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Shocker: NYTimes publishes piece saying experts believe pandemic will be over ‘far sooner’ than expected

Shocker: NYTimes publishes piece saying experts believe pandemic will be over ‘far sooner’ than expected

Trump’s Operation Warp Speed “working with remarkable efficiency”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wl_v0yaPGyU

The recent move by the World Health Organization (WHO) to recommend that nations end lockdowns as the chief means of controlling the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus was intriguing.

However, in a recent piece that is nothing less than shocking, a new report from The New York Times says that experts are confident that the coronavirus pandemic will end “far sooner” than originally expected.

Like me, New York Times science reporter Donald McNeil Jr., has been following the pandemic closely since its start. He assesses its current status optimistically:

Since January, when I began covering the pandemic, I have been a consistently gloomy Cassandra, reporting on the catastrophe that experts saw coming: that the virus would go pandemic, that Americans were likely to die in large numbers, the national lockdown would last well beyond Easter and even past summer. No miracle cure was on the horizon; the record for developing a vaccine was four years.

Events have moved faster than I thought possible. I have become cautiously optimistic. Experts are saying, with genuine confidence, that the pandemic in the United States will be over far sooner than they expected, possibly by the middle of next year.

One aspect of the pandemic to watch for is the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) saying that the number of deaths falls below the “epidemic threshold.”

“The ‘epidemic threshold’ refers to the point at which the observed proportion of deaths is significantly higher than would be expected at that time of the year in the absence of substantial influenza, and now COVID-related mortality,” Kristen Nordlund, a CDC spokeswoman, told USA TODAY.

The last few weeks have shown a steady decline in deaths per week attributed to COVID19.

The high in April was over 17,000 deaths per week.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Furthermore, WHO’s executive director for health emergencies, Dr Michael Ryan, said they now estimate one in 10 people may have been infected with the virus. As the virus is airborne, and many of those who are infected are not symptomatic or have very mild symptoms, this seems reasonable.

Given that the global population is estimated to be 7.8 billion, that means 780 million people have had coronavirus infections. The current global COVID19 death total is 1,083,234. Therefore, the Infection Fatality Rate is 0.13% . . . which is on par with the seasonal flu.

Therefore, if this trajectory continues, the pandemic may conveniently end in time for the Christmas season.

New and effective treatment and therapeutic approaches have been critical in the reduction in the number of deaths. McNeil highlights the effectiveness of President Donald Trump’s “Operation Warp Speed.”

Sometime in the next three months, health experts say, the F.D.A. is likely to begin granting approval to vaccines now in the works.

Despite the chaos in day-to-day politics and the fighting over issues like masks and lockdowns, Operation Warp Speed — the government’s agreement to subsidize vaccine companies’ clinical trials and manufacturing costs — appears to have been working with remarkable efficiency. It has put more than $11 billion into seven vaccine candidates, and the F.D.A. has said it will approve any one that is at least 50 percent effective at preventing infection or reducing its severity.

Moncef Slaoui, Operation Warp Speed’s chief scientific adviser and a former pharmaceutical executive who has overseen the development of 14 vaccines, has said repeatedly that he expects some of the candidates that he picked to have 75 to 90 percent efficacy and at least two to win approval by early January.

As election season enters the final phase, it is gratifying to see some real news coming from the NYTimes for a change.

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Comments

2smartforlibs | October 17, 2020 at 4:05 pm

As far as I’m concerned it was a long time ago.

Published in the Times? Somebody will be fired by Monday.

    JusticeDelivered in reply to Whitewall. | October 17, 2020 at 7:27 pm

    “it is gratifying to see some real news coming from the NYTimes for a change.”

    I am wondering if if NYTimes saw their revenue/ratings drop over warped coverage?

    DaveGinOly in reply to Whitewall. | October 17, 2020 at 9:06 pm

    Following an open letter to the management from outraged employees demanding McNeil’s ouster.

As soon as they bring Trump down, which is the point.

    PatriotGal_2257 in reply to maxmillion. | October 17, 2020 at 4:46 pm

    I think Trump will be re-elected handily. Notice how the media’s “sky is falling” attitudes are having no effect after any rally Trump has had, even after his own diagnosis. People are still showing up to the rallies in droves because they want to see him and there haven’t been any reports of any mass illnesses afterward. Biden and the Democrats, on the other hand, have hired Dr. Ezekiel Emmanuel, who you may recall from Obamacare, and who just oh-so-coincidentally has a financial interest in companies who help companies in lockdown open back up, no doubt as slowly and as inconveniently restrictive as possible. I don’t trust Biden or any of the Democrats as far as I can throw them.

      mochajava76 in reply to PatriotGal_2257. | October 17, 2020 at 5:26 pm

      Yes, but the Dems are raking in huge amounts of cash. They can afford to broadcast huge amounts of misinformation

      We know Trump didn’t call white supremacists “good people”, but in a chorus of lies, people don’t always hear the truth

PatriotGal_2257 | October 17, 2020 at 4:26 pm

This isn’t real news. The NYT probably knew this all along and kept it under wraps until now because they, and the people who had ulterior motives in using it, saw that their fear mongering no longer had the desired effect of keeping relatively healthy people scared and in lockdown.

Now what I would really like to see is the prosecution and removal from office of Andrew Cuomo and other government officials who deliberately caused the deaths of so many in nursing homes by putting COVID infected people in with them, instead of properly isolating them on the hospital ship, for instance, which was never used.

Not as honest or rational as it seems. The pandemic is over now. The Times doesn’t want it over now. None of the Big/Gov statists do. So Times says it will be over in another 8 months. Big of them.

Anticipating a Sundowner win and preparing the economic recovery

The Left does not do unexpected journalism, it has a plan and always moves towards it.

Look, this is more political place setting. Right now, the key to quashing the populist movement, in the US and across the globe, it the defeat of Donald Trump. And to do that the pandemic has to continue, with the threat of future lockdowns. But, the global populous has reached the point where it will no longer tolerate such draconian measures. What to do.

Well, the first thing is to produce a light at the end of the pandemic tunnel. This reduces the near certainty that the world will be in total revolt by Christmas. And, in terms of US politics, it does not really affect the campaigns, at this point. But, it sets the stage for the disappearance of COVID-19 as a serious health threat by the beginning of the year. If Biden wins, which most writers for the NY Times assume, he can claim credit for it. If DJT wins, it will not matter because COVID, and its aftermath in the US, was never his fault to begin with.

In order to justify the 180 degree turn around, the WHO now claims that 10%, or more, of the population is infected with COVID. The problem with this is that it is nothing more than a guess whose accuracy is highly suspect. First, all people who test positive for exposure to COVID are being classified as active cases. Of those who test positive for exposure, 70+% of them have no symptoms. In the case of seasonal flu, which we do not test for, estimates of infection rates are based upon symptomatic cases. However, with COVID, only about 30% of the cases are symptomatic. And the number of symptomatic cases, as a percentage of all those who test positive, is only 2.5 million. So the US would have only 2.5 million confirmed cases, not 7 million+. It is entirely possible that the level of natural immunity is much, much higher than is being touted. Now, if all of the deaths attributed to COVID are actually due to the virus, this jacks up the mortality rate tremendously. But, wait a minute. How accurate are the cause of death statistics? We already know that serious inaccuracies have been found in cause of deaths for COVID cases. About the only facts which are somewhat clear-cut, are that those of advanced age and/or with serious co-morbidity issues are at risk of death.

So, ignore the so-called “science” surrounding this virus. Garbage in yields garbage out. It is all political and is designed to further a political agenda or two.

nordic_prince | October 17, 2020 at 5:27 pm

11/4/20.

Leslie, if the pandemic is truly diminishing, what do you make of the reports of a second wave in Europe?

The vile Dhimmi-crats’ Wuhan virus histrionics, fear-mongering and totalitarian “lockdown” edicts were transparently politically motivated, from day one. The spite-filled Dhimmi-crats could only see the virus as a welcome political gift, a cudgel with which to bash POTUS Trump and damage his re-election prospects.

This was obvious to any person possessing a modicum of common sense.

I see more and more businesses that are ignoring the Mayor’s Mask Mandate here, and more and more people giving up on masks…
Of course, I use real masks at work, silicon Rubber with cartridges by 3M… real ones.
The Chinese masks are of minimal value, don’t seal, etc..
And a whole flock of covids can sail through one single pore in them.
People are all worn out with it.
Yesterday, my twin girls turned 10 years old.
We had 9 visiting children, 3 over-nighters.

All from the Luthren school, which is open whereas the public schools are still closed here.

I just checked that, they intend to open for pre to 2nd grade in Mid-November. And my bet is that none of the Public School Staff has missed a single paycheck yet.

President Trump proved this is a three day bug, if caught early on and treated by a real Doctor.

The W.H.O., C.D.C. and F.D.A. have been obstructing treatments from the very outset. To what end???

I recall the Hydroxychloroquine Sulphate debacle where Trump touted it, and then he struck a deal with Modi, and purchased 60 million doses for us.

It was immediately set upon and locked up.
I met with my Doctor and attempted to procure a prophylactic prescription, but he told me the science didn’t support it and no, he would decline that request.

For a drug that has been out there for 70 years and used for many ailments, with little repercussions, I’d have to observe there is little reason to decline the request.

— Other than politics—

Which they value over human life, so it would appear.

The damages of the shut-down have already exceeded all boundaries of common sense.

I cannot begin to fathom the recovey time it will require to reverse the financial damages wrought via the stimulous debts, the lost education time, those unable to work for schools being closed…

This also compounded by fraud, waste and opportunists like my Mayor who grabbed up Millions of the covid money to purchase more buildings to house the homeless in. Of course, once purchased, these buildings will be maintained by my property taxes.
And managed by more municiple employees.

At least, Mayor Burkowitz has stepped down due to his cute little texting scandal.

And I see so many small Businesses that are closed, for sale and many more struggling.

My hope is that Trump, now having been living proof of treatment and an Un-avoidable example, will take the necessary steps to end the lock-down and force the F.D.A. and C.D.C. to quit obstructing our access to treatment, proven or not, as they have nothing better to offer.

And all this brought on to us by the audacity of those that believe we can alter those thigs which are clearly outside of our control.

Sorry for the book.

Grant’sGhost | October 17, 2020 at 5:49 pm

Setting the stage for an improved economy if Biden wins.

The Times is writing this in anticipation of a Biden victory.

Everybody knows that they will declare the epidemic over if Biden wins, and drag it on for four more years if he loses.

The leftists don’t care if this destroys the leftist states, because true believers will simply migrate to other states and turn them leftist as well.

winter is fast approaching, those restaurant owners who barely survived on take out and outdoor dining only will go under once you can;t comfortably eat outside. Many have already closed and will never reopen, the unemployed numbers will rise, then add in a congress that can’t agree on anything except that it is the other partys fault.
We’ve know who the most vulnerable were months ago, protect that group and get everyone else back to a sense of normalcy. We aren’t hearing stories of mass infections of the people who are interacting with the public on a daily basis, the retail store workers, the delivery people. There are many cases on the college campus yet very few are in the hospital.

Just remembered read Sundowner Joe’s town hall transcript, he even changed to lockdown were not needed as long as masks are worn. The lockdown craze will end Nov 4 or .

BierceAmbrose | October 17, 2020 at 9:25 pm

“Second wave” – what the h-e-double toothpicks does that mean?

Accept no claim, especially no analogy, no mataphor, no similie, no slogan, unless they declare specficially, what’s measured, how, by whom.

— What if cases are spiking. OK, we’re testing more, so more positive tests will go with that (if the test works, if we’re getting to an exposed population.) So, that’s good, right?

— What if hospitalizations are spiking. OK, if the threshold for admitting got lower, that’s good — more people are getting treated. Recall that when emergency hospitals in parks, hospital ships and confiscated respirators were all going to be overwhelmed, there were massive thresholds for admitting to a hospital. (Not for discharge to a nursing facility, but that’s another matter.)

BierceAmbrose | October 17, 2020 at 9:27 pm

So, now they’re saying that getting the Kung-Flu might not make you “resistant” and certainly not “immune.”

Funny that that should come out now that there’s enough cases had to lighten up lockdowns even by that perverse logic.

Meanwhile no promises what we’ll get if we do, you know, the thing. It’s like they just enjoy an excuse for making arbirary dikdats.

Gazing into my crystal ball I see that the pandemic called the Chinese Cooties will be over….

……November 4th 2020.

Well… it will die out in areas that allow people to build their immunity system instead of isolating people. Those places with lock downs will still have a horrendous time since all those people don’t have immunity and their immune systems are weakened.

Can’t help to think they are prepping us for when the consensus suddenly shifts to end lockdownd after the election

Many here may be unaware of the growing attention to the phenomenon of “long haulers” – people who have survived COVID only to end up with disabling symptoms similar to fibromyalgia, chronic fatigue syndrome, POTS, etc.

The claim is that it is completely heartless to pin our hopes on herd immunity because it would result in thousands of people with (possibly) permanent disabilities. And it is not confined to the old – there are long haulers of any age. Masks and lockdowns forever!

There are several relevant questions.

What are the statistics of long hauler outcomes? Most of the information I have seen is anecdotal. This is, of course, consistent with the (adjectives fail me) lack of useful and reliable data about just about anything these days – especially COVID data.

Are long hauler outcomes from COVID more frequent or severe than similar outcomes from other viral infections or trauma? Long time suffers of fibromyalgia, etc., might legitimately wonder about this.

How much of the media concern about long haulers is political? The media hasn’t cared much about fibromyalgia, etc., in the past.

We live in interesting times. God help us.

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