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Wuhan Virus Watch: CDC Says Coronavirus Infection Fatality Rate Could be as Low as 0.26%

Wuhan Virus Watch: CDC Says Coronavirus Infection Fatality Rate Could be as Low as 0.26%

Study shows that patients no longer infectious after 11 days. Wuhan lab admits to having 3 live strains of bat coronavirus. Trump suspends travel from Brazil. 9th Circuit backs CA Gov. Newsom’s orders keeping churches closed.

Today’s update features news from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

It appears the agency is, once again, adjusting estimates based on real numbers….in this case, as it relates to the infection fatality rate, which is more than ten times lower than initially assessed.

New estimates released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicate that COVID-19 may have an infection fatality rate as low as 0.26%, a number that is double the seasonal flu but significantly lower than earlier estimates.

Determining the infection fatality rate of the illness has been a critical goal of scientists around the world since the discovery of the disease in late November. Infectious disease experts were shocked at the end of last year and into 2020 at both how quickly the disease spread and how many of those who became ill ultimately died.

In early February, modelers at Imperial College London estimated that around 1% of infections of COVID-19 would ultimately result in death. That number, which is about 10 times higher than the seasonal flu, shocked much of the world, including the U.K. government and most of the 50 U.S. state governments, into shutting down major swaths of their economies and placing many of their citizens under strict stay-at-home orders.

Study shows that coronavirus patients no longer infectious after 11 days

Another study offers a more robust understanding of how long a person could remain infectious.

Coronavirus patients stop being infectious 11 days after contracting the disease — even if they still test positive for COVID-19 on day 12, according to a new study.

Singaporean infectious disease experts said they found that the virus “could not be isolated or cultured after day 11 of illness,” according to a joint paper from the country’s National Center for Infectious Diseases and the Academy of Medicine.

Researchers looked at the “viral load” in 73 COVID-19 patients to measure whether the bug was still viable and could infect anyone.

“Based on the accumulated data since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the infectious period of [coronavirus] in symptomatic individuals may begin around 2 days before the onset of symptoms, and persists for about 7-10 days after the onset of symptoms,” the researchers wrote.

Wuhan lab admits to having three live strains of bat coronavirus on site

More news about a Chinese lab still retaining samples of bat coronavirus, despite the fact the nation’s researchers have clearly shown they cannot handle such items safely.

The Chinese lab eyed as a potential source of COVID-19 has admitted having three live strains of bat coronavirus on-site — but insisted none are the source of the global pandemic.

The Wuhan Institute of Virology has since 2004 “isolated and obtained some coronaviruses from bats,” its director Wang Yanyi said in an interview that aired Saturday, according to Agence France-Presse.

“Now we have three strains of live viruses… But their highest similarity to SARS-CoV-2 only reaches 79.8 percent,” Yanyi said, referring to the coronavirus strain that causes COVID-19.

Trump suspends travel from Brazil as coronavirus pandemic worsens in South America

President Donald Trump has suspended travel from Brazil to the U.S. as the coronavirus pandemic worsens in South America’s largest nation.

The president’s order, published Sunday, denies entry to “all aliens” who were in Brazil two weeks prior to their attempted entry into the United States. The order takes effect May 28 at 11:59 pm ET.

Brazil has rapidly become one of the hardest hit countries in the world as the World Health Organzation warns that the epicenter of the pandemic has shifted from Europe and the U.S. to South America.

“We’ve seen many South American countries with increasing numbers of cases and clearly there’s a concern across many of those countries, but certainly the most affected is Brazil at this point,” Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s emergencies program, said Friday during a news briefing at the organizations Geneva headquarters.

Federal court backs California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s orders keeping churches closed

Few surprises ever come from the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals.

A federal appeals court has backed California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s stay-at-home order banning in-church services to blunt the spread of coronavirus, rejecting an argument from clerics that the governor is treading on their First Amendment right to free exercise of their religious beliefs.

The U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals issued a split 2-1 ruling denying the request for a temporary restraining order against Newsom’s in-church service ban filed this month by the South Bay United Pentecostal Church in Chula Vista, California.

The ruling was issued late on Friday, the same day President Donald Trump demanded governors nationwide allow churches, synagogues, mosques and other places of worship to reopen immediately.


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2smartforlibs | May 25, 2020 at 10:03 am

Yet the propaganda machine still has kool-aid drinkers believing 2.2 million will die and the rate is 3.4%. I just had this debate yesterday.

    TrickyRicky in reply to 2smartforlibs. | May 25, 2020 at 10:11 am

    And I would bet good money that during that debate you were accused of not “following the science”.

    MattMusson in reply to 2smartforlibs. | May 25, 2020 at 11:39 am

    CV-19 is a Senior Killer. I personally calculated the mortality rate for Congregate Living Centers here in NC and it is 14%

    Yes. 14% of all CV-19 cases in Congregate Living Centers die. And, they account for 70% of all CV-19 Deaths in North Carolina.

    CLG’s will need to remain locked down until there is a Vaccine. But, if shops and restaurants are open or closed, it will not impact these numbers. So, everyone else needs to unlock immediately.

      Liz in reply to MattMusson. | May 25, 2020 at 2:05 pm

      If the long term care facilities remain on lock down, I assume that means that the people cannot leave the place as well as family members cannot come in to visit.

      But, what about the staff who come in to care, cook, clean, etc? They would be able to be “free” to move around the city/state and potentially get infected. So, unless there is a daily C19 test for staff, there is still the possibility of continued infection in the LTC facilities.

      And, if a family member can show that they had C19 via positive C19 test with subsequent negative test or with an antibody test, why can’t they visit the loved one in the facility? Or, at least set up some visitation sites outside in the sun and fresh,warm air. The change of scenery would probably help some of the old folks.

      In OK, one section of the daily EO report lists the LTCs with the number of patients & staff infected. 21% of the cases and 50% of the fatalities are linked to the LTCs. Of the LTC infections, 63% are patients and 37% are staff. They don’t breakdown deaths by patients vs staff. However, since 80% of all state deaths are in people over age 65, it would be easy to assume that the patients account for all deaths.

        Milhouse in reply to Liz. | May 25, 2020 at 5:53 pm

        I know of one old age home in South Africa that completely isolated itself. Staff have been staying on the premises and not going home. Deliveries disinfected, etc.

          Sanddog in reply to Milhouse. | May 26, 2020 at 6:52 pm

          Our local retirement center didn’t go quite that far but they locked down in March, absolutely no visitors and all employees tested. They’ve had zero cases.

notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital | May 25, 2020 at 10:33 am

Democrat-Media Complex is now in a full-court press to smear, ridicule and otherwise dismiss said evidence and tighten the shackles. The goal is evident: destroy the economy to destroy the President’s chances for re-election, and failing that, ram through a national vote-by-mail scheme as a backup plan to achieve the same result.

It’s now evident that states and cities that either re-opened a few weeks back or, like Arkansas and South Dakota, never shut down in the first place did not experience the wave of mass death the Democrats predicted. The other big misfire in terms of public opinion is the citizens held hostage in blue state America are venting their anger, not so much at Trump but at the capriciousness and deadly incompetence of their own political leaders. It would be foolish in the extreme to predict that there will be a massive revolt come November; Trump Derangement Syndrome is mighty hard to overcome. But perhaps the anger and frustration of Democrat stalwarts like New York Congressman Max Rose not at Trump but at leaders in his own party cannot be discounted as a one-off:

…[Reacting] to de Blasio’s announcement that any sort of reopening won’t happen until June, Rose compared the NYC mayor’s comments to those of “an elitist dilettante” who “does not understand the struggles of small business owners…”
Pointing out the irony of shoppers being allowed to visit large retailers but not small businesses, Rose speculated that, while de Blasio is likely looking at hospitalization numbers, he isn’t paying attention to “the potential for a continued economic nuclear bomb to go off each and every week in New York City as our small businesses, our mom and pops die…” – Ace of Spades

    most Americans will never know that it is not that bad, since the major networks are still promoting doom and gloom.
    one more thing

    when will they start feeding christians to the lions

      LibraryGryffon in reply to ronk. | May 25, 2020 at 12:44 pm

      And for “Christians” read “those who dont wear masks, whether from choice or medical necessity”.

      I had some nutter go off on me yesterday about why wasn’t I wearing one. When I said it triggers my asthma attacks, he sneered “that’s a poor excuse”.

      I’m getting close to -cidal, just not sure whether its homi-, sui-, or both.

    notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital. | May 25, 2020 at 1:46 pm

    “As a general rule, when the New York Times, the Washington Post, National Public Radio, Public Broadcasting Service, NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, and CNN begin to parrot a narrative, the truth often is found in simply believing just the opposite.

    Put another way, the media’s “truth” is a good guide to what is abjectly false. Perhaps we can call the lesson of this valuable service, the media’s inadvertent ability to convey truth by disguising it with transparent bias and falsehood, the “Doctrine of Media Untruth.”

notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital | May 25, 2020 at 10:37 am

Still More Evidence That Lockdowns Were A Massive Waste Of Time, Money, And Lives

That’s the rate for all infected people. The rate for healthy people under age 65 is vanishing.

notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital | May 25, 2020 at 10:38 am

In a just world, the media of today should never be trusted again, on any subject. Read VDH today:

    buck61 in reply to MAJack. | May 25, 2020 at 12:33 pm

    a very accurate closing line in his essay
    “Trump’s antics simply lured the snails out of their shells and showed the public they were glorified slugs all along.”

the Center for Deficiencies and Confusion…
how could they be wrong!?
they “feel like they are right”…

notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital | May 25, 2020 at 11:04 am

Send in the Clowns ?

Paul Joseph Watson

Chandi Patah

“The Chinese lab eyed as a potential source of COVID-19 has admitted having three live strains of bat coronavirus on-site — but insisted none are the source of the global pandemic.“

Oh, really? History has clearly shown that outside of the secret police and certain aspects of the military Communist governments are notoriously corrupt and inefficient, capable of mind-numbingly stupid decisions. Chinese business thrives in no small measure because of widespread industrial espionage and slave labor. Even raw Communist propaganda – as churned our by the Chinese Communist Party – is so wacky and over the top that no one in the West would take it seriously if the MSM/DNC axis didn’t not carefully repackage it.

So unless you think history has suddenly reversed itself and Communism is now a smoothly-operating system, of course there will be more bone-headed accidents like the one that released the Wuflu on the world.

    just out of curiosity what were they doing with the three stains

      Uh …. it is an imperialist plot by the AmeriKKKan capitalist running dogs of war?

      Lucifer Morningstar in reply to ronk. | May 25, 2020 at 12:34 pm

      They’ll do what they did with the first. So expect the “second wave” of infections and illnesses to occur at some point quite soon now that the Wuhan virus/Wu Flu has turned out to be such a propaganda failure.

      DaveGinOly in reply to ronk. | May 25, 2020 at 3:04 pm

      Researchers go into the field and collect samples (blood, urine, dead bodies, etc.), bring them to the lab and then look to see what they have. In this instance, whatever samples they brought back had three separate strains. Knowing what strains are out there is important, because it can help researchers determine what genetic material is “conserved” from strain to strain in same virus complex (in this case SARS-Coronavirus). Conserved genetic material is often necessary to an organism’s existence, so is consistent from one strain to another. If that conserved genetic material is shown to provide a vulnerability, it can be a target for vaccines and medicines that may be effective against multiple strains.

LookoutABear | May 25, 2020 at 11:29 am

> New estimates released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicate that COVID-19 may have an infection fatality rate as low as 0.26%, a number that is double the seasonal flu


Seriously though, how do we know the actual rate for the flu? We don’t test for it as much as we test for this?

    Mac45 in reply to LookoutABear. | May 25, 2020 at 11:57 am

    Let me put this into perspective for you.

    All of this is based upon estimates. With regard to the influenza statistics, the CDC lumps confirmed influenza cases with unconfirmed cases having flu-like symptoms. This is because the vast majority of influenza cases are not tested or even reported, involving self treatment without a doctor visit. In fact, the CDC went back several years and changed the stats for flu deaths to only those confirmed to be influenza and eliminating the pneumonia and other respiratory deaths. This happened right after COVID became an issue and people began pointing out that the COVID death rate was not significantly higher than that of seasonal flus.

    In the case of COVID-19, many jurisdictions are counting all respiratory failure deaths as COVID, positive test or not, and some are classifying every death as COVID related, no matter what the symptoms, if there is a positive test for exposure, even postmortem. On the flip side, nasopharyngeal tests [nose swab tests] are counting all positive results for COVID exposure as indicating infection, even without symptoms. Now, these tests were never designed to establish the infective agent. When coupled with observed symptoms, a positive test for an infective agent, which causes similar symptoms, can establish that agent as being the LIKELY cause of the symptoms observed. The antibody testing does establish that there was some infection by the viral agent that the antibodies suppress. Nut, even these tests do not establish that the person is currently infected with the virus, only that he has been infected at some time. There is no current test which establishes that an asymptomatic person in currently infected or infectious.

    Any news, which diminishes the narrative of the COVID-19 virus as a catastrophic, apocalyptic disease, is mercilessly suppressed by the media and medical leadership.

We will certainly learn one thing from this disaster if nothing else. Are we a nation of hearty freedom-loving pioneers who took great risks and faced countless challenges head-on? Or have we become a nation of ignorant frightened rabbits? I don’t want to believe it, but I fear the latter.

Keep in mind that the 0.26% number would be an average. Were one to divide the data into 10 year bins it would probably look like 0.000, 0.000, 0.000, 0.002, 0.005, 0.01, 0.5, 1.0% It just amazes me the number of people who still believe this is both an equal opportunity infector and killer.

When challenged about not wearing a mask now, my stock answer is: my rights do not end where your fear begins.

BierceAmbrose | May 27, 2020 at 7:25 pm

Well, given this we do know one thing: the actual case fatality rate is anyting but 0.26%