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Something’s happening here: Trump and Ernst surge to substantial leads in final Des Moines Register polls

Something’s happening here: Trump and Ernst surge to substantial leads in final Des Moines Register polls

If Biden is collapsing this late in Iowa, it’s reasonable to assume he has a late collapse elsewhere in the Midwest that might not yet be captured in polling

The polls are going to drive people to madness, the people that is who obesess about polls. Just because so much of polling is garbage, however, does not mean all polling is garbage.

It might happen that Biden has a sweep, that can’t be ruled out, if he really, truly is ahead by 7.8% nationally (today’s RCP average). That’s double the Hillary national average advantage.

But there are just too many things that don’t align with that narrative, that suggest the national averages not only may be more wrong than in 2016, they may be particularly wrong in the swing states that matter and will decide who wins the electoral college.

I never thought of Iowa as a swing state, but it probably is. Obama won it by 9 points in 2008 and 5 points in 2012, Trump won it by almost 10 points in 2016.

Iowa also famously recently was put by the Cook Political Report into the toss-up column for both the presidential and Senate races, suggesting Trump was going down hard if he was barely hanging on in a state he won easily in 2016. Man, if Trump is running 10 points behind 2016 and Joni Ernst is in serious trouble, then maybe those national averages are right. Depressing.


The Des Moines Register just published its final polls, showing Trump up by a lot and Ernst up by several points.

First, the presidential race, Iowa Poll: Donald Trump takes over lead in Iowa as Joe Biden fades:

Republican President Donald Trump has taken over the lead in Iowa as Democratic former Vice President Joe Biden has faded, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows just days before Election Day.

The president now leads by 7 percentage points over Biden, 48% to 41%. Three percent say they will vote for someone else, 2% aren’t sure and 5% don’t want to say for whom they will vote.

In September’s Iowa Poll, the candidates were tied at 47% to 47%.

The poll of 814 likely Iowa voters was conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines from Oct. 26-29. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Nate Cohn notes:

Trump leads the final Selzer poll of Iowa by 7 points, 48 to 41.

That’s the same margin as their final poll four years ago, which wound up foreshadowing Trump’s Midwestern sweep

Note that this change reflects a Biden collapse. If Biden is collapsing this late in Iowa, it’s reasonable to assume he has a late collapse elsewhere in the Midwest that might not yet be captured in polling:

Now the Senate, where Democrats have been going hard against Joni Ernst, Iowa Poll: Republican Joni Ernst pulls ahead of Democrat Theresa Greenfield in closing days of U.S. Senate race:

Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst has pulled ahead of Democrat Theresa Greenfield in the closing stretch of a contentious U.S. Senate race, according to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

Ernst leads 46% to 42% over Greenfield, the Iowa Poll shows. Another 3% say they plan to vote for someone else, 1% do not plan to vote in the Senate race, 3% are unsure and 4% already voted but did not want to say which candidate they support.

The poll of 814 likely Iowa voters was conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines from Oct. 26-29. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points….

In June, Greenfield led Ernst by 3 percentage points, 46% to 43%. In September, Greenfield maintained that 3-percentage-point lead, 45% to 42%. The margin of error for both of those polls was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Something’s happening here. It could be that there is a late Trump surge, and the late-deciders are breaking for Trump as they did in 2016. It could be that Republican chances of hanging onto the Senate are better than thought.

The Des Moines Register final polling may be wrong, but it’s a sign that it ain’t over, until it’s over — which in the case of several states will be days after Election Day.


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notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital | October 31, 2020 at 8:30 pm

As someone wisely pointed out somewhere yesterday, just because they are still registered Democrats does not mean those early voters are voting for Democrats.

    notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital. | October 31, 2020 at 8:32 pm

    Lots of those registered Democrat early voters are voting Trump and if they’re asked for an exit poll are outright lying and saying they voted for Biden when they did not.

      I tend to believe that Trump voters are highly motivated to give pollsters a a BS response that positions them to be exposed as the jackasses they are.

        I was polled 3 times in a week about a month ago and I lied through my teeth while spewing venom about Trump. If the polls are going to be wrong, let’s destroy them. It seems to be working. Even the pollsters are openly voicing their lack of confidence in their own polls. Just explained why they should be. Let’s get rid of polls!

        It’s a terrible thing that so many Americans have lost just about all confidence and trust in their institutions but at this point, the only way to restore that is to first destroy them and start anew. Same with the big states like CA, NY, IL, CT, and a few others. Let them and their government employee unions go bankrupt. There is no other way.

          sexyfatjew in reply to Pasadena Phil. | November 1, 2020 at 9:04 am

          I don’t respond to polls whatsoever. That being said I have openly told friends and family that I am an ardent Trump supporter. I have lost a couple of friends over this and several relatives have told me I am no longer welcome in their homes. Oh well their loss. KAGA 2020!

    I count campaign signs on my running routes in the morning. In the past, the landscape would be plastered with Democrat candidate signs. But this year, hardly any. Biden signs peaked at 5 and Trump at 2. This past week, none of either.

    Voted Friday. No lines. This strongly suggests to me that the Dem enthusiasm is non-existent. If I were a Dem, I would have voted by mail by now, especially if I were voting for Trump. It’s even more dangerous around here to be a pro-Trump Democrat than Republican.

      The Friendly Grizzly in reply to Pasadena Phil. | November 1, 2020 at 6:24 am

      I’m in the Tri-Cities area of NE Tennessee. The only Biden signs I see around here are near ETSU. Lots of the professors and other staff live nearby, so, this just seems logical. Get more than about two miles from the campus, and it’s Trump signs everywhere.

      I noted a few weeks back that on one car I saw, with the usual Coexist and other such stickers, there was a Biden/Harris 2020 sticker modified to say Harris/Biden. The car’s owner may be a SJW, but at least is pragmatic.

      MattMusson in reply to Pasadena Phil. | November 1, 2020 at 9:28 am

      It’s important to remember that polling is statistical modeling. This is the same process that told us 4 million Americans would die from Covid 19.

      In my neck of the Hoosier cornfields there are hundreds and hundreds of Trump signs, flags and banners of all sizes

      I’ve never seen so many for a candidate in my life

      And, honest to God truth, there are more “Firewood For Sale” signs than Biden/Harris

Close The Fed | October 31, 2020 at 8:34 pm

I’m not worried. Trump is going to win.

Pollsters are either incompetent or they are malicious; in either case they aren’t accurate. All you have to do is partake of some small part of news and find the truth: Trump’s support is gangbusters.

I don’t know that Biden’s support is collapsing in the Midwest so much as the polls are more coming in line with what might reasonably be expected, ie. polls are lying less as less as they get closer to elections just to protect their credibility.

I haven’t seen much written on how having college kids at home, instead of in another state–with lots of schools in the north east–will effect things.

Since mid-October Biden’s been running TV ads out here in Western MA, area code 413, situs of Northhampton which is basically Cambridge of the Berkshires, along with other foolish towns along the Conn. River valley. This valley is dotted with the loony populations of Amherst (home of Zoo-Mass) and other colleges such as Hampshire College and the ultra-feminist screeching Smith College.

Here in W.Mass we’re surrounded by the leftist states of CT, NY, VT. All solid Democrat blue.

So why is Biden spending money out here?

    He’s gotta launder it somewhere.

    Othniel in reply to fscarn. | October 31, 2020 at 9:12 pm

    Maybe to help a House race?

      Not a chance. In MA the real election is always the Democrat primary. This year saw the failed mayor (Alex Morse) of the even more failed City of Holyoke run against long-time, get-nothing-done-except-cashing-his-paycheck D congressman Richard Neal. Morse said he would join up with the Squad. Neal prevailed in this primary (which means he’s a shoo-in next week and therefore doesn’t need Biden’s help).

      Neal won this time. But he’s in his 70s and is hearing footsteps.

      So Biden spending money out here makes no sense. Unless Biden is worried.

        henrybowman in reply to pfg. | October 31, 2020 at 11:22 pm

        Ah, Massachusetts politics is so wonderful. I remember the string of consecutive politicians who ran for Worcester County commissioner on a platform of dissolving Worcester County government, which actually had no true function. When elected, they collected for their full term of doing nothing, and the county government oddly did not get dissolved. Finally, the state itself dissolved the county government in the late ’90s, in reaction to (if I remember correctly) a particularly embarrassing political scandal involving the incumbent benchwarmer.

        Formerly known as Skeptic in reply to pfg. | November 1, 2020 at 7:09 am

        If Biden really is worried about MA, that’s huge (YUGE). I will be there bright and early Tuesday no matter what, but as I’ve said in other comments if MA is in play it’s already over.

I cannot speak for what is happening in Iowa. I can only report as to what is happening here on the Big Island in Hawaii. There are regular Trump sign waving events along main highways and Trump caravans on the main roads. There are virtually NO Biden signs or other activities. All of the sign waving by the Democrats appear to be focused on LOCAL races here on this island.

    Eastwood Ravine in reply to MJHolcomb. | October 31, 2020 at 9:52 pm

    Someone should ask Tulsi Gabbard in private who she’s actually voting for. If she’s really a patriot she has only one choice.

    Mauiobserver in reply to MJHolcomb. | October 31, 2020 at 10:25 pm

    Same on Maui. In my Bible study of about 20 men mostly young local blue collar guys (way younger than me) everyone is for Trump much to my surprise. If the GOP would run a solid candidate for Governor in 2 years that is of Hawaiian or Asian ancestry who is a respected veteran they would probably win.

Polling firms are, belatedly, putting out realistic numbers. They can only continue the ‘push poll’ and under sample likely Trump voters for so long.

Eventually they must stop obscuring the level of support PDJT on the ground and conduct legitimate polls with a makeup that reflects the electorate and report the results. Otherwise their credibility is lost and, more importantly to the pollsters, their ability to sell their services.

Shy PDJT support is real. Go vote. Drive the stake as deep into the heart of the progressive/anarchist hearts as possible on election day.

Hey, what’s that sound? Everybody look what’s going down.

Close The Fed | October 31, 2020 at 9:17 pm

What I’m looking forward to, is Trump unleashed.

Hoping Antifa, deep state, et al., gets it in the jaw.

I think people are just learning to keep their mouth shut. Which means polling is dead as long as the media are captured.

caseoftheblues | October 31, 2020 at 9:24 pm

Cook made the decision to throw his reputation in the garbage in order to push his fake polls like 95% of the rest of them. He should NEVER be considered anything other than the hack he decided to become.

I wonder how many of the early mail in biden voters are regretting their choice as the hunter videos, tapes and other sleaze come pouring out.

Based on the huge Trump rallies, and the embarrassingly (historically?) small attendance at the Biden/Obama events, I think it has to be a Trump landslide. I only hope it continues down ballot.

Just anecdotal and not the Midwest … but my wife was just telling me that she got stuck in a huge rally for Trump in Beverly Hills. She was surprised because it was very diverse. She said lots of non-whites in attendance.

She said she was behind a counter-protest guy in an open jeep wearing prison stripes holding a sign saying “Trump for Prison 2020.” She said everyone ignored him and he exited the rally procession after a couple blocks.

I am split about all the polling.

On one hand I am depressed and worried Biden/Harris/Left will win and destroy the US. (Amnesty for all, open borders, thought police, destroy jobs, sell out to any country they can which they already have I believe taken down payments from China).

On the other hand I believe it is our civic duty to tell pollsters we are all in for Democrats and there is no way they can lose. Leftists are lazy and self centered. If they think they are certain to win they will stay home with feet up if it is raining, cold, too long a line, or etc. Where as I stood out in snow freezing the other day for ages to cote for Trump and I would have no matter what.

It rained the first Brexit vote and was miserable day according to friends. IMO that coupled with the polling of Remain is sure of victory kept lazy Leftists home.

No one has polled me yet but if they did I would be omg Biden Biden Biden. I hope I am not alone but no matter what all those who want to save the US need to go vote Trump no matter the weather or any issue.


Spoke with a US Congressman, this morning, here in NC. He said that as of last night, Republican early voters, would pass Democratic ones, before the end of today.

    IndependentDem in reply to Wade Hampton. | November 1, 2020 at 12:16 am

    May I ask which district? I voted absentee (I work for the USG, posted overseas) a month ago for President Trump, and straight ticket Republican, in District 11.

“This is fracking country. And Trump brought a literal fracking well to the rally because of course he did, he’s Donald Trump.” – Jack Posobic

PDJT is CRUSHING joe biden. If the GOP takes the house back, holds or increases the Senate, the first two years of his administration are going to be glorious.

    Eastwood Ravine in reply to CKYoung. | October 31, 2020 at 9:58 pm

    I think the final debate nailed it. There was that moment when President DJT just let Joe keep on talking… and talking… and talking.

    henrybowman in reply to CKYoung. | October 31, 2020 at 11:28 pm

    Hopefully, a lot better than the first two years of his first term, when the GOP held all the cards and sat on them for two years.

      drednicolson in reply to henrybowman. | November 1, 2020 at 1:35 am

      There’s fewer NeverTrumpers this time around. A good number resigned back in the midterms to throw their House seats to the Dems. And hopefully the GOP Senate lead widens enough to make Mittens and company irrelevant.

Alex deWynter | October 31, 2020 at 9:46 pm

I live in California. Just this morning I saw a black woman in a pro-Trump t-shirt and passed a house in my middle-class suburb with a large US flag flying above a large Trump/Pence flag. I’ve seen a couple of Biden-Harris bumper stickers, which is fewer than I’ve seen for Bernie, but zero Biden flags. With the caveats that the plural of anecdote is not data and I don’t think CA is going to flip outright for Trump, I would not be surprised if he does a lot better in this state than most people expect.

    Don’t forget – CA now has a jungle primary. The real Senate vote is not D vs R. It is the two largest vote getters from the primary. In 2016 that meant 2 democrats and no republicans were on the ballot. It was the first election since I turned 18 that I didn’t vote. The reason was there was no need. There was no way for a Republican to win the Senate – none were on the ballot – and DJT was not going to get the CA EC votes. So when everyone says how much Hilary won the popular vote, I have to wonder how many millions of conservative Californians like me simply did not vote because there was no utility. And let’s face it – very few people thought DJT would be a good president – a conservative president. Many of us thought he would be a joke. He turned out to be the best president in my lifetime, Ronaldus Maximus included (!). I sure as heck voted this time.

Eastwood Ravine | October 31, 2020 at 9:47 pm

Some polling outfits are in for the Democrat’s narrative, but they have to self correct to reality so they don’t have the whole of the pie in their face later.

    Look at their sample weighting. The early polls were weighted enormously to the Dems, and as we approach the election day, the weighting shifts closer and closer to balanced, which makes it look like the Republican is surging when in reality they were pretty far up there already.

I have long felt that Trump would win in an honest (or semi-honest) election.

The wild card this year will be voting fraud by the Communists.

    Colonel Travis in reply to Recovering Lutheran. | November 1, 2020 at 1:43 am

    My thoughts, too. I hope the margin of victory is big enough that the cheating won’t matter. I really don’t know how Biden can be this close. It defies all logic. The polls must be way off, or the amount of honest-to-God morons in this country is at an emergency level.

      “The polls must be way off, or the amount of honest-to-God morons in this country is at an emergency level.”

      Probably a bit of both. I have family members who I used to respect (but no more) who are convinced that ALL of the political strife and suffering in the US has been caused by Trump and his Twitter account, and who plan to vote the straight Communist ticket. They despise Antifa/BLM and the murder and mayhem they caused, but weirdly think Trump is somehow the cause and that all our troubles will magically go away if we give the Communists absolute power.

      One nitwit relative patronizingly assured me that if things gets too bad under the Communists “we can just vote them out like Americans always vote out politicians who screw up.” The sheer stupidity of that remark was physically painful to listen to. Why didn’t the German and Russian and Chinese and North Korean peoples think of that? Just vote their tormentors out of power! It’s so simple yet brilliant that only a Karen could have thought of it!

I’ve been thinking a little more about this “abolish the electoral college movement” and their thesis that the EC disenfranchises voters by “not making their votes count”. Who’s vote is not counted exactly?

Assuming they are real (but that’s a large assumption), all of those Cali votes help turn their state blue. They all count and if enough of them either didn’t vote or voted another way, then that state would turn red. So who’s vote doesn’t count? Can you point out the disenfranchised voter? On the other hand if the EC is abolished, there are entire states that will be disenfranchised. This argument has always been bunk, but I think disenfranchised voter vs disenfranchised state is the way to hammer that home.

    California Democrats aren’t content with disenfranchising Republicans in California, they want to disenfranchise them in Alaska and Wyoming and North Dakota and…

    stablesort in reply to healthguyfsu. | October 31, 2020 at 11:40 pm

    The voter who diligently studies candidates, who has been registered to vote his entire life, who knows where is polling place is, who knows when the polls open and when they close and who takes the time to go to the polls and vote.

    He is disenfranchised by ballots ‘found’ in the trunk of a car; by ballots mailed to an address from on an dirty registration rolls; by the crackhead that sells his ballot in the hood; by all the politicians who advocate for early voting, mail-in voting and late ballot counting.

I believe neither the polls nor the press, so I only know how I’m going to vote.

Remember one important goal of the Democrats and these goofy polls — to use them in court after the election so as to allege that the Pubs have somehow stolen the election.

“But your Honor, the COOK REPORT said we were going to win Iowa!!! They CAN’T be wrong!! The Orange-man-bad STOLE Iowa!!”

That sort of thing. Of course, courts traditionally have held that the only poll that counts is the one done on election day. But this year?

Be ready. Vote.

    nordic_prince in reply to stevewhitemd. | October 31, 2020 at 11:48 pm

    Using polls (especially pre-election ones) as evidence of “cheating” is like using tea leaves to prove you should have gotten an A on a big test. I don’t see how any legitimate court could accept that as evidence.

    Formerly known as Skeptic in reply to stevewhitemd. | November 1, 2020 at 7:25 am

    Not so much in court where polls are unlikely to hold much sway as evidence, but rather in the ‘court’ of public opinion. Unless the win is huge and the pollsters thoroughly embarrassed, Trump will never escape the ‘stolen election’ narrative. It will be Bush/Gore dialed up to 11. There are people to this day who don’t accept that Gore lost FL.

notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital | November 1, 2020 at 1:10 am

Rut Roh.

Brain Freeze: Joe Biden Says Americans Have a Right to ‘Badakathcare’


Analyze polls from the perspective of a poll of pollsters who favor Biden. 85% +

Then, a poll of the % of anti-Trump media (members & articles) 90%

Third, poll the % of media members influenced by other media members.

Fourth, intuit the % of Trump voters who won’t disclose ballot choice to the media because of media bias.

Finally, if the introverted media factor is 90% how would more than 50% of polls be accurate. It seems they may be talking to themselves.

Background questions:
Can you have an opinion about what an opinion is?*¹
² Opinion is defined as a matter of freedom,individual determination.
Facts are given, objective matters such as giraffe or 2+2=4 or George Washington is dead..

To have an opinion about a fact is to have a reservation against reality and to reduce reality to my opinion.
The polls could be accurate with sampling mischief, introverted media and relativist/socialist leaning questions included, however, this coterie of crows could be dead wrong and Trump could win by as much as 5½

The 5% that don’t want anyone to know who they’re going to vote for – those are more Trump voters. That’s 48% +5% equals 53% for Trump. That’s huge!

I’m a conservative that doesn’t subscribe to the lesser of two evils approach to voting. Trump or Biden isn’t a choice. I voted for my dog.

    pablo panadero in reply to BAB. | November 1, 2020 at 6:31 am

    You go to war with the army you have, not the army you wish you have. Punting on first down may eliminate the chance of a turnover, but also means you cannot score.

    Formerly known as Skeptic in reply to BAB. | November 1, 2020 at 7:27 am

    Trump or Biden IS a choice, which you have abdicated to others to make for you.

    BillyHW in reply to BAB. | November 1, 2020 at 8:20 am

    So you’re going to do a write-in vote for unicorns?

    Olinser in reply to BAB. | November 1, 2020 at 9:57 am

    If you honestly think there is the slightest comparison between Biden and Trump, no you are not a ‘conservative’.

    Trump has done more to advance the actual cause of conservatism than any politician since Reagan.

    Biden is a JOKE that will let the deep state run absolutely rampant. The Democrats have already said outright they’re going to pack the Supreme Court, massively raise taxes, ban fracking, go insane with idiocy in their ‘Green New Deal’ in the name of climate change and cease all enforcement of immigration laws.

    There is literally no way to look at that compared to Trump and claim that they are equivalent and still call yourself ‘conservative’.

    So you’re a liar like Jennifer Rubin, who claimed to be ‘conservative’, yet hasn’t voted for actual conservatives for decades.

      Trump is about Trump, and that’s it. Any conservative that votes for him is a sucker, not a conservative.

      I’m proud to have voted for my dog.

        murkyv in reply to BAB. | November 1, 2020 at 2:17 pm

        Like the losers at the Lincoln Project, your idea of “conservative” is something I want no part of

    hopeful in reply to BAB. | November 1, 2020 at 1:20 pm

    good idea. your dog is smarter than you are

    mailman in reply to BAB. | November 1, 2020 at 1:59 pm

    Then you’re an idiot ??

I hate making predictions. I thought UofM was going to blow out MSU for instance. I like pointing out things that don’t add up. For instance, Iowa hated Biden in the caucuses. Are we supposed to believe that was going to change in this election when all he does is stage fake press conferences mostly from his basement and hold silly little “rallies”?

And Trump is busting his but for the job and Iowans appreciate that. Then there’s all these gaffes and the Hunter thing with Biden while Trump has been pretty clean coming down the home stretch with no October surprises.

Add this up and what surprises me is that the people being polled are actually being close to honest for once.

    MaggotAtBroadAndWall in reply to DanJ1. | November 1, 2020 at 7:21 am

    I’d have never believed in a million years Biden would be the Democrat nominee. Democrat primary voters rejected him in ’88 and ’08. So now that he’s in obvious cognitive decline he becomes more appealing?

    I would have been willing to bet my house Biden would not have been the nominee. I really don’t get it.

While this is good for the soul and one’s spirit, never underestimate the Dems ability to cheat. There are reports of last minute registration of dead Dems, etc

Trump will win here without much of a problem. My big concern is down ballot. I’ve done some driving around in the big anthills around here. It’s hard to do because they’re grim and ugly, alien and foreboding with houses packed one on top of the next. The thing I noticed most is that while literally everywhere else there are Trump signs galore with only a very rare Biden sign – but in the anthill, nothing at all. Maybe it’s against their property restrictions, but it’s just weird. We should be OK this year with Trump’s coattails, but his is a cult of personality, not support for Republicans. The big test is going to be in two and four years when that cult of personality is no longer the big draw.

    hopeful in reply to txvet2. | November 1, 2020 at 1:27 pm

    don’t see how anyone can draw conclusions from no trump signs. No trump signs on my street either, and that’s because I don’t want my house egged or my windows broken.

Selzer is reputed to be a pretty good pollster. Her numbers have never been too far out of whack, unlike some others, so i suspect they’re seeing something real. This is extraordinarily good news for the Senate. The Democrats have spent more on the senate race here than even the Biden campaign. I’ve never seen anything like it.
Iowa is most definitely a swing state. Always has been. Bush 2x, Obama 2x, now Trump about to go 2x. Thing about Iowa is, it’s not very ideological. Iowans vote on bread and butter issues and are turned off by too much far right or far left rhetoric. That’s why Steve King got primaried, for example, and it’s why Trump, despite his polarizing presonality, will carry the state vs a Democrat party that has gone too far left with radical nonsense. Iowans distrust extremism and it’s not hard to paint the Democrats as extremist, since that’s actually what they are!

2020: The year polling dies from Wuhan Lung Rot.

Here is what I think will happen. Immediately after the reelection of Trump the terrorist wing of the Democratic Party (Antifa/BLM) will riot nationwide. Then the media will invent a narrative of widespread voter fraud (yeah, yeah, yeah, we all know they deny voter fraud is a thing, but that won’t stop them) in order to delegitimize a Trump victory. Perhaps someone will even drop a fake dossier outlining Russian/Trump collusion for rigging the election.