Kavanaugh Bounce? Republicans surge in MO, AZ, ND, and TN Senate Races
Democrat overreach could be the game changer.
Midterm elections are only a few weeks away so we’re watching the polls closer each day. I found that polls for the Senate races in Missouri, Arizona, North Dakota, and Tennessee have the Republican candidates in the lead.
Democrat incumbent Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill is only down a point, but Arizona Republican Rep. Martha McSally slightly raised her lead as she tries to take over retiring Sen. Jeff Flake’s seat.
Before I dive into these races, I want to let you know that I’m keeping an eye on the races in Indiana and Montana. The incumbent Democrat senators have the lead in those two states, but neither one is too safe.
Arizona
McSally received her first lead over her opponent state Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema in September and the latest poll from ABC15/OH Predictive Insights shows McSally still in the lead. From ABC15:
In the latest ABC15/OH Predictive Insights poll, McSally has a six-point edge on Sinema, 47 percent to 41 percent. Eight percent said they had yet to decide on a candidate.
Both candidates received less support than they did in September when McSally held a 49-46 margin, the first time ABC15/OHPI polling showed her in the lead to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Flake.
Chief pollster Mike Noble said increasing approval for President Trump in recent weeks and the addition of Green Party candidate Angela Green, who received four percent in the poll, to the race have contributed to the separation between McSally and Sinema.
“What we saw all year was Republicans were less united compared to Democrats, who were more united or fully united,” Noble said. “So whether they disliked Trump or had issues with the establishment, now what we’ve seen is [the] Kavanaugh confirmation process has really brought all those Republicans home and has solidified the Republican base, hence why you’re seeing all the favorable numbers toward McSally.”
McSally may get more of a boost soon since President George W. Bush and Utah Senate candidate Mitt Romney both plan to visit the state to campaign for her.
The Cook Political Report still has it as a Toss Up.
Missouri
The race between McCaskill and Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley will probably go down to the wire. One poll has the incumbent in front and the next thing we know Hawley has the lead.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics poll has Hawley up with 45% of the respondents, but McCaskill sits at 44%.
McCaskill joined her Democrat colleagues and voted against confirming Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, but this poll looks like her vote didn’t change many minds:
The Supreme Court did not rank highly among likely voters’ priorities in the state. Respondents were much more likely to cite healthcare, the economy or immigration as top issues for them when deciding which candidate to support.
Almost no one listed the Supreme Court as the most important issue.
Healthcare is a top priority:
Sixty-nine percent of likely voters in the state told the poll said they were “very motivated” to support a candidate who would “defend laws that protect healthcare for people with pre-existing conditions.”
That could spell trouble for Hawley. He has said he wants to protect people with pre-existing conditions, even though he joined a multi-state effort to repeal the federal law that does so, the Affordable Care Act, popularly known as Obamacare.
North Dakota
Incumbent Democrat Heidi Heitkamp may not survive in November. A Fox News poll has Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer in the lead, 53% to 41%.
FiveThirtyEight gives Cramer a 68.3% to win and Heitkamp only 31.7%.
Cramer only had a four point lead over Heitkamp before the Kavanaugh vote. Unlike Missouri, voters considered his confirmation a top priority. From CNN:
The latest flashpoint in the race was the battle over the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Heitkamp, who was one of only three Democratic senators to vote for Trump’s first Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch, voted against Kavanaugh after he faced accusations of sexual assault.
For a candidate who has touted her ability to work with the President, the move was politically risky.
Heitkamp was quick to cut a TV ad explaining her vote as a matter of conscience, politics be damned. And though she knows it could hurt her, Heitkamp told CNN she hopes voters see it as another example of her independence.
“I reminded them this is what I do. I don’t take shortcuts,” she said. “I’ve taken some tough votes in the Senate. I’ve taken some tough votes that Democrats haven’t liked in the Senate. I’ve taken some votes that Republicans haven’t liked, but at the end of the day, you have an obligation to do the right thing as you see it, and I think that’s what’s missing maybe a little bit in politics today.”
Tennessee
On Tuesday, the news bragged about how after Taylor Swift’s post about endorsing Tennessee Democrats and bashing Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn, the GOP candidate for the Senate seat, tens of thousands of people registered to vote.
That’s GREAT. Everyone should vote.
But did her endorsement work? Doesn’t look like it since The New York Times Upshot site has Blackburn up on former Democrat Governor Phil Bredesen by 18 points! The poll has Blackburn at 57% and Bredesen at 39%. Only 4% of the respondents remain undecided.
The latest CBS poll has Blackburn up by 8 points with Trump and Kavanaugh as main priorities. From The Tennessean:
In Tennessee, 44 percent of respondents in the CBS poll said their Senate vote would be in support of President Donald Trump, while only 26 percent said it would be in opposition of him. Just 30 percent said their vote would not be about Trump.
The poll was taken at the height of the partisan fight over Kavanaugh’s nomination after Christine Blasey Ford testified on Sept. 27 that Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her while they were in high school. Republicans slammed the allegations as a political stunt orchestrated by Democrats, and the Senate voted 50-48 to confirm Kavanaugh on Saturday, largely along party lines.
The poll found that in Tennessee — where Trump won overwhelmingly in 2016 — 47 percent of respondents supported the confirmation of Kavanaugh compared to 30 percent who opposed it.
“In Tennessee and Texas, where Republicans lead, more voters wanted the Senate to confirm Brett Kavanaugh than not,” the analysis says.
“In each state, views on Kavanaugh divide along partisan lines, with three in four Republicans supporting confirmation, and between six and seven in ten Democrats opposing it.”
Blackburn came out immediately in support of Kavanaugh’s confirmation while Bredesen waited until this past Friday to say he backed Trump’s pick for the Supreme Court, bucking his party on the issue.
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Prediction based on just the last months worth of leftist and media (redundant) talking points:
If they do not win either the House back or the Senate, the party and the media will incessantly harp on how bad “the system” is. They will continue to tell us all how the majority was not represented in the last 2 elections putting the GOP in the WH, how the Senate is populated is bogus, and how the evil, vicious Republicans are manipulating elections by blocking voters, and gerrymandering every district on the planet. It will all be wrapped in accusations of racism, misogyny and white power, among others.
And then they’ll look for reaction, crying “violence”!!!!
Can you say “preference cascade”? I knew you could.
Oh, look. Someone knows an esoteric phrase. We’re you intending to make a point or simply trying to show off?
Oh, look. Someone doesn’t know the difference between “we’re” (“we are”) and “were” (simple past tense indicative of “be”). Sneering at someone (Publius Redux) who used a term familiar to most political junkies (e.g., readers of this site) by someone (casualobserver) who hasn’t yet mastered simple homonyms that should have been learned in elementary school is an unseemly behavior. I imagine that a psychologist might have something to say about envy or even a personality disorder, as in the oft-seen case of a poor student who resents a better student.
Publius Redux put a name to the condition you described in your comment. Your snotty response is unwarranted and beneath you. Correcting people who have made a mistake in vocabulary, sentence structure, or factual matters is helpful. Some people even appreciate being corrected when they have learned something new from the incident and improve their work thereby. You did not do anything helpful in this exchange, other than to set up a small red flag that will make me more careful in considering future comments you might make.
A helpful response might have questioned the applicability of the term “preference cascade” to the behaviors you described in your comment. I am not convinced that it is the correct label. Blogfather and law professor Glenn Reynolds described the idea (originally conceived by an economist) in a 2002 op-ed: average people behave the way they think they ought to, even though that behavior might not reflect their own personal feelings. Moneyrunner explained the term in the context of political propaganda techniques: “… the polls are currently designed to make you believe that you are in a minority, that The One [Obama] is vastly more popular than he is and to increase your feeling of isolation. … What’s a ‘preference cascade?’ It’s people who believed they were alone in their beliefs who suddenly find out that they are part of a much larger group. It’s human nature to not want to be an oddball. It’s human nature not to want to be a one-man revolution. It’s when you find out that most of the people around you share your views that revolutions are made.”
I also question your choice of the word “esoteric” — intended for or likely to be understood by only a small number of people with a specialized knowledge or interest, or an enlightened inner circle. Professor Reynold’s editorial was widely quoted and discussed at the time, and the term has enjoyed popular use ever since, certainly by libertarian and conservative bloggers and their readers.
Was the Kavanaugh gambit the Dems’ October Surprise? Or were they just gambling that it would push the approval past the election or to a new nominee? Looks like it flopped either way.
I suspect that at first, they were just looking for a way to push confirmation past the election. Then, they started getting excited about “Republicans hate Wymyns!” as a campaign issue, and they thought they could scare Grassley and McConnell into demanding his withdrawl.
And then the Republicans in charge stood firm, and the Democrats gave up control to their own howling activist mobs, and then the whole thing went crazy.
Prior to the Kavanaugh circus, voters were giving democratic leaders a charitable pass that the lunatics were just fringy hangers on. But this debacle put an end to that. It’s clear to everyone that the dem party is run by power hungry old wrinkled people who merely use the the young, the stupid and the crazy as puppets. #walkaway
I hope it was a big wake-up moment for many people who didn’t know how bad the (D) party had become. I think it was, but we’ll see for sure in less than a month.
“McSally may get more of a boost soon since President George W. Bush and Utah Senate candidate Mitt Romney both plan to visit the state to campaign for her.”
I told you she’s a RINO.
Given that we just got rid of Flake, I’m not so sure the coveted George W. Bush endorsement will increase her poll numbers.
She’ll probably win, and then I’ll have to listen to 6 years of complaining about the way she votes from the people who elected her.
Making the best of a bad situation. Can’t get a decent conservative to run, much less win the primary
Kelli Ward was a decent conservative. People who say otherwise don’t know what they’re talking about.
So what is your solution? Let the gun hating, illegal loving liberal win? Just like Collins and Murkowski, you have to go with what you can get. The Dems have Manchin and that’s about all they have to deal with.
If the Democrats will be in the minority, yes. Refuse to elect another RINO, then try for another conservative in 6 years. This has the added benefit of removing the “electability” argument from the GOPe next time.
It’s the same thing they did to conservatives in Alabama. They do it because IT WORKS.
“FiveThirtyEight gives Cramer a 68.3% to win and Heitkamp only 31.7%.”
LOL
In reality, Cramer has a 94% chance of winning and Heitkamp has a 6% chance. Nate Silver is skewing the odds again.
GOOD. Today’s “Democrat” party is a full sham – they’ve gone full marxist/leftist/communist in ALL their “policies” and actions.
#PurgeThemAll
A bunch of ex CIA Ops are running as Democrats .
Look for more Kavanaugh like dirty trick ops pre election.
Clearly the other side shot itself in the foot with their shock and awe treatment of Kavanaugh. It’s no surprise that some Red-state candidates have gotten a bump. But it’s still almost four weeks until election day … enthusiasm can wane and things can change quickly.
But — my guess is that Trump has got something up his sleeve. It’ll probably have something to do with all the crap that went on at DOJ/FBI in 2016-2017. All Trump has to do is declassify some stuff, and the DOJ/FBI will be shown to be the corrupt swamp creatures that they are. Trump probably made nice with Rosenstein on the trip to Florida while sending him a clear message that he (Trump) is not quite the lightweight he is perceived to be. This collusion crap has to stop or there will be some serious sturm und drang.
Certainly the Red-state vectors are moving in the right direction, but I think there is an opportunity for a little coup de grâce in the next several weeks. The Dems are certainly vulnerable.
What say you?
Sturm und drang and coup de grâce in the same posting? Sorry, I got carried away.
I’m guessing that President Trump laid cards on the table for Deep State Weasel Rosensteing to see………..after he was checked for recording devices and bugs. And I bet those cards Rosey to loosen his bowels or toss his cookies.
I’m guessing by now that President Trump by now has decided that nominating Jeff Sessions was a mistake and that he has no use for him; may be disposed to dumping Sessions and elevating Rosenstein if there is incontrovertible evidence of treason and other crimes to render him so compromised, that Rosey may be “persuaded” to help MAGA instead of fostering an impeachment Coup D’Etat. For sure: Rosenstein is a a snake and a candidate to be a “Snitch.”
Rosenstein strikes me as the kind of guy who would be a “Snitch” to save his own sorry azz and he’s got to believe that The Trumpster who has been dealing with criminals while building his RE Empire, knows how to “turn” a criminal insider like Rosey into a useful tool. That is likely why President Trump is making sounds like Rosey is a “Good Guy” and won’t be fired………….yet.
I’m guessing that President Trump laid cards on the table for Deep State Weasel Rosensteing to see………..after he was checked for recording devices and bugs. And I bet those cards caused Rosey to loose his bowels or toss his cookies.
I’m guessing by now that President Trump by now has decided that nominating Jeff Sessions was a mistake and that he has no use for him; may be disposed to dumping Sessions and elevating Rosenstein if there is incontrovertible evidence of treason and other crimes to render him so compromised, that Rosey may be “persuaded” to help MAGA instead of fostering an impeachment Coup D’Etat. For sure: Rosenstein is a a snake and a candidate to be a “Snitch.”
Rosenstein strikes me as the kind of guy who would be a “Snitch” to save his own sorry azz and he’s got to believe that The Trumpster who has been dealing with criminals while building his RE Empire, knows how to “turn” a criminal insider like Rosey into a useful tool. That is likely why President Trump is making sounds like Rosey is a “Good Guy” and won’t be fired………….yet.
I actually laugh out loud when the Dem talking heads treat women as some monolithic voting block just as they treat African-Americans. If I hear them warn again about “suburban women”, I’m gonna wet myself. It’s the strategic mistake that keeps on giving and giving.
The thing that I do not understand about many women is why do they take out their hatred on Kavanaugh? He was not convicted or even charged with any type of sexual assault. How is he responsible for the mistreatment of the many women who have been assaulted? There is so much anger directed at him but I do not understand it. I know much of it is paid for and supported by Soros and similar groups but to see many letters to editors complaining about Kavanaugh as if he personally assaulted them.
Former democrat speaker of the house tom foley first used the stratagy as far as I remember: ‘It’s not the nature of the evidence, it’s the seriousness of the charge that mandates an investigation!’ democrats have been using this strategy since. I think they got away with it for so long because the limited number of news sources have acted as the propaganda wing of the dnc. Now we have the internet and independent sources to check into the christine blasey fords ourselves and see if their story makes sense or not.
Google “transference”. Textbook example.
I really wish Charlie Cook would no longer be considered a reliable source on these races. Guy’s a leftist hack.
You don’t need to worry about that. Most of us have considered Charlie Cook to be just another Democrat Polling Agency of the kind that predicted Hillary was going to win. Oh wait………….Cook did !
Why is Ohio never mentioned?
I will be surprised if Sherrod Brown wins re-election.
Ohio is one of those states where all of the unemployed union factory workers have finally sorted out that the dems have been screwing them for years. The Browns lived down the street from us and I’ve been trying to sort his ex’s maiden name to see if she was local, but I suffer from CRS for events over 40 years old. Hey, we might have even had the same 3rd grade teacher. 😉 Sherrod moved to Lorain to get to congress via a retiring representative (Oberlin’s district) and I doubt he would even get elected there this year as it was only slightly blue in 2016.