“the polls are not wrong, just misinterpreted”
The blogger Don Surber has raised a point I’ve been wondering about lately. What if there is a surge in voting which only makes blue areas bluer and red areas redder. Surber also predicts that Republicans will hold the House and Senate.
He writes at his blog:
How do I know Republicans will prevail on Tuesday?
President Trump is a student of Sun Tzu. He wins the war and then goes to battle. He is barnstorming for Republicans across the Trumpiverse like it was his second term.
By the way, the polls are not wrong, just misinterpreted.
In retrospect, the 2016 polls were not wrong either. Hillary won by 2 points. The polls said 3 or 4.
But the polls measured the wrong thing. In 2016, the polls failed to measure the Electoral College.
In 2018, the popular vote still doesn’t matter. Democrats can win the Senate vote by 12 million or more — and wind up losing four seats because most of Democrats are concentrated in big cities and along the coasts.
California’s Senate race will be a shutout that Democrats will win 12 million votes to nothing because there is no Republican on the ballot. Both candidates are Democrats.
Likewise, Massachusetts, New York, and the rest of New England will pile on the votes for Democrats.
Republicans meanwhile will take Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota by a total of 1 million votes.
The net result will be Republicans gaining four seats. Maybe more if West Virginia and a few other states flip.
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