As usual, it’s all going to be about turnout.
Voters in the left are extremely motivated to vote in the midterms this November. They are driven by rage. They’re angry that they lost the 2016 election, they’re angry that they’re losing control of the Supreme Court, and they hate Trump with the fire of a thousand suns.
People on the right recognize this and can make up the difference. Polls show both sides are fired up. First, let’s look at the left.
From the Pew Research Center:
Democrats have edge in 2018 midterm voting preferences
With less than 50 days until the 2018 congressional elections, Democrats hold a 10-percentage-point advantage over Republicans on the generic ballot among all registered voters.
Today, 52% of registered voters say they support or lean toward the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district, while 42% say they prefer the Republican candidate.
The share of voters who say they support or lean toward the Democratic candidate is slightly higher than it was in June (48% then, 52% today), while the share who back GOP candidates is little changed (43% then, 42% now).
Democratic candidates have a 23-point edge over Republican candidates among women voters (58% to 35%). By contrast, men are roughly evenly divided in their preferences: 48% of men support the GOP candidate, 45% say they prefer the Democratic candidate.
See the chart below:
This is the section of the Pew report which should concern right leaning voters:
Voters express record high levels of enthusiasm for a midterm
As the election approaches, a growing share of voters say they are “more enthusiastic than usual about voting” – and the share expressing this is now substantially higher than in any midterm election since the question was first asked two decades ago.
In June, 51% of registered voters said they were more enthusiastic than usual. Three months later, 61% say this, which is 14 points higher than the prior high for this measure (47% in October 2010)…
Among those who support Democratic candidates, reported levels of enthusiasm are much higher than in past midterm years: Two-thirds (67%) say they are more enthusiastic than usual; by contrast, fewer than half said this in midterms dating back to 2006. Among GOP voters, 59% say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting – on par with the share saying this in October 2010 and modestly higher than in 2014.
Here’s another graphic:
Now, let’s look at another poll, this time Gallup which suggests Republican voters are just as certain to vote:
Certainty of Voting Is Flat
Today’s heightened enthusiasm may not translate into higher turnout than in previous years, as a separate measure shows that Americans claim to be no more certain that they will vote in November than has been the case in previous elections.
Fifty-eight percent of U.S. adults describe themselves as absolutely certain they will vote. That is identical to Gallup’s final measures in 2014 and 1998, but lower than in 1994, 2006 and 2010.
Today’s level of certainty is consistent with Gallup’s early pre-election trends, from 1954 to 1982.
Still, Democrats and Republicans express a fairly high certainty of voting, with 72% and 70%, respectively, saying they are absolutely certain they will vote in November.
Overall certainty is suppressed by the low percentage of independents (43%) who are sure they will vote. This pattern is similar to 2014, perhaps reflecting independents’ desire to opt out of today’s polarized political environment. However, it differs from 1994 through 2010 when independents were closer to Republicans and Democrats in their certainty to vote.
In a way, the Democrats’ treatment of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh has been helpful. It is an excellent reminder to voters of what life will be like if Democrats retake the House or Senate.
Anger can be a great motivator and the Kavanaugh circus is making people angry.
One thing that is not being captured in the media/Dem coordinated "Destroy Kavanaugh" campaign is how unspeakably angry it is making a huge percentage of the population. It is the one word people keep saying to me. Male and female. They are *angry.*
— Mollie (@MZHemingway) September 26, 2018
Trump supporters, Republicans, conservatives, and people of every other stripe on the right had better show up at the polls in November, or be prepared for the Democrat Inquisition of 2019.DONATE
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