get resettled anywhere near where I live, their tenure will be short-lived.

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