It’s not over for Elizabeth Warren’s campaign just yet, but the warning signs are clearly evident.
With the Iowa Democratic caucuses now less than a week away, candidates for president and their campaign staffers are scrambling to win over undecideds and others who are not fully committed to their first candidate of choice.
For Sen. Elizabeth Warren, however, the race to finish first in Iowa keeps getting more complicated, and seeming more out of reach. Over the last month, she’s struggled to stay in the top three, but has more often than not polled in fourth place behind Pete Buttigieg.
On Monday, a new poll released by Emerson College showed Warren firmly settled into the fourth place position, but now trailing Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who has vaulted into third place going into the home stretch. Mayor Pete has also taken a tumble:
A new Emerson College/7 News Poll finds Senator Bernie Sanders leading the Iowa Democratic Caucus with 30% support, followed by former V.P. Joe Biden at 21%. Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar has surged to third place with 13% while Senator Elizabeth Warren and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg are the other candidates in double digits – Warren with 11% and Buttigieg with 10%.
Compared to the Emerson Poll of Iowa in December, Sanders has picked up the most support, rising eight points. Biden has lost two points, Klobuchar has moved up three points, and Warren has dropped one point. Buttigieg has lost the most support, falling eight points. Yang and Gabbard have each risen by three points, and Steyer has moved up two points.
Not surprisingly, Klobuchar touted the poll results on Twitter:
— Amy Klobuchar (@amyklobuchar) January 27, 2020
On top of Warren’s polling woes out of Iowa comes news that two newspapers in her home state of Massachusetts have officially endorsed a candidate for president in the primaries … and it isn’t her:
The Lowell Sun and the Sentinel & Enterprise, which are both owned by MediaNews Group, published a joint endorsement of Yang on Monday, praising him for his willingness to reach out to all voters. The Massachusetts newspapers, which are published in Lowell and Fitchburg respectively, argued that Yang, similar to Trump, would disrupt “the political status quo” but would do so like “a nimble tech startup and not a wrecking ball.”
“He is committed to the idea that politics should work in the service of people, or ‘Humanity First’ as his campaign slogan puts it. He believes that the government needs to address the hollowing out of industrial jobs for the working and middle classes that has been accelerating in recent years and has hit some communities especially hard,” the newspapers wrote in their editorial endorsement of the presidential hopeful.
Warren is not mentioned anywhere in the piece:
Editorial Endorsement: Andrew Yang the best choice for Democrats https://t.co/TUYYmMgk1Y
— The Lowell Sun (@LowellSunNews) January 27, 2020
While newspaper endorsements are not a reliable predictor of who ultimately ends up winning a race, it’s still an embarrassing turn of events for Warren, who just three months ago created quite a stir in the political world by inching her way up to the top tier.
Is it all over for Warren at this point? Not at all, and for a few reasons.
First, Warren is still in a good position for some possible March 3rd Super Tuesday victories:
CBS News Battleground Tracker:
Across the Super Tuesday states the top tier remains Biden, Sanders, and Warren. https://t.co/4LHQAZJU8Q
(Other candidates at 1% or less) pic.twitter.com/metd3urF2V
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) January 26, 2020
Also, Iowa – like newspaper endorsements – is not always a reliable predictor for who ultimately wins the nomination. That said, it does have a better track record for Democrats than it does for Republicans when it comes to picking the eventual presidential nominee, as does New Hampshire.
But guess who’s also not doing well in New Hampshire? Elizabeth Warren.
Also on the downside for Warren is the whole momentum/snowball thing. If a presidential primary candidate starts winning states early on, the inevitability factor sometimes kicks in and causes primary voters to gravitate more towards who they feel will ultimately be the winner.
That may or may not be the case this primary cycle, however, as Democratic voters have shown over the last two non-incumbent presidential nominating cycles (2008 and 2016) their willingness to drag things out as long as possible for the candidates.
If that happens and there ends up being no definitive winner, we could see a Democratic National Convention in July where unelected super delegates, not voters, decide who the Democratic nominee will be.
That also could prove troublesome for Warren if the delegates lean towards a more middle of the road nominee like Biden that they may feel has more of a chance of defeating Trump in the fall.
So while it’s not over for Elizabeth Warren’s campaign just yet, the warning signs are clearly evident.
— Stacey Matthews has also written under the pseudonym “Sister Toldjah” and can be reached via Twitter. —DONATE
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