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Poll: Elizabeth Warren Sinks to Fourth Place Behind Amy Klobuchar in Iowa

Poll: Elizabeth Warren Sinks to Fourth Place Behind Amy Klobuchar in Iowa

It’s not over for Elizabeth Warren’s campaign just yet, but the warning signs are clearly evident.

With the Iowa Democratic caucuses now less than a week away, candidates for president and their campaign staffers are scrambling to win over undecideds and others who are not fully committed to their first candidate of choice.

For Sen. Elizabeth Warren, however, the race to finish first in Iowa keeps getting more complicated, and seeming more out of reach. Over the last month, she’s struggled to stay in the top three, but has more often than not polled in fourth place behind Pete Buttigieg.

On Monday, a new poll released by Emerson College showed Warren firmly settled into the fourth place position, but now trailing Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who has vaulted into third place going into the home stretch. Mayor Pete has also taken a tumble:

A new Emerson College/7 News Poll finds Senator Bernie Sanders leading the Iowa Democratic Caucus with 30% support, followed by former V.P. Joe Biden at 21%. Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar has surged to third place with 13% while Senator Elizabeth Warren and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg are the other candidates in double digits – Warren with 11% and Buttigieg with 10%.

Compared to the Emerson Poll of Iowa in December, Sanders has picked up the most support, rising eight points. Biden has lost two points, Klobuchar has moved up three points, and Warren has dropped one point. Buttigieg has lost the most support, falling eight points. Yang and Gabbard have each risen by three points, and Steyer has moved up two points.

Not surprisingly, Klobuchar touted the poll results on Twitter:

On top of Warren’s polling woes out of Iowa comes news that two newspapers in her home state of Massachusetts have officially endorsed a candidate for president in the primaries … and it isn’t her:

The Lowell Sun and the Sentinel & Enterprise, which are both owned by MediaNews Group, published a joint endorsement of Yang on Monday, praising him for his willingness to reach out to all voters. The Massachusetts newspapers, which are published in Lowell and Fitchburg respectively, argued that Yang, similar to Trump, would disrupt “the political status quo” but would do so like “a nimble tech startup and not a wrecking ball.”

“He is committed to the idea that politics should work in the service of people, or ‘Humanity First’ as his campaign slogan puts it. He believes that the government needs to address the hollowing out of industrial jobs for the working and middle classes that has been accelerating in recent years and has hit some communities especially hard,” the newspapers wrote in their editorial endorsement of the presidential hopeful.

Warren is not mentioned anywhere in the piece:

While newspaper endorsements are not a reliable predictor of who ultimately ends up winning a race, it’s still an embarrassing turn of events for Warren, who just three months ago created quite a stir in the political world by inching her way up to the top tier.

Is it all over for Warren at this point? Not at all, and for a few reasons.

First, Warren is still in a good position for some possible March 3rd Super Tuesday victories:

Also, Iowa – like newspaper endorsements – is not always a reliable predictor for who ultimately wins the nomination. That said, it does have a better track record for Democrats than it does for Republicans when it comes to picking the eventual presidential nominee, as does New Hampshire.

But guess who’s also not doing well in New Hampshire? Elizabeth Warren.

Also on the downside for Warren is the whole momentum/snowball thing. If a presidential primary candidate starts winning states early on, the inevitability factor sometimes kicks in and causes primary voters to gravitate more towards who they feel will ultimately be the winner.

That may or may not be the case this primary cycle, however, as Democratic voters have shown over the last two non-incumbent presidential nominating cycles (2008 and 2016) their willingness to drag things out as long as possible for the candidates.

If that happens and there ends up being no definitive winner, we could see a Democratic National Convention in July where unelected super delegates, not voters, decide who the Democratic nominee will be.

That also could prove troublesome for Warren if the delegates lean towards a more middle of the road nominee like Biden that they may feel has more of a chance of defeating Trump in the fall.

So while it’s not over for Elizabeth Warren’s campaign just yet, the warning signs are clearly evident.

— Stacey Matthews has also written under the pseudonym “Sister Toldjah” and can be reached via Twitter. —


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Klobuchar reminds me of some kind of distant aunt who shows up at the family reunion and drips spittle on her dress and who everybody tries to respectfully avoid.

Yang reminds me of the Japanese Camera Guy in Caddie Shack.

This is the best they got?

Squaw on life support.

Hey Liz, hey Bernie, hey Amy, how much do you love this impeachment? Missing Iowa yet?

“but the warning signs are clearly evident”

Good enough reason “to have me a beer”

Jokahontas dresses as an inveterate frump. Irrespective, her sophomoric banter about “you didn’t build that” or “you don’t own that” is indelible.

Warren is about as American as she is Cherokee and she shows about as respect to real Americans as she did with representatives of Cherokee Nation when her fraud was first reported in Boston.

I have no idea why anyone would support Warren–she lies constantly and is less likable than Hillary, if that’s possible.

The only fairly bright spot in this whole impeachment fiasco is that when the “trial” gets extended, four Dem candidates are going to be stuck right through the Iowa caucus. Bernie rides again.

Dems want witnesses. May come back to bite them as soon as Hunter and Joe testify.

    CKYoung in reply to JimWoo. | January 29, 2020 at 2:59 am

    joe biden told the president of Ukraine to call obama if he didn’t think joe had the authority to cancel the loan guarantees. So we’re going to need obama to testify in this fake impeachment. Ask obama if he knew joe was going to extort Ukraine. Ask obama if he was part of this scheme or if joe was acting on his own. So many questions for obama. My final question is will liz vote for obama to testify or support sending him a subpoena?

Butthead is just a butthead, but otherwise what a scummy group of people.

The Friendly Grizzly | January 29, 2020 at 7:55 am

“Elisabeth Warren Sinks”. I vonder vott shee iss sinking abaut!

Elizabeth Warren will stay in the race. The Party does not want Bernie Sanders. He’s simply too far left to win Middle America. Then there’s the small point that he isn’t even a Democrat. The party wants Uncle Joe as he is the most centrist, but all this Ukraine malarkey has a good chance to sink him. Where does the Party turn if Joe goes down?

That’s what ‘Liz Beth’ (if I am spelling her Indian name correctly) comes in. She will assume the mantle of Most Electable (or least bad). Policy-wise she will execute a sharp right turn and run to the Center, thereby picking up support and cash from the Party and, ideally, Joe’s former backers.

    notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to Hodge. | January 30, 2020 at 1:17 pm

    Yes, Lizzie Borden….er…Warren who is many times more un-likable than Hilary….

    All those ghosts of land crabs used in her plagiarized NYT salad are going to come back and sink her…..

‘Gradually and then suddenly.’

Ah shoot. I forgot were not supposed to be able to read or find Ukraine on a map.