New Q Poll Has Cruz Up 9 Points Over Beto in Texas Senate Race
Looks about right
A new Quinnipiac poll shows Senator Cruz up by nine points in the battle for the Texas Senate seat.
Unlike previous polls which surveyed registered voters, the latest Q poll surveyed 807 likely voters.
From Quinnipiac Polling:
Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz has a 54 – 45 percent likely voter lead over U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, his Democratic challenger, in the Texas Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.
This is the first survey of likely voters in this race by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll, and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters. Among Texas likely voters who choose a candidate, 93 percent say their mind is made up. That includes 94 percent of Cruz backers and 92 percent of O’Rourke backers.
Women are divided as 50 percent back Cruz and 48 percent back O’Rourke. Men back Cruz 57 – 42 percent. White voters back Cruz 66 – 32 percent. O’Rourke leads 97 – 3 percent among black voters and 54 – 45 percent among Hispanic voters.
Republicans back Cruz 94 – 6 percent, as Democrats go to O’Rourke 94 – 4 percent. Independent voters are divided with 51 percent for O’Rourke and 47 percent for Cruz.
Texas likely voters approve 53 – 44 percent of the job Cruz is doing and give him a 52 – 43 percent favorability rating.
O’Rourke gets a divided 43 – 42 percent favorability rating.
“The Texas U.S. Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz and Congressman Beto O’Rourke, and Democratic hopes for an upset win there, have boosted talk of a Senate takeover. These numbers may calm that talk,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “Congressman O’Rourke may be drawing big crowds and media attention, but Texas likely voters like Sen. Cruz better.”
According to Quinnipiac, immigration is the most important issue for Texas voters, followed by health care and the Supreme Court.
We’ve covered polling for this race extensively and the coastal media’s wishcasting. Regardless of polling, even polling showing a close race, we’ve maintained Cruz is a lock… this time.
I’m looking forward to press spin on this particular poll though.
For our previous coverage on the Texas Senate race, see here.
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Comments
After being told that Bill White was going to beat Rick Perry (White and actual moderate Dem managed 42.3%), and getting ready to welcome Governor Abortion Barbie…I mean Wendy Davis…who managed a whopping 38.4%, forgive me if I don’t get too worried about Robert Francis O’Rourke beating Ted Cruz.
I believe Beto will go the way of an armadillo in TX. He will be run over by Cruz and become road kill.
Considering that the state of Texas currently has just over 15 million registered voters, doesn’t the sample size of 807 seem rather small? A larger sample size would yield a more definitive result.
Not really, once you’ve gotten a suitably large sample.
https://www.checkmarket.com/sample-size-calculator/
“The sample size does not change much for populations larger than 20,000”
That calculator suggests that for a +/- 5% at a 95% confidence interval, the required sample is a mere 385 respondents. It further suggests that this poll of 804 likely voters has a margin of error of about 3.5%
The results are well outside the Margin of Error. That is what counts.
You are correct. The poll’s overall margin of error (MOE) is 4.1%. anything over 2.9% is at best a guess by the pollster, and should be largely ignored as insufficiently based in results. Pollsters disagree with me on this matter, but I find that anything with a margin greater than 2.9% is simply untrustworthy.
That this is a poll of likely voters makes it of interest, but with a MOE this big, I give it zero weight on decision-making.
If Cruz were to lose to Bobby O, then Texas is lost and if Texas is lost so is America.
You really have to be careful with early polls. There is no way to measure how accurate they are — only polls right before the election get measured against actual results. Prior to that your poll can show any result you like, which in turn can be useful for getting your voters worked up to volunteer and donate.
Cruz by 20 points….
Well, may not quite 20%, but far more than 10%.
I would like to thank all the gullible California Democrats who donated to O’Rourke’s campaign. Your money will be flushed straight down the toilet instead of helping some other Democrat stooge.
Good lesson for Cruz (whom I like) You can’t mail it in. You can’t take it for granted.
IMHO, none of the reports on either side of a “close race” were realistic. Every insider says that it would take O’Rourke turning out at least 1 million new voters with 40% breaking Dem for a midterm. The race is reliant on enthusiasm and turnout. Cruz hasn’t taken his voters for granted. He’s gone out, worked for it and kept his base motivated.
On my Tin Hat Planet….. Cruz has been playing with O’Rourke and the national media…. for the shear joy of cleaning O’Rourke’s clock so thoroughly Dems will get violently ill at the thought of spending a dime in Texas for the next 20 years. Once he wins his seat…. gets us comfortable with a protege’ then moves on to the Supreme Court where he makes Kavanaugh look like a fluffy teddy bear…… I have a great imagination don’t I.
This result is probably close to correct, I think Cruz wins by about 8-12 points, about 8-10 less than Abbott wins by.
In my neighborhood , which was always reliantly Republican, there are boatloads of Beto signs. Boatloads.
There are only three Cruz signs, two of which are mine.
I was told Cruz is not wasting his money on signage, I paid for my signs. I live right next door to Austin. Population is changing.
A big part of the sign thing is that Beto’s campaign has turned into this messianic religious campaign for liberals. I know some of the people who are putting the Beto signs out, and they include just about all of the (extemely liberal) leadership of the Presbyterian and Methodist churches here (who have gone full lib and who absolutely hate and despise Baptists and their evangelical allies)
On the other hand, I, and a lot like me, fear to put Cruz signs out because the Left’s goon squads are going to be out sabotaging houses and cars anywhere that’s got a Cruz sign. So we stay quiet, but we’re gonna vote.
I was living on Padre Island in Texas during the Bush-Gore recount. I had to go to Seattle to take care of my mother in law. I had to park my Ford F-250 diesel truck with Texas license plates in downtown Seattle. It never did get vandalized but I worried about it every day.
They probably didn’t know that your “Don’t mess with Texas!” bumper stick was from an anti-litter campaign and though it meant something more sinister.
My neighborhood (north dallas suburb ) is also littered with Beto signs. When I compare dem vote totals in my precint with the number of Beto signs, I estimate that approx 70-80% percent of Beto voters has signs in the yard. The signage for cruz in my area cover less than 5% of the cruz voters.
It should also be noted that about 1/2 of the yards with beto signs also have lupe valdez signs for Gov. For those not familiar with Dallas, she was the elected Dallas county sheriff from 2005 to 2017. She was one of most incompetent, unqualified individuals to serve as sheriff (not corrupt, just totally incompetent).
For democrats, competency and qualifications is not a requirement.
I have two pit bulls, nobody, and I mean nobody is coming on my lawn and I don’t know…
With TDS running full bore through the MSM and liberal circles, I can see many remaining quiet while convicted to voting conservative. The left has become so vocal and in some cases violent and destructive of personal property that is in your best interests to keep your head down, but vote against the left.
I think that in part explains Trump being elected regardless of the polls. And regardless of the fraud.
I’m smart about it, nothing on my cars, you don’t talk politics at work, you WILL lose your job!
But I refuse to give the bastards my front lawn. They may have “Beto”, but I have Jack and LoPan, and I guarantee, it would not be a fair fight.
Got this from Cruz campaign today…
When it comes to honoring our American Flag the difference between conservative Ted Cruz and hard-leftist Beto O’Rourke couldn’t be more stark.
Ted Cruz’s opponent, Beto O’Rourke has been praised by Hollywood and the liberal media for saying that he can think of “nothing more American” than kneeling during the National Anthem.
We can now add stripping American flags from a VFW hall to Beto O’Rourke’s hard-left repertoire.
According to the Navasota Examiner, O’Rourke’s campaign had rented out a Veteran of Foreign Wars hall for a campaign rally and requested that the VFW take down the American flags in the building ahead of the event.
“They wanted to take the flags down, I didn’t only say no, I said hell no, you don’t take the flags off the wall,” said Commander Carl Dry of the VFW Post 4006.
“I can’t believe any American would ask us to do that and I don’t know why he wanted them down or what he was going to put up instead.”
O’Rourke has had his staff working the Liberal-Leaning areas heavily, and has been trying hard to turn out younger voters in the known Republican strongholds personally.
I was at the Blues-Fest in Denton County on September 15, and they had just finished a Beto O’Rourke rally as I arrived. There was a LARGE crowd leaving, and almost all of them were wearing Beto shirts, and had lawn signs under their arms. Denton is a County where EVERY elected official of note is a Republican. EVERY. SINGLE. ELECTED. OFFICIAL. This is the THIRD time O’Rourke has been to Denton this cycle, and the second time since April.
In my home county of ELLIS, Texas, which has been reliably 70% presidential republican vote since 1996, there are a LOT of Beto signs on the main street into Waxahachie (the main town). The Democrat headquarters happens to be in the same building I’m in (several storefronts down), and for the first time since I moved here, it actually has some life to it. This is in a county where the Democrat Party didn’t even bother ATTEMPTING to run a candidate in an open District Court race after the sitting Judge retired suddenly last year.
So either O’Rourke is wasting his time, or he’s moving the needle. I’m not sure which it is yet. I still think that Cruz wins it by 5-8%, but I expect it will be closer than a the total blow-out that it should be.
Denton is also the home of north texas university and texas womens university. Lots of young folks.
When I went to school there in the mid seventies, the city was dry. Closest place to buy beer was 10 miles south or 10 miles east. There were three elections during my school time to get the city voted wet. All three elections voted wet, (the first two were thrown out on technicalities). the third election was won with about 65% of the vote.
All three elections were strongly supported by the young students. I registered to vote in denton county solely for the wet dry election.
However, my sense is that students wont register to vote in the county unless there is a particular election of interest. In my case it was the wet dry election.
Beto has been to Hollywood so many times to fund raise for his campaign, he will be the third Senator from California instead of the junior Senator from Texas.