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Berniementum? Sanders Makes Gains in NH Polls

Berniementum? Sanders Makes Gains in NH Polls

Hot streak!

The DNC’s nightmares are playing out in real life and I am here for it.

Once again, headed into the thick of election season, Bernie Sanders’ campaign is picking up serious momentum, which is exactly what dyed-in-the-wool Democrats and their donors do not want.

Headed into Iowa, Sanders has etched out the top spot in the polls and just hopped to the front of the line in New Hampshire, too.

From the Boston Herald:

Bernie Sanders continues to lead his Democratic rivals in New Hampshire just hours before the Iowa caucuses, which could hand him a crucial victory in the first contest of the race, a new Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald-NBC10Boston poll reveals.

Sanders has boosted his support in the Granite State to 31% of likely Democratic voters, a seven point lead over former Vice President Joe Biden and 14 points ahead of Elizabeth Warren, who has stalled at 17%, according to the poll.

Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg is in fourth place at 8%, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar is at just 4% support, and Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard is at 3%.

Just 7% of New Hampshire Democratic voters say they are now undecided.

The Franklin Pierce-Herald-NBC10 Boston poll of 454 likely New Hampshire Democratic voters, conducted Jan. 29-Feb. 1, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6%.

If Sanders pulls off a win Monday night in Iowa — where he is ahead in the polls — he would have a surge of momentum heading into New Hampshire as he looks to pull off a double-barreled victory in the first two states.

“If he should win in both states, he would be the first Democrat that was not an incumbent president to do so since John Kerry in 2004,” said Christina Cliff, assistant professor of political science at Franklin Pierce University.

Last week, Mike blogged about the freakout Bernie’s rise has caused among Democrats:

This Daily Beast report by Sam Stein, Hanna Trudo, and Lachlan Markay suggests that Democratic insiders never thought Sanders would get this far:

Worried Democratic Operatives Scramble to Fund a Network to Take Down Bernie Sanders

A group of loosely affiliated Democratic operatives have been in discussions about putting together an effort to attack Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) should he end up winning next week’s Iowa caucus and, potentially, the New Hampshire primary a week later.

The talks, which two sources described to The Daily Beast, are in their nascent stages, and have already hit a snag. Big money Democrats have shown reluctance at funding such an effort, which could consist of ads attacking Sanders, and institutions associated with Democratic politics have largely shied away from being part of any campaign that goes after the senator, either out of fear over the backlash or growing acceptance at the prospect of him becoming the party’s nominee…

The conversations have been driven by fear that Sanders could all but wrap up the nomination early in the campaign without having faced much pushback. Whereas in 2016, Sanders came under a barrage of attacks from Hillary Clinton over his voting record on guns and—more opaquely—the lack of diversity in his political coalition, the senator, who has significantly broadened that coalition since his last bid, has been relatively unchallenged this go around.

Democrats have valid reasons to be concerned. Bernie Sanders may play well to the Ocasio-Cortez wing of their party. Still, it’s hard to picture voters abandoning the booming Trump economy for the radical changes Bernie is proposing in a general election.

The DNC seems to be working to thwart a Bernie surge, seeing as they just changed the debate entry rules to make space for Bloomberg, their best “not Bernie” option at present.


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legacyrepublican | February 3, 2020 at 3:13 pm

I thought NH accepted the old man fell from the mountain. Guess they think Bernie can replace him.

Lets hope it’s Bernie.

We need a “Which Way, America” election to clear the air. A choice of contrasts via Trump versus Bernie as the respective proxies for the two great approaches to government,

(A) The way of the Founders/Framers (limited government)
(B) The way of the EU/USSR/PRC/UN/Islam model (unlimited government)

There’s no middle road.

Under (A), rights are pre-existing and inalienable, inherent in each person by simply existing. Government is organized, with the consent of the governed, and most importantly with defined limitations, solely to protect those rights.

Under (B), rights are “granted” by government which exists unto itself regardless of the consent of the governed, acting as the final arbiter. Here, what government “gives” can as easily be taken away. And with (B), there are no limiting principles placed on governmental power.

Bring it on.

    notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to pfg. | February 3, 2020 at 4:40 pm


    Besides it’s way past “high” time the Dems went the way of the Copperheads and Whigs.

    Massinsanity in reply to pfg. | February 3, 2020 at 4:43 pm

    Can’t completely agree with your construct, while Republicans are certainly closer to (A) than (B) they cannot claim to be for “limited government”.

    Trump has rapidly expanded government spending and is blowing out the debt worse than Obama did.

    I believe out perpetual deficits and rapidly expanding pile of debt will be our undoing even if Republicans hold the WH, Senate and House.

    We have to start living within our means. Deficit spending/debt doesn’t matter until it does. See 2007-08 for an example from the world of housing debt.

    tom_swift in reply to pfg. | February 3, 2020 at 8:36 pm

    There’s no middle road.

    Actually, all governments are middle road. None are all one or the other.

      fscarn in reply to tom_swift. | February 3, 2020 at 10:12 pm

      Of course you’re right. To varying degrees each one of the 10 planks of the Communist Manifesto has found its way into our laws.

      If I had to guess I’d say that the poster was getting at what should be our general understanding of how we wish to do government: as citizens or as subjects.

Sanders/Clinton 2020, with Sanders experiencing a completely unforeseeable death by heart attack a few weeks or days after his surprising and narrow victory over Trump.

    Right idea, wrong dictator.

    Remember how the young Stalin took over Russia upon Lenin’s death? Hillary is too old and too moderate to serve as Bernie’s replacement.

    I see the young, fiercely Communist AOC as the new Stalin, ready to take over the party and the country when Bernie dies soon after the election. She’ll make Stalin look like a pussycat in comparison to what she’ll do.

      oldgoat36 in reply to OldProf2. | February 3, 2020 at 6:13 pm

      Fortunately AOC is too young, you cannot have an VP who is not Constitutionally able to step in as President upon the death or removal of the President.
      Hillary would never be chosen by this Stalin want to be, but that is because the beach house wasn’t enough payoff for imminent death.

IneedAhaircut | February 3, 2020 at 3:58 pm

Every presidential election cycle there’s usually someone that is anointed very early as the absolute front runner who turns out to be paper tiger. Remember Jeb Bush last time?

This go round I get the sense that the Biden campaign is about to implode. His behavior is getting worse and the effect of all the Hunter Biden / Ukraine news is finally starting to sink in to (D) voters brains.

Taking a wild guess… I’d say this will come down to Bernie Sanders and Mike Bloomberg, mainly because Bernie has the hard-core followers and Mike has the money. Everyone else will quickly disappear.

Let it be so! Please let it be so!

I am so so on polls. They depend on people willing so say what they really think while outside pressure is pushing. The Bernie crowd is the far Left violent Antifa/ Antifa supporting crowd. It is supposedly where the cool hip kids are hanging out and just like all the unicorn haired harpies – everyone on the Left wants to be cool. No one wants to face off against their pro-violence neighbor and say they are not for Bernie. That is a good way to get your car keyed or your yard peed on.

Being non Bernie is MAGA hat light for the Bernie crowd who were outed by Veritas on their plans for all not with them including their fellow Democrats.

I think 2022 or 2024 is going to see a split in the Democrat party as now a part of it is off the rails Socialist/Communist/AntiSemitic (full on Labor style Corbyn).

amatuerwrangler | February 3, 2020 at 5:26 pm

I see the seeds of a 3rd party being sown. I saw a clip of one of his rallies this morning and when he said he/they were fighting the “establishment parties”, naming the Rs to a pretty good cheer, but when he said, “…and the Democrats” he got a huge, prolonged cheer. That told me that a bunch of his followers will not like it if the Ds pull the same tricks they did in ’16 to push him aside these people might not line up with the anointed candidate; they could stay home or they could try a grass-roots push for Bernie under a different banner. Either would be the end of the Dems this time around.

notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital | February 3, 2020 at 6:50 pm

Rut Roh!!! Troubles for Bernie…..

“Shock: Release of Famed Iowa Poll Cancelled at the last Minute After Buttigieg Campaign Complains

You may have heard that the the supposed gold standard of Iowa polls, the Selzer poll commissioned by the Des Moines Register, was cancelled and suppressed for reasons that many find… dubious.

There is some suspicion that the poll wasn’t really thrown into the garbage because some interviewers forgot to mention Pete Bootygag as a candidate, or mispronounced his name.

Some suspect that those are just convenient rationalizations for rubbishing a poll that showed Bernie sanders well ahead of Joe Biden, and which might have caused a stampede of voters away from Biden.”

The Franklin Pierce-Herald-NBC10 Boston poll of 454 likely New Hampshire Democratic voters

This poll is rubbish; mere noise. 454 likely NH Dem voters is a whopping 0.16% of NH’s registered Dems. If only half of them are likely to vote, it jumps to 0.3%; well, woo-hoo. Somebody’s really going to have to work a lot harder than that to come up with some plausible data.