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U.S. Intelligence: Kabul Could Fall to Taliban ‘Within 90 Days’ 

U.S. Intelligence: Kabul Could Fall to Taliban ‘Within 90 Days’ 

The AP: “Taliban could gain full control of the country within a few months.”

As one Afghan province after another comes under the control of the Islamic terrorist militia Taliban, U.S. intelligence officials warn that the capital Kabul could fall within 90 days.

“The latest U.S. military intelligence assessment suggests Kabul could come under insurgent pressure within 30 days and that, if current trends hold, the Taliban could gain full control of the country within a few months,” the Associated Press reported on Thursday.

The U.S. intelligence assessment comes as the Taliban took over the tenth provincial capital since President Joe Biden ordered the complete withdrawal of U.S. troops by September.

On Thursday, Taliban fighters entered the strategic city of Ghazni, located some 90 miles from Kabul. “Taking Ghazni is thought to increase the likelihood that the Taliban could eventually aim to take Kabul itself,” The BBC noted.

Reports came out about heavy fighting around Kandahar, the country’s second-largest city. News on Wednesday suggests that the Taliban forces now control parts of the city.

The AP reported the Taliban’s rapid advance through Afghanistan:

The Taliban captured a strategic provincial capital near Kabul on Thursday, the 10th the insurgents have taken in a weeklong sweep across Afghanistan just weeks before the end of the American military mission there.

Seizing Ghazni cuts off a crucial highway linking the Afghan capital with the country’s southern provinces, which similarly find themselves under assault as part of an insurgent push some 20 years after U.S. and NATO troops invaded and ousted the Taliban government.

While Kabul itself isn’t directly under threat, the loss of Ghazni tightens the grip of a resurgent Taliban estimated to now hold some two-thirds of the nation, and thousands of people have fled their homes. (…)

On Thursday, the militants raised their white flags imprinted with an Islamic proclamation of faith over the city of Ghazni, just 130 kilometers (80 miles) southwest of Kabul. Mohammad Arif Rahmani, a lawmaker from Ghazni, said the city had fallen to the insurgents. Ghazni provincial council member Amanullah Kamrani also told The Associated Press that but added that the two bases outside of the city remain held by government forces.

Militants crowded onto one seized Humvee and drove down one main road in Ghazni, with the golden dome of a mosque near the governor’s office visible behind them, yelling: “God is great!” The insurgents, cradling their rifles, later gathered at one roundabout for an impromptu speech by a commander. One militant carried a rocket-propelled grenade launcher.

Kamrani alleged that Ghazni’s provincial governor and police chief made a deal with the Taliban to flee after their surrender. Taliban video and photos purported to show the governor’s convoy passing by Taliban fighters unstopped as part of the deal.

The 300,000-strong U.S. and NATO-trained Afghan National Army has failed to put up a real fight. In the face of the Taliban onslaught, many of them have dropped their weapons and fled. “Taliban fighters carrying M-16 rifles and driving Humvees and Ford pickup trucks donated by the Americans rolled through the streets of the [provincial] capital [city of Farah],” The Times of Israel reported on Thursday.

Instead of fighting to the bitter end, many Afghan soldiers are seeking refuge in neighboring countries. “Stepped up Taliban attacks in recent weeks have forced hundreds of pro-Afghan government forces to escape to Tajikistan, Iran, China and Pakistan, enabling the insurgents to seize landlocked Afghanistan’s strategic border crossings with these neighbors,” the Voice of America reported last month.

Twenty years after the fall of the Afghan Taliban, the jihadi group has pledged to restore the “Islamic Emirate” in the country. If former President Donald Trump oversaw the destruction of the Islamic Caliphate in Syria and Iraq, President Biden’s tenure might witness the reestablishment of another haven for the worldwide jihad.

Nearly four years after the U.S.-backed forces destroyed the Islamic State by liberating their capital Raqqa, Islamic fanatics are on the verge of declaring another jihadi state.

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Comments

I remember watching the fall of Saigon, it doesn’t seem much different. The end result is that good people will suffer.

    Virginia42 in reply to TimMc. | August 13, 2021 at 8:45 am

    Heck, at least the ARVN was holding its own (until we turned off their supplies). These guys aren’t even putting up a fight.

JusticeDelivered | August 12, 2021 at 1:14 pm

I can think of only one good way to stop this :}

I am willing to bet the Taliban will push hard to capture Kabul on or before 9/11. The symbolism will not be lost on the world, although the Joseph Goebbels media in the US will miraculously fail to cover it.

The American Republic died for good on 1/20/2021, when a Communist regime took control after a stolen election. In the years and decades to come the global battle will be between two competing totalitarian ideologies (Communism and Islam).

    Politico has already covered the 9/11 20th anniversary angle

    Still no evidence for election fraud still no link to communism

      UserP in reply to mark311. | August 13, 2021 at 12:52 pm

      Is that where you’ve been for the last month? We’ve been anxiously awaiting your report to let us know what’s going on otherwise we would be totally in the
      dark.

90 days?

Likely a lot sooner than that.

Our State Dept simply refuses to see that the Taliban is normative Islam. Along with ISIS, HAMAS, Boko Harem, Al Shabaab, and countless others.

World dominance is Islam’s aim. Cruelty and terror are simply the means to get there.

More appropo would be the headline, “America and Taiwan fall to Communist China in 90 days”.

We’rw not gonna make it. It’s too late. Secession is our only hope.

    TFR, calling for secession is one of your major themes. But I’m having a difficult job finding a successful precedent, a model, a successful pattern to follow.

    I’m leaning the same way, but, before I’m willing to follow you, please provide some concrete details for your plan. Will followers be paid? Currency? Medical benefits, aid to widows, orphans, children? Retirement benefits? Have you found Solid allies like Canada and Mexico and Puerto Rico? And California?

    You’d need some good Justification to appeal to foreign states at least to remain neutral. “When in the Course of Human Events It becomes Necessary …” might not sell like it did the first time.

    Are you planning to preside? If so, please post your credentials.

    It’d be nice if the governments at all three levels didn’t have command over all our paychecks, bank accounts, stocks, bonds, real estate because then we could have a meaningful tax revolt to curb excesses.

    And didn’t Old Blank Joe say recently that for the 2nd Amendment to be effective, usurpers claiming a tyranny to justify rebellion would need a dadgum nuclear weapon?

    How many bombs, delivery systems you got put back?

    Or are you planning to start completely from scratch? Or, are you just joshing?

      henrybowman in reply to thetaqjr. | August 12, 2021 at 6:55 pm

      “And didn’t Old Blank Joe say recently that for the 2nd Amendment to be effective, usurpers claiming a tyranny to justify rebellion would need a dadgum nuclear weapon?”

      Although I agree with the bulk of your posting, this gem is as ridiculous as the guy who coined it. Look at it baking in the sun, in the very comments section of an article that definitively proves precisely the opposite… for the second time.

      geronl in reply to thetaqjr. | August 12, 2021 at 8:42 pm

      I think if we keep heading this way, we can get 40+ states to secede and reform a new union with pretty much the same Constitution but with many more limitations on federal power.

        Name one, JUST ONE, nation on the face of the earth that would recognize our new union. This was a major problem for the South in the Civil War, no foreign power would recognize the Confederacy as a nation, there was no support at all. During the Revolutionary War, by contrast, we had support from a lot of nations, most helpful were Spain and France. Without external recognition, any new nation or new confederacy of states (whatever) that seceded would be an exercise in utter futility.

        There is a sort of secession happening, though, as conservatives move to red states in search of freedom, better schools, etc. There is safety in numbers, particularly given the woke federal government’s war on domestic terror (i.e. us), so moving if one can to a free state is very important right now.

          Virginia42 in reply to Fuzzy Slippers. | August 13, 2021 at 8:52 am

          There was tacit support for the Confederacy from France and Britain, but it was never overt. What the south needed was for the Royal Navy to break the blockade–they never did so as for a number of political reasons they did not formally recognize the South. As for the American War of Independence, there was no formal support from anyone until after the Battle of Saratoga in 1777. While various European powers were OK selling weapons and supplies to the Rebels, it wasn’t enough to tip the balance until France, and then later Spain (and others) overtly joined the war as Allies. That took time. What we are facing now in the US, domestically, is hard to generalize about–there’s a divide, but unlike the 1770s and 1860s it isn’t so much geographical and ideological. More like Schlichter’s books, I suppose. I fear greatly for the future because the people who are supposed to be supporting consitutional government are, more often than not, turning out to be a bunch of RINOs.

          Given that the new Free Republic would be both the breadbasket of the world and a major energy exporter, LOTS of nations would recognize it.

          India comes to mind as it would want that energy so it depends less on the Moddle East. Especially if the BJP remains in power.

          Putin would recognize it as a means of settling a score with the nation that he sees responsible for breaking up HIS country.

          The Visegrad four would also see such a nation as a political kindred spirit and would not trust the rump Marxist America left behind.

        henrybowman in reply to geronl. | August 12, 2021 at 11:51 pm

        Screw constitutions. Words on paper guarantee nothing. Especially not when the very organization they were meant to constrain has the authority to “interpret” them away. Just the fact that none of the behaviors they supposedly prohibit are ever accompanied by mandatory penalties for committing them tells you that the drafters were covering their butts from day one.

        “For intending to establish three departments, co-ordinate and independent, that they might check and balance one another, it has given, according to this opinion, to one of them alone, the right to prescribe rules for the government of the others, and to that one too, which is unelected by, and independent of the nation. For experience has already shown that the impeachment it has provided is not even a scarecrow… The constitution, on this hypothesis, is a mere thing of wax in the hands of the judiciary, which they may twist, and shape into any form they please.”
        –Thomas Jefferson

The Friendly Grizzly | August 12, 2021 at 2:01 pm

With respect… the problem is Afghanistan’s. I’m sick to death of expending US lives and treasure for others.

    A region of tribes… not even close to being a true country. Can’t build a nation when nothing is there to build with or for. We should have nuked Tora Bora, assisted the Northern Alliance and never have been on the ground… Sun Tzu was right. The US has developed the most powerful losing war plans.

    The RINO war monger logic is that we have to impose our will on these foreign lands and their people because otherwise they pose a national security threat to us or to our allies (who until Trump came along, spent all their taxpayer money on failed socialist policies rather than their own defense). I used to buy that. Now, not so much.

      You used to buy that? Aw come on Fuzzy.

      As somebody that was in the military and seen a number of friends come back with severe injuries or not come back at all, I would buy that if they had an actual strategy with actual clear military objectives and clear performance points for the Afghan government and military.

      Instead the ‘objective’ seems to be ‘spend a lot of money on politically connected contractors and prop up this corrupt incompetent mess forever.’

      Last buddy that I had that went there was in 2015, and they were still training the Afghan idiots in BASIC military tactics because the Afghan military was incapable of doing it. 15 years and they couldn’t train basic soldiers.

        This is one of the reasons that I changed my mind. We weren’t there to win, we were there to waste lives in the name of building up military spending. The objective never seemed clear, and the ROE’s were ludicrous, particularly under Obama (no ammo for patrols, no armor on vehicles–guys were strapping metal roofing on the sides!, having to beg to shoot down a plane that is shooting at you, etc.). The brass and their civilian overlords didn’t want to win, they just wanted to be there to increase military spending. It was a cluster. And I finally gave up on the RINO crap about protecting our national interests because it was clear that we were doing little more than marching our guys–in a row–into enemy fire. It was disgusting, and our military (before it went woke) deserved better and could have won . . . had they been allowed to do so. They were not. Their hands were tied. How long did it take to get Osama bin Laden? Why did it take that long? We always knew where he was, but we “needed” to invade Iraq . . . ugh. So disgusting. And truly, deeply shameful.

        NYBruin in reply to Olinser. | August 12, 2021 at 7:46 pm

        This video is all you really need to see:

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8LSnuGTO5w

      Virginia42 in reply to Fuzzy Slippers. | August 13, 2021 at 8:54 am

      The sad fact is we never even tried it. We always start on talking about “exit strategies” before we even go to war. The only “exit strategy” is to win. We don’t even consider that anymore. The WW2 generation (and many others) are aghast at this mindlessness we embrace when taking military action.

    “We’re from the US government, and we’re here to help you!
    By breaking your things and killing your people!
    For 20 years! Then we’re gone!
    So you better enjoy the help while it lasts!”

This is a surprise to who????

Another Leftist military debacle, no one is surprised because it was planned this way.

This will be far uglier than most believe. Get ready for slavery. Get ready for photos of women forcibly married or raped. Get ready for an opportunist enforcement of Sharia.

This was the reality in Ramadi Iraq in 2006. ISIS cut the fingers off the hands of smokers. They kidnapped daughters of prominent families and the family either accepted the forced marriage or the girls were gang raped. Look to the recent experience in Syria to see the future when ISIS reclaims their power.

This is on the Afghan people to solve. Our Nation has spent too much blood and treasure pursuing the fantasy that we could successfully create a western society.

    You forgot the televised/taped beheadings.

      And the caged prisoners burned alive

      CommoChief in reply to Fuzzy Slippers. | August 12, 2021 at 7:14 pm

      Fuzzy,

      I was relating what I personally viewed while in Ramadi from Aug 06 – Dec 07 on my second Iraq deployment. These things were the basis of the Anbar Awakening; the coalition of Sunni Tribes who reached out to US Forces and willingly partnered with us to drive out the insurgents.

      Lucifer Morningstar in reply to Fuzzy Slippers. | August 12, 2021 at 9:03 pm

      You forgot the televised/taped beheadings.

      Why bother with that old technology. I predict the beheadings, immolations and other barbaric practices will be live-streamed on Facebook® and Twitter® with the full endorsement of Zuckerberg and Dorsey.

    Some (many) tribes don’t let these assholes in. Unfortunately for the most part it will go badly for the rest.

    Lone Survivor (the book) only scratched the surface of the complexities of that country.

      CommoChief in reply to Andy. | August 12, 2021 at 8:40 pm

      Very true. The differences between the tribes are more pronounced than many appreciate; attitudes summed up by stating that ‘all rag heads are the same; Islamic terrorists’. That simply isn’t true.

      Hell most Americans conflate the Afghan people and the Iraqi people. Likewise with Arabs of their many varieties with Iranians; Persians or North Africans.

      But wave the flag, pose for photos with the Troops and add in that flipping Lee Greenwood song and off we go to support another war which is at best on the extreme periphery of our National security.

      No more for me, thanks.

    thetaqjr in reply to CommoChief. | August 12, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    Let’s fund a one year sabbatical for Obama benKendi to go there and study real live, bloody oppression. He’d certainly maintain his minority status in Afghanistan, and he’d get to wear a turban.

    geronl in reply to CommoChief. | August 12, 2021 at 8:46 pm

    If an American creates a new source of energy to replace oil (and coal) what happens to the middle east? I’m sure it’ll be epic.

When, unsurprisingly, Afghan forces refuse to man up and fight, I lose all sympathy for that screwed up country. Again, the only people I feel sorry for are the women and children. Their lives will be hell.

troops on way to evacuate embassy as I type this.
remember when biden said we’ll never see helicopters evacuating kabul embassy like saigon?
guess if no copters actually used it TECHNICALLY true but……yeah.

    Olinser in reply to dmacleo. | August 12, 2021 at 7:31 pm

    Notice what he says. He didn’t say it’s not going to happen.

    He just said we’ll never SEE it happen.

Tomorrow is within 90 days.

If the CIA wanted to do some good, they’d somehow sucker the Chinese into this trap.

I’m sorry for the suffering that many over there are about to endure, but it is not our fight.

If they ever launch another terror attack on us from that soil, then we should use tactical nukes on the offenders.

JusticeDelivered | August 12, 2021 at 6:02 pm

Same for Iran.

This is a demonstration of how utterly pathetic the strategy of the ‘smart people’ in the Pentagon and the DoD is.

This isn’t new. Everybody that was in the military or paid attention in the slightest knew that Afghanistan was a pathetically corrupt incompetent bunch that was being artificially propped up in the name of ‘democracy’.

I’ve said it for a while that Afghanistan was a joke because it was idiot politicians and pencil pushers making decisions based on polls instead of actual military objectives. They demanded that we prop up the joke of a ‘government’ in Kabul, while simultaneously refusing to do anything meaningful to actually address the continuing insurgency and open aid from asshole countries like Pakistan because MUH DIPLOMACY. Terrorists openly attacked across the Pakistani border and ran back across it, the Pakistani government knew it and all but openly sanctioned it, and yet the US never did a single thing about it.

We propped up a LAUGHABLY corrupt regime in Kabul in the name of ‘democracy’, knowing full well that they were more interested in installing their incompetent tribal loyalists in every major position, and actively killing/driving out actually competent people because they weren’t slavishly loyal to the Kabul regime.

And this is what it’s lead us to. 20 fucking years and they can’t last 6 months without us, and with the current crop of ‘experts’, we could spend another hundred fucking years there and nothing would change.

Good riddance to this craphole.

    geronl in reply to Olinser. | August 12, 2021 at 8:49 pm

    Putting one tribe in a patch-work quilt country in power over all the other tribes has always worked out so well… Just for examples Biafra or presently the Tigray.

A Turkish general reportedly once said the United States is a great ally until it stabs itself in the back. Once again we fail to stand by people who relied on us. Shameful

Kabul is pretty much all they have left under the “governments” control at this point. I personally don’t see them holding out more than 90 hours – much less 90 days.

    OldProf2 in reply to geronl. | August 12, 2021 at 11:34 pm

    Agreed. I would bet on two to three weeks at the most. Afghanistan won’t have a decent government until the people decide they want one. The US can’t give it to them.

It will be lucky to be 90 hours.

Let’s face it – the Afghans don’t want democracy. How can you blame them? It seems half of America doesn’t believe in it either.

You guys (original, gender-inclusive meaning of this term intended) all miss the point. This was a HUGE victory for our military-industrial complex. We proved in Vietnam that we can kill, maim, & torture lots of natives and Americans, then abandon those folks who helped us while putting themselves in great peril, but in the end we don’t care that we lost the war, so long as the war profiteers get rich. And then, of course, we move on to further mindless depredations and incredible and unjustified expenses to build up the most destructive armories in the world which we will continue to mismanage. That is one of the primary symptoms that our country is headed down the tubes. Regrettably, there are numerous others.

Remember when the Democrats said the Afghanistan would turn into a quagmire like Vietnam?

Was that prophetic?

Was that a set-fulfilling prophecy?

Or was that just a Democrat goal?

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