A new Quinnipiac poll shows Senator Cruz up by nine points in the battle for the Texas Senate seat.

Unlike previous polls which surveyed registered voters, the latest Q poll surveyed 807 likely voters.

From Quinnipiac Polling:

Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz has a 54 – 45 percent likely voter lead over U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, his Democratic challenger, in the Texas Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

This is the first survey of likely voters in this race by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll, and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters. Among Texas likely voters who choose a candidate, 93 percent say their mind is made up. That includes 94 percent of Cruz backers and 92 percent of O’Rourke backers.

Women are divided as 50 percent back Cruz and 48 percent back O’Rourke. Men back Cruz 57 – 42 percent. White voters back Cruz 66 – 32 percent. O’Rourke leads 97 – 3 percent among black voters and 54 – 45 percent among Hispanic voters.

Republicans back Cruz 94 – 6 percent, as Democrats go to O’Rourke 94 – 4 percent. Independent voters are divided with 51 percent for O’Rourke and 47 percent for Cruz.

Texas likely voters approve 53 – 44 percent of the job Cruz is doing and give him a 52 – 43 percent favorability rating.

O’Rourke gets a divided 43 – 42 percent favorability rating.

“The Texas U.S. Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz and Congressman Beto O’Rourke, and Democratic hopes for an upset win there, have boosted talk of a Senate takeover. These numbers may calm that talk,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “Congressman O’Rourke may be drawing big crowds and media attention, but Texas likely voters like Sen. Cruz better.”

According to Quinnipiac, immigration is the most important issue for Texas voters, followed by health care and the Supreme Court.

We’ve covered polling for this race extensively and the coastal media’s wishcasting. Regardless of polling, even polling showing a close race, we’ve maintained Cruz is a lock… this time.

I’m looking forward to press spin on this particular poll though.

For our previous coverage on the Texas Senate race, see here.