Democrats are Panicking at the Prospect of Quick Economic Recovery
“Unlike the Great Depression and Great Recession, economist are predicting a bounce-back the likes of those seen after a natural disaster.”
If you’re hoping the economy stays in the crapper to help your electoral aspirations, you might be a Democrat.
To be fair, Democrats aren’t technically anti-economic growth in post-pandemic America, but they are gravely concerned that any quick bounce-back will give Trump an opportunity to brag about an economic come-back. Or so says a report from Politico.
Jason Furman, Harvard Professor and Obama administration alum, is predicting major economic uptick ahead of the November election, a prediction mirrored by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.
The economic carnage seemed likely to doom President Donald Trump’s chances at reelection.
Furman, tapped to give the opening presentation, looked into his screen of poorly lit boxes of frightened wonks and made a startling claim.
“We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country,” he said.
The former Cabinet secretaries and Federal Reserve chairs in the Zoom boxes were confused, though some of the Republicans may have been newly relieved and some of the Democrats suddenly concerned.
“Everyone looked puzzled and thought I had misspoken,” Furman said in an interview. Instead of forecasting a prolonged Depression-level economic catastrophe, Furman laid out a detailed case for why the months preceding the November election could offer Trump the chance to brag — truthfully — about the most explosive monthly employment numbers and gross domestic product growth ever.
Since the Zoom call, Furman has been making the same case to anyone who will listen, especially the close-knit network of Democratic wonks who have traversed the Clinton and Obama administrations together, including top members of the Biden campaign.
Furman’s counterintuitive pitch has caused some Democrats, especially Obama alumni, around Washington to panic. “This is my big worry,” said a former Obama White House official who is still close to the former president. Asked about the level of concern among top party officials, he said, “It’s high — high, high, high, high.”
Unlike the Great Depression and Great Recession, economist are predicting a bounce-back the likes of those seen after a natural disaster, where growth is swift, even with some amount of business casualties.
Instead, he believes, the way to think about the current economic drop-off, at least in the first two phases, is more like what happens to a thriving economy during and after a natural disaster: a quick and steep decline in economic activity followed by a quick and steep rebound.
The Covid-19 recession started with a sudden shuttering of many businesses, a nationwide decline in consumption and massive increase in unemployment. But starting around April 15, when economic reopening started to spread but the overall numbers still looked grim, Furman noticed some data that pointed to the kind of recovery that economists often see after a hurricane or industrywide catastrophe like the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.
Consumption and hiring started to tick up “in gross terms, not in net terms,” Furman said, describing the phenomenon as a “partial rebound.” The bounce back “can be very very fast, because people go back to their original job, they get called back from furlough, you put the lights back on in your business. Given how many people were furloughed and how many businesses were closed you can get a big jump out of that. It will look like a V.”
Furman’s argument is not that different from the one made by White House economic advisers and Trump, who have predicted an explosive third quarter, and senior adviser Jared Kushner, who said in late April that “the hope is that by July the country’s really rocking again.” White House officials were thrilled to hear that some of their views have been endorsed by prominent Democrats.
“I totally agree,” Larry Kudlow, head of the White House National Economic Council, replied in a text message when asked about Furman’s analysis. “Q3 may be the single best GDP quarter since regular data. 2nd half super big growth, transitioning to 4% or more in 2021.” He called Furman, whom he said he knows well, “usually a straight shooter. Hats off to him.”
Might be time to do a little soul searching when your path to victory requires a country in economic ruin to have any chance of clenching the White House prize.
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Uh, Biden was leading even before the pandemic. He’ll win easily, and bring the Senate with him.
It takes a special kind of stupid to continue to believe polling after the last few election cycles here and abroad. I hope you enjoy living in your fantasy world for the next few months, it will be rough for you when reality comes rolling around the corner in November.
Especially now that the BOOM is here – today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Stocks Soar As NYSE Trading Floor Reopens From Coronavirus Shutdown
Take that Gov. Cuomo and stuff your Lock Up.
The “reality” of 18 months ago when Democrats won the national popular vote by 8.6% and picked up 41 House seats while commenters here said “THE POLLS ARE FAKE!!!”?
Keep down voting, delusional Trumpgoobers.
I saved this page for future reading enjoyment.
November 3. Tick tock.
And now the American people have seen what they got by giving Pelosi, Schiff, and Nadler actual power.
Won’t happen again.
Well then, something for your enjoyment:
Election Fraud 2018 Run Amuck.
Proof of more DEM Fraud.
COVID-19 cuts NYC real estate tax revenue in half
New York’s tax receipts totaled $3.7 billion, falling $7.9 billion from the previous April. That’s a 68.4 percent decline
We have the electoral college to prevent the inevitable disaster that would be caused by a pure democracy. Or didn’t you stay awake in ninth grade civics class?
No. We’re talking Presidential election here, and the polls of 2016 that overwhelmingly predicted a huge win by Hillary. Given the “‘reality'” of the 2016 presidential poll, your assertion that Biden will “win easily” seems foolish.
The dynamics are totally different in 2020 over 2018.
– Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell were seen as the leaders in Congress, and with few exceptions, were failures.
– No “top of the ticket”
– “Russia Russia Russia!” Hoax was in full swing.
– Democrats and their allies were still veiled as to who they really are.
– Gen Flynn had pleaded guilty
– Katie Hill introduced America to “throuples.” Seat lost in a District won by HRC D+7, and Hill D+9 to R+12 in a state with rampant Democrat voter fraud.
– Muller report – couldn’t find collusion.
– Democrats tried and failed to remove Trump for the flimsiest of causes – while a pandemic was spinning up..
– Documents have been released showing that Obama himself was behind misuse of the DoJ and the FBI to get political rivals.
– Prosecutorial and now Judicial misconduct has been exposed in Gen Flynn’s case and Roger Stone. Flynn wants to withdraw his guilty plea, Writ of Mandamus filed. Either way, the Flynn prosecution is now exposed as a sham.
– Abuse of the FISA system by Comey, McCabe etc has been revealed. They have all lawyered up.
– Trump managed to get a new DNI confirmed by appointing an interim DNI who to the Democrats was worse – forcing them to vote to confirm someone they hate & rejected to get rid of the one they hated more.
– Pelosi held up COVID relief for a wish-list of socialism and Democrat power/influence. She passed a $3T additional COVID bill with yet more socialism and Democrat power grabs. The more she talks, the more the country is turned off by her.
– When Trump was holding daily press briefings, he ratings went up. He has some ground to make up with Seniors, but that will be done easily once the antics of governors in NY, PA, NJ become widely known.
– K-Mac is the new Press Secretary, and watching her in action is like watching gladiator olympics. She puts spears through the juveniles pretending to be journalists.
– Trump will be at the top of the ticket
– I have never seen Republicans as enthusiastic as now, and many Democrats who have had enough of the idiocy that is trying to foist a senile fool on us.
– Biden has a number of issues with problems – Fracking for example. He has said he would ban fracking, but that’s a death knell in PA, so he softened it to “no new fracking permits.”
– Trumps fundraising and keyboard warrior setup is better than I’ve ever seen – better than Romney by leagues for less money. Better than Obamas..
– The party of wealthy donors is the Democrats – their large v small donors is 3/5 large to 2/5 small. Trump is 50/50.
– Trump has $107M cash on hand. Biden has half that. Biden’s cash burn rate is higher – for doing what? Dems refer to Trumps fundraising as a “juggernaut.”
People are pissed at what Democrats are doing to this country. Trump represents the best way to set America back towards its ideals. (not the ideal way, the best available way) Anger is a great motivator, and if sustained, perpetuates energy. Hate – the Democrats main tool – is not a good motivator and eventually exhausts people. The trust value of the MSM has dropped significantly. While they still influence, its impact is not as pronounced.
The biggest problem is the polls can be wrong the other way as well as our way. We don’t know the motivations of those taking or funding the polls. Hopefully internal polling is more accurate.
Anyone want to add/correct?
If you say so!
I’m sure his minders will tell him he won, and give him an Etch-a-Sketch to use for writing budget proposals and judicial nomination documents.
This isn’t good enough for parody and it’s too bad to be serious. Whatever you’re doing, up your game.
Lol, my thoughts exactly, too lame to even be worth engaging.
We generally expect a higher level of trolling here.
Ever since WW2, the direction of unemployment in the second quarter of a presidential election year has almost always predicted the result. There were exceptions in 1956 and 2012 for reasons I could explain, but which would take too much space here. The short version is that those exceptions wind up supporting the rule.
The big question now is whether or not the historic pattern will hold this year. The current shutdown was artificially imposed, and the backdrop is one of Trump and the Rs supporting reopening and the Ds opposing it.
Anyone who thinks he can predict the outcome this year is voicing his hopes and nothing more. The traditional link between the spring economy and the fall election is tenuous at best this year.
As someone who’s watched presidential debates for nearly 50 years, I can confidently made one call: The ones this year are going to be unique. Biden is mentally challenged, to put it mildly, while Trump is his usual obnoxious and insulting self. Biden will be playing on Trump’s turf, and will have little choice but to respond in kind. Trump’s biggest challenge, in my view, will be the possibility that his attacks will provoke a sympathy backlash.
I cast a write-in vote last time because I disapproved of both candidates’ character. This leads to my second confident call: I’ll be casting another write-in vote. The specifics are different, but both major parties are broken, and so are the media. It’s as open as I can ever recall it being.
I pretty much agree with your comment, but and there is always a but, the problem is the democrats made their own demise, if the recession,/depression happened naturally I would say they had a real good change of keeping the house and getting the senate but it didn’t it was the result of the virus and how the democratic governors reacted, it’s going to take a lot to get the blame put on Pres Trump, the republicans have their political ads written for them, cuomo put infected patients in assisted living facilities, the same for wolfe and the other governors, the mich governor going after people trying to make a living, all the governors that went after churches, I don’t think the reelect Trump committee has enough money to put up all the add it can. the one more thing the democrats will have to over come is it affected just about everyone in the US.
I agree with your criticisms, but I think the economy will still be the determining factor this year. I just don’t think the second quarter formula will play what has almost always been a nearly automatic factor.
I think the Ds realize it, as the Politico article suggests. I’ve just seen an article suggesting that Team Trump wants to provide a “back to work” bonus. It’s a great concept; if nothing else, it ought to be a powerful answer to the grab bag that Pelosi is floating.
Still, though, this is an incredibly fluid situation, and I expect it to be right up until Nov. 3. In a bunch of ways, the 2020 election will be a mold-breaker. Obviously, one or the other will have to prevail, and that will be followed by people online saying, “See? Told ya so!”
The second quarter criteria in the past probably worked because that’s when people made up their minds; but never in American History have we had a second quarter where the entire world was turned upside down in the second quarter, like happened this time. I think that because of that, the historical second quarter effect is going to shift over to the 3rd quarter, and that will be the determining factor this time.
And the reason for that shift would be that all of the LIV’s who haven’t made up their minds yet are still too shell shocked by what just happened to have decided for sure on anything.
According to who? A left-wing poll with an MOE of 5.8 or 8.9 or an oversample of DMC voted by 10%?
How’s the ramen in the boiler room?
That’s like hearing trash talk from a Washington Generals fan. Try not to sound so desperate.
The ONLY hope of the left is to so demoralize the right that their vote is even more depressed than the vote on the left is destined to be.
Pray tell cgray451, are you “enthusiastic” to vote for Biden? Do you honestly think with all his problems he’ll be the nominee? Or is he just being used as a wedge to prevent a Bernie nomination before a brokered convention when they’ll install someone else entirely? Can you tell us which of Biden’s many qualities endear him to you? Racist? Rapist? Plagiarist? Revisionist? Grifter? Sundowner? Pedophile? Groper? Basement rubber-room dweller?
Yeah, you don’t even need to get out and vote then! Tell your friends!
Biden won’t be anywhere near the ticket by the time the ballots are printed. Get real.
It’s too early to say that. It’s certainly a possibility, but I think that if he seems to be holding up they’ll let him stay on the ticket long enough for the ballots to be printed and then replace him in late October, to get the maximum effect out of the new candidate bump. That would also give them the option, if he’s well ahead, of keeping him through the election and only then replacing him.
Yes, you are correct. And hillary clinton is still winning by a landslide.
That just means Hillary’s girdle broke killing 4 marines and a U.S. ambassador in the landslide…….
I will watch for you crying and wailing on you tube 11-4.
Could you write that in your native Chinese?
Biden dressed to go outside: A mask so he can’t say anything, boxing gloves so women are safe, and a GPS tracker so he find his way home.
His wife was along to read the gps and hold his hand…
Always ask “Why are they saying what they are saying right now?”
There is a purpose. Politico has a purpose. What is it?
So the Democrats want to prolong this recession as long as possible, and the Republicans want to end it as soon as possible. Hmmm, I wonder who I should vote for?
Odious agenda and totalitarian ethos aside, you’d be a total fool to vote for a Dhimmi-crat, at this juncture, just as the economy is attempting to get out of this hole. Dim-witted Biden is proposing the largest Dhimmi-crat tax increase in our country’s history, a nauseating, stinking, putrid, toxic melange of prosperity-killing and entrepreneurialism-stifling Big Government leeching, waste and profligacy. Any Dhimmi-crat who votes for Biden and expects to witness ensuing economic growth and prosperity, is an utter fool.
And the fact that Democrats want to see the economy tank is exactly why I don’t think this whole thing is anything but a ginned up event by the CCP and the Democrats (yes, I know that is redundant). I think the CCP wanted to see our economy implode and they made use of their special friends to see it implode. The CCP either cooked up a special virus or let loose something that they should have had contained. Knowing that the US is incredibly risk adverse these days, they expected their handmaidens in the media to promote death and destruction for them. The rest was easy — a sycophant CDC “expert” proclaiming horror… you get it.
All of the states that are insisting on lockdown are blue states. NYC made sure people died by putting infected people back into nursing homes.
And they will do it again.
Go back over the last 4 years and tell me what the left has done to earn ANY votes.
Not only have I been voting since 1975, but I have an American history degree from what at the time was the 4th-ranked department in the United States.
Lots of things are broken now. One of them is the pattern that held ever since Abraham Lincoln’s second inaugural address, one of the great speeches in this country’s history: the call to unity.
At times, those calls have been more pro-forma than anything, but the Civil War was such a shattering experience that, for 150 years it caused both parties to at least maintain the appearance of trying to attract those who might come over to their side in the next election.
This has not happened since 2016. The Ds immediately declared “resistance,” and Trump has relentlessly appealed to his stalwarts and no one else. So yes, the left hasn’t earned any new votes, but nor has the right. We really haven’t seen this since the 1850s and 1860s, which were the aftermath of Andrew Jackson’s victories in 1828 and 1832.
To me, the question is how deep this really goes. To look at social media, we’re truly broken. But social media is the Land of Hyperbole, and a big discount factor is in order. What’s more worrisome is that the same thing’s been taking place at the level of political rhetoric. At some point, the hyperbole could wind up having more serious consequences.
I don’t agree. Trump has made numerous appeals to the black community, for example, beginning with his “What have you got to lose?” speech during the campaign.
Whether those appeals have been successful is another question, but you can’t say he hasn’t tried.
Trump directly appeals to Americans. He doesn’t have to appeal to every group at every intersection. If someone isn’t listening, they’re not going to vote for him anyway. Why should he appeal to them? And Trump is getting through, hence the “walk away” movement that I have seen in people I know personally, people previously didn’t want to talk about politics and who now can’t not talk about how vile they think the Democrat party. These people weren’t like this a year ago. This is occurring in spite of the 24/7 anti-Trump spin on everything spewing from the MSM.
Try going back over the last 100 years and ask the same question.
I call the vile Dhimmi-crats “worse than worthless,” and, they never fail to exceed expectations, in this regard.
Pelosi and Schumer made a blunder when they went with a three trillion dollar wish list for the next round. They should have submitted something substantive but reasonable. The economy was going to rebound anyway, but now they can’t take it away from Trump and use it for their own.
Because it was sooo outrageous, the Republicans can now control the round and claim it for their own when the economy rebounds. Not only that, but they can use the $3 trillion proposal as a talking point in how the Dems just wanted more pork.
For Trump – MORE WINNING
This election cycle will be, IMO, a referendum on a basic policy preferences blue v red.
At the national level the policy preferences of Pelosi v PDJT.
At state level the preferences of open up v lock it down.
This is where the battle for the independent voters who are open to persuasion will be waged. The remaining mid 40% to the left and right of the middle isn’t in play.
You either believe in individual liberty exercised responsibly by citizens or you believe the people can’t be trusted and must be guided, nudged and regulated.
I don’t know that it goes too far. We have many short-sighted people who can’t look beyond the next step in front of them. I doubt they think that far about their vote…especially millenials.
I’ve heard a crap ton of millenials in the classroom talk about voting without even knowing who they are voting for or why. I’ve literally heard one say: “I don’t anything about either candidate, but I should go vote because it’s my duty.”
Although they may use the word “duty,” their attitude is a reflection of their sense of entitlement, hand-in-hand with a lack of responsibility, as a sense of entitlement always is.
There’s also a duty to at least *try* to be an informed voter.
… but of course, we live in a world that gives credence to a petulant teenager’s opinions on global warming.
Certainly in comparing states it will be freedom vs. government control and the Republicans (who don’t have the best record in the freedom arena, but are far ahead of the Socialist-Democrats) should make that one issue to make videos about.
Sticking with the economy, yes, there will be a seemingly rapid increase in economic output. The problem is, what you choose to measure it against.
If measured against what is essentially a near ZERO economy, at the moment, any increase will be able to be hyped as being significant. However, if measured against the still growing economy with less than 3% unemployment, that we had three months ago, What we will have by summers end, will not be very good. And, if the economy stagnates for months or even years, as the global economy recovers, a lot of Americans are going to be hurt. The political impact if that is of some interest in the short run. But, the long term impact is much more important. And, this does not factor in any potential economic stumbling blocks erected by civil unrest in the the next few month.
Politics is a game. Economics is life.
Got to factor in all the business the Communist Chinese are losing and all the business everyone else is gaining.
They’re counting, conflating, and inferring the body count, with hope that Planned Pathogen (PP) will fail to abort and reduce the viability of the virus from Wuhan (formally known as SARS-CoV-2).
“Might be time to do a little soul searching when your path to victory requires a country in economic ruin to have any chance of clenching the White House prize.”
You are being unduly optimistic in that I don’t think most of them have souls left to search. They’ve handed them gladly over to the Father of Lies, without even caring what they got in return.
So I’m thinking that Biden is wearing a mask to keep us from realizing the audio isn’t in-synch with the lip movement.
But it all makes sense now. If your life is working, you don’t need democrats or liberals at all. They are there, at least in their own minds, to “fix” broken things, and by that I mean, collect and pilfer the money meant for fixing things. Trump is their ultimate enemy because he gets people back to work, and working people are self-sustaining and have no need for democrats or liberals. Just look at half-whit and her plan to prevent people from growing their own food. Talk about blowing the agenda. So the way to defeat Trump, or at least to make themselves appear essential, is for democrats and liberals to destroy and create need.
Portland just passed the $1B homeless tax to fix the homeless problem. But we know that won’t happen. It will bring in enough new homeless people to effectively double the homeless problem, and down the road they will need even more money. On the other coast, AOC sabotaged Amazon bringing a huge complex to her district. She couldn’t have that. If her people had jobs and incomes, well, then why would they need her. In looking at the whole covid fiasco, I can now only see a fireman who is committing arson as a justification for getting a new truck, which they will need to buy from his brother/friend/ etc. That is why they had to shut everything down. Were there any exceptions, then someone would ask “but if that is OK, then why not this?” Seriously, shutting down beaches and hiking trails is literally full-retard in anyone’s world. It is the classic double-down move. And like with Oberlin, the truth will make it twice as bad when it comes out. BTW, cancelling classes kept another crop of alumni off campus and thus in the dark about Gibsons. Old Twillie’s day of reckoning is still coming, and it won’t be getting any better
Sure a homeless tax sounds like a good way to limit their numbers, but how could they collect it? Auction off their shopping carts?!
Oh, that’s not what you meant… 🙁
believe that, in a straight-up contest(without all the anticipated voter fraud), trump would crush biden(or any other dem/lib)–the wild card this cycle will be the extent of the dem/lib voter fraud–remember their mantra ” by any means necessary ” and they should be taken at their word
even with galactic dem voter fraud, believe trump can still prevail if responsible americans do their part
biden’s only stock in trade is tds or ” free shit “–his record speaks for itself–zero accomplishment–a 24k grifter–and even less for the distaff brigade(clinton, warren, harris or the mooch herself)–what a sad and disgusting group of
” candidates “–nothing but anger, hatred, racism, greed and a lust for power–hoping to gain power with hate and ” free shit ” rather than with merit and sound ideas
“Time to do a little soul searching”
First you need a soul.
Furman’s counterintuitive pitch
Nothing counterintuitive about it. In fact, no need to consult intuition, logic will do; it’s been bloody obvious that the economic problem isn’t the virus, it’s government. When government finally takes its lid off the pot, cooking of dinner can proceed as normal. Rebound will be automatic because there is no underlying structural problem.
Now, if a mad molecule was roaming the land dissolving steel, concrete and money, that would be a structural problem which no recovery could ignore. But a virus which (by the numbers, rather than the advertising) is unlikely to inflict death or long-term damage, not so much. Some things may be affected adversely; crowded concert halls, sardine-can subways and elevators, Black Friday sales, and airplane travel (though modern aircraft are disease incubators which have really needed attention for a long time, and that doesn’t seem to have bothered anybody until now). But these are not the things which tank economies.
The takeaway—only government, not the virus, can put the American (and, incidentally, the world) economy in deep-freeze, so government can easily end it. And government is slowly, glacially, starting to do so. The Democrats have no intention of letting this happen. They were hoping this whole affair would be their Reichstag Fire . . . but it looks like they’ll need a bigger fire. I expect they’ll try to start one.
“To be fair, Democrats aren’t technically anti-economic growth in post-pandemic America…”
Couldha fooled me on that one, Kemberlee.
Democratic governors–such as Porky Pritzer Putz here in Illinois, America’s shit hole state, are doing their best to prevent an economic recovery by delaying the end of the lockdown
The only reason biden’s puppetmasters are making him wear a mask is so they can the tennis ball they shoved in his mouth.
Thanks a lot!! How do I unsee THAT mental image?
Churchill told us that the defining feature of socialism is the equal sharing of misery. the Democrats are scared that unless the country stays in the crapper, they won’t have enough misery to go around.
Oh no! A troll typed “tick tock”……we’re doomed!
….and disappeared faster than Hillary Clinton in public