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UPDATE: Republican Mike Garcia Wins CA25 Special House Elections

UPDATE: Republican Mike Garcia Wins CA25 Special House Elections

AP has refused to call the race, but Garcia has an impressive lead over Democrat Christy Smith

UPDATE: They have called the race. Garcia defeated Democrat Christy Smith 55.05% to 43.95%

The GOP has not flipped a seat in California in 22 years:

Garcia will serve out of the rest of Hill’s term in the 116th Congress until January, but Smith and Garcia will have a rematch in just six months for the regular general election in November to represent the seat in the 117th Congress.

Smith wrote of the special election in her concession statement: “This is only one step in this process, and I look forward to having a vigorous debate about the issues in the upcoming November 2020 election, from healthcare access to job creation, aid for working families, investments in local classrooms to wildfire protection, women’s rights and more. In the months ahead … there is no doubt in my mind that together, we will prevail in the fall general election.”

Garcia also had the diversity the GOP needed:

For Republicans, Garcia was an ideal recruit as a political newcomer and a Latino with a military background for a racially diverse district where the defense and aerospace industries are major employers. As a first-time candidate, he also had no legislative record to attack, allowing Republicans to focus on negatively highlighting some of Smith’s votes.

In addition to national Democrats being concerned with Smith’s fundraising not being impressive enough, according to HuffPost, Smith further got herself in hot water for seemingly mocking Garcia’s military service and credentials for office in a video town hall. She publicly apologized after sarcastically joking of Garcia, “Did you guys know he’s a pilot?”

Original Post

Republican Mike Garcia has an early lead in California’s 25th District special house election. He leads Democrat Christy Smith 56% to 44%.

Garcia hopes to flip the seat to red after a six-month campaign to replace Democrat Rep. Katie Hill, who resigned in October due to a sex scandal.

The 25th District is located just north of Los Angeles. Failed Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won the district in 2016. Hill defeated incumbent Republican Rep. Steve Knight two years later.

The Associated Press has refused to call the election since officials still have to count ballots.

It looks like mail-in ballots helped Garcia:

Republicans tend to fare better in California in elections attracting fewer voters, but Garcia appears to have exceeded party expectations in a race that attracted record participation for a special election. Some 34% of registered voters returned their mail-in ballots, while just a smattering of voters turned up in person at a limited number of polling places.

In an unexpected twist, the all mail-in voting that Democrats across the state demanded and Republicans criticized appeared to benefit Garcia. Older Republican voters returned their ballots in much higher numbers than younger Democrats in the district.

Mail-in ballots postmarked on Tuesday will come in the next few days, but it’s doubtful Garcia will lose his lead.

Dave Wasserman at the Cook Political Report said Garcia could “become the only House Republican from a district Hillary Clinton won with more than 50% of the vote.” From RealClearPolitics:

Wasserman quickly cautioned that the victory could be short-lived because higher turnout in the general election, where Garcia and Smith will face off again, could help Democrats take the seat back.

A key to Garcia’s likely win this time, Wasserman noted, was high-propensity voters who are longtime district residents, skew older, whiter and more Republican. The district’s low-propensity voters are newcomers to the district who tend to be younger, non-white and Democratic.

“They showed up in ’16/’18, but less so this time,” he tweeted.

[Featured image via YouTube]


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stevewhitemd | May 13, 2020 at 11:06 am

Wonder what happened to the ballot harvesting? Are the Democrats keeping their powder dry?

    Edward in reply to stevewhitemd. | May 13, 2020 at 12:01 pm

    There will be extensive harvesting operations come November when this Special Election race will have a re-run in the General. I won’t definitively speculate on the success of any efforts 3 November, but I think there will be a significantly larger turnout of Socialist-Democrat voters in November and, if Mail In voting is statewide, ballot harvesting will make a Socialist-Democrat win a simple proposition – one way or another.

    Frank Hammond in reply to stevewhitemd. | May 13, 2020 at 12:36 pm

    According to my So Cal friends – The Harvesters are paid $16 an hour plus meals and free transportation. They have been trained on how to fill out Grandma’ s ballot, even though Grandma has not had a clear thought in 10 years.

    They started the November ballot harvesting last night. Expect to see the Nov election won by the democrat 98% to 1%.

American Human | May 13, 2020 at 11:07 am

That is of course until the ballot harvesting votes are counted. I certainly expect just enough to overcome his pathetic 17,000 vote lead.

There is still time for all that “Vote Harvesting” to turn the tide

Odd, is allowing strangers to go from house to house and interact with the occupants in any way inconsistent with the lock-down theory? I guess it goes without saying that ballot harvesters are essential workers. Lesson for the future. If you want to work, support the party.

    Edward in reply to Concise. | May 13, 2020 at 12:04 pm

    As it always has been, whether 18th and 19th century spoils system across the nation or 19th to 20th century “Tammany Hall” type Democrat spoils system in NY (particularly the City) and elsewhere.

2smartforlibs | May 13, 2020 at 11:44 am

In breaking News the left is filling out ballots as fast as possible to rig the election.

I have never liked ballot harvesting and voting by mail, especially when is for convenience instead of need. It may be legal, but the potential for fraud grows as more ballots are sent out. Ballot security seems very iffy at best

One of the main features of requiring someone to go to a specific location to vote is election integrity. Poll watchers are allowed to monitor voting if they agree to certain rules about what they can and cannot do. Ballots/voting machines are under the control of election officials who can be held legally accountable. But in ballot harvesting and voting by mail, how can election integrity be monitored except sporadically?

    And, with in-person voting, those of us in enlightened states have the opportunity to prove who we really are before being given a ballot.

      ronk in reply to Edward. | May 13, 2020 at 5:00 pm

      don’t know if that really solves anything, see the Detroit district that 50 voters count 300 votes for Hilliary

Connivin Caniff | May 13, 2020 at 12:03 pm

Let’s hope we can give a lot of D’Rats permanent Stay at Home Orders.

Trunk full of ballots found in 3, 2, 1….

Blaise MacLean | May 13, 2020 at 12:48 pm

Don’t get your hopes up.

Once it has been determined how many votes are necessary for the Democrat to win, some “missing” ballots will mysteriously be “found” and the Dem will win…or, more accurately, be awarded the seat.

In the future for general elections I am going to register as a Democrat. I think that might reduce the possibility of my ballot disappearing.

theduchessofkitty | May 13, 2020 at 3:49 pm

Of course they won’t call the race. The “harvesting” of ballots needs to make up the gap and score a bit higher. They’re getting busy on it as we speak…

BierceAmbrose | May 13, 2020 at 4:48 pm

On last update, 12% lead with 74% of precincts reporting.

Yes, yes, precincts aren’t the same size, but as a first SWAG, the Screaming D’s need not quite 100% at the remaining precincts to take it.

Anybody giving odds? (What is the Magin of Fraud, anyway?)

The opponent has conceded. The car trunk was just not big enough…