“The number of Republicans that have been casting ballots, they have to be very happy.”
I remember a few days ago it was all about the Democrats voting early in the midterms and boy they were going to bring a blue wave.
I hate to disappoint the left, but Republicans have shown just as much energy as they have outperformed Democrats in early voting except in Nevada.
Republicans shouldn’t get ahead of themselves since Cook Political Report changed the rating of 10 House races this morning, including eight to favor the Democrats.
As of Monday, 5 million Americans have voted early.
The data also showed that more women have voted early than men in Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee, and Texas. More men have voted in Nevada while in Arizona the same amount of men and women have voted.
You have to remember that Republicans generally beat out Democrats when it comes to absentee voting, which is a form of early voting, and that Democrats outpace Republicans by voting early in person.
North Carolina also reported a huge showing in early voting with 431,000 people showing up after five days. From WFAE:
The number of registered Republicans who have cast early votes is up by 44 percent compared with the 2014 midterm election, according to Democracy NC.
“The number of Republicans that have been casting ballots, they have to be very happy,” [Political Science Professor Michael] Bitzer said. “There was a lot of concern about depressed enthusiasm, but this shows they are as energized as anyone thought they would be.”
Democrats have seen their numbers increase as well, but not by as much. There’s been an increase of 26 percent in registered Democrats voting early compared to the same period in 2014, according to Democracy NC analysis.
Nearly twice as many unaffiliated voters have cast early votes so far, compared to 2014.
Bitzer said one potentially troubling sign for Democrats is that black voters haven’t seen their participation numbers increase at the same rate as white voters. Black early voting is up just 9 percent from 2014, compared to a 52 percent increase in white voters.
People in Cuyahoga County, which houses Cleveland, OH, have voted early, especially with Republican and unaffiliated voters. However, a new law changed a lot of Democrats “to unaffiliated if they weren’t voting once every four years.” From Cleveland.com:
Mail-in and in-person early voting 18 days out from the 2014 general election in Cuyahoga County:
- Democrats: 75,675 voters (55 percent of the total vote)
- Republicans in 2014: 33,964 voters (25 percent)
- Unaffiliated: 26,854 (19 percent)
- Total: 137,053
Eighteen days out in 2018:
- Democrats: 68,760 (44 percent)
- Republicans: 39,080 (25 percent)
- Unaffiliated: 48,206 (30 percent)
- Total: 156,251
How Much Will It Matter?
It is good news for Republicans that more of their voters have shown up. But how much of it will matter?
The Cook Political Report changed 10 races this morning and eight of those went in favor of Democrats. Granted, some not by much, but it could still make an impact.
What changed? Fundraising:
However, Democrats’ staggering success in third quarter fundraising reports injects some last-minute uncertainty. An astounding 112 Democrats outraised GOP opponents in Republican-held seats between July and September. Of the 93 GOP incumbents who were outraised, 20 are currently in our Likely Republican column and 23 in Solid Republican. Democrats’ late dominance in the air wars could produce several Election Night surprises.
Today, we’re changing ratings in ten districts, including eight where Democrats’ position has improved. Democrats now have a clear advantage in 17 GOP-held seats and Republicans have an advantage in two Democratic-held seats. If the 30 Toss Ups were to break evenly between the parties (15 seats apiece), Democrats would score a net gain of 29 seats, six more than the 23 they need to retake the majority.
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