Should Ted Cuz be Worried About New Polling Showing the Race a Dead Heat?
Yes, but not for the reasons the media is talking about
A new poll conducted by Emerson shows the Texas Senate race in a dead heat, which Cruz leading by one tiny little point. That said, the poll only had a sample size was small, as only 550 registered voters were surveyed, making it the second smallest sampling of the election season.
The only poll with a smaller sample size (of 441 likely voters) showed Cruz up by only two points.
In the 2016 election, Emerson also had Clinton winning by a landslide, so there’s that.
Anyway, despite the flat numbers showing candidate preference, Emerson published age breakdown of candidate preference, but not ethnicity, which in a state as diverse as Texas is just a little bit odd.
Even so, according to Emerson’s survey, a whopping 21% of respondents are still undecided.
Where Cruz should be concerned, is overall favorability, which is significantly lower than other Republican Texans, like Governor Abbott, a statistic consistent across numerous polls this election cycle. His failed presidential bid and the fact that he ran for president just four years into his first term in office soured many a previous supporter.
There is a stark difference in voter perception between the two Republican candidates running for re-election. Abbott has a 47% favorable and 33% unfavorable with 18% neutral and 2% never heard of him, Cruz has a 38% favorable and 44% unfavorable with 18% neutral and less than 1% have never heard of him.
The disparities in popularity and in the two elections appear to be driven by Independent voters. Ted Cruz has a 57% unfavorable rating among independents and a 25% favorable rating, conversely, Abbott, the other Republicans has a 41% unfavorable and 37% favorable rating among independents. These numbers play out in the ballot test where O’Rourke leads Cruz 45% to 25% among independents..
I still don’t see Cruz losing this time around. He still carries an average of a 5.5 point lead over O’Rourke, and studies have shown that Republican voters are consistently underrepresented in polling for Texas elections.
I still maintain O’Rourke’s goal this go-round was not winning but laying the groundwork for 2024. I doubt his campaign or Cruz’s thought the race would be this close. With the influx of blue state refugees and Texas’ changing demographics, Cruz will likely get through this time but should be prepping for a knockdown, drag-out fight come 2024.
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This seems like unfounded, conventional wisdom to me. I’m not saying it’s definitely wrong, I’m just saying – how do we know this until election day? He didn’t sour me, for example. I don’t know anyone who’s saying – “well, he ran for president, so I’m gonna sit this election out.” Is this actually a thing?
Voted for him in 2012, but I went to a Cruz rally yesterday because I’d never seen him in person. I was impressed by his enthusiasm and energy. Didn’t hear anything yesterday that turned me off, other than the fact that leftists from out of state cannot shovel money in this state fast enough. It was good for Cruz to acknowledge this. All the support you’re seeing in yard signs, TV ads – this is not Texas money. They are trying to create an impression that socialists have taken over. The same thing happened in 2016, I saw so many Hillary signs it was ridiculous.
There simply are not enough (D) voters in this state to elect a (D) statewide – especially one most left wing D-bags in Congress.
That said, anyone in Texas reading this – vote for Cruz, tell people you know to vote for Cruz. Do not assume he will win this easily.
Would that be his visit to the Colony yesterday — Lava Catina?
I was there too.
If you saw the guy in the white cowboy hat who got the ‘last question’ at the end, but didn’t ask a question so he could say he had Cruz’s six. He was in a black shirt. Anyway I was seated at the same table just across from him.
Haha, yeah how could anyone miss him? I was on the other end at one of the tables.
By the way – this is why the Fake Hispanic isn’t going to debate Cruz this Friday: he’s going to LA to be on the Ellen show that day instead.
Gotta go suck up to all the people who bankroll him.
Black shirt wearing dark glasses, teal polo shirt, dark polo shirt? Brown cap, black cap, or grey beard?
I’m making sure I get back to Houston from a trip so that I can vote for Cruz! I wouldn’t sit this election out for the world.
Also, vote for Culberson- his opponent, Lizzie Fletcher, is just another private school educated, trust fund baby who is following the limousine liberal pattern of the Kennedys.
I see we both vote in the same CD (formerly Potomac Dr. here, now absentee from Slovakia). Is there a Libertarian running against Culberson this year?
I’ve often commented that I look forward to my sixth vote for Cruz this November (Senate Primary, Primary run-off, Senate General, Presidential Primary, Senate Primary so far). I obviously didn’t hold the Presidential run against him, I voted for him in both the 2016 Presidential and 2018 Senatorial Primary elections.
Cruz 60. Snaggletooth 40
I doubt his campaign or Cruz’s thought the race would be this close.
What implies that it’s close? Yet another useless jerkwater poll does not a close election make.
With only 550 persons sampled, they are basing their results on a sample size of LESS than 2 persons PER COUNTY. And although they don’t put detail their methodology well, I can guarantee you that most rural counties were not polled at all, and they only surveyed the major population centers. Ie, the dem strongholds.
What’s more important is that Cruz is treating the race as though it might be close and he’s keeping his voters engaged….
Considering how wide open the 2016 Presidential field was, it wasn’t dumb to throw his hat in – I think he might have been expecting a Romney style nomination process, because no one saw Trump coming – I doubt it’s a mistake he’ll ever make again.
As for platforming O’Rourke for an upcoming year, his campaign is nearly identical in operation to Abortion Barbie…. and when did you last hear from her. When he looses this race, he’s headed to the obscurity dustbin with Davis and the Castro Bros. Seems like beaten Dems in Texas don’t have a long shelf life.
In the primary, O’Rourke got 600k votes, Cruz got 1.3M votes.
The polls don’t account for turnout.
P.S. Don’t forget to notice the 21% undecided. While you might think that should be evenly divided between the parties, you would be wrong.
Cruz will win by double digits. We get these bogus polls every election cycle in Texas. Thankfully, according to the liars taking the polls, we’re all in-bred, toothless morons incapable of reading. So the Democrat activists in the media don’t have any sway in our elections. Well, their polls do drive us to the voting booth, but we don’t tell them, so they’ll never know.
Yeah, I remember the Texas gubernatorial race with Abortion Barbie. And we all know how close that was. 😉
To be fair, how many of us actually tell pollsters and callbankers of any flavor the truth?…. ’cause that’s where Trump came from.
It ain’t close, it’s just prog propaganda.
True, Cruz is not very “like-able.”
On the other hand, Beta O’Toole is on the record favoring:
1) open borders
2) the welfare state
5) gun confiscation
This is Texas we’re talking about. Beta will get crushed.
OH yes, But don’t forget he favorsa DRESS also
Democrats are running on weed
I predicted it 7 years ago
I know it is helping them in Illinois. Maybe it is also helping in Texas.
Republicans made a similar mistake in 1932 with respect to Alcohol Prohibition.
We need an alternate reality tag. For MSM narratives on how Trump is rounding up gays for the labor camps and Texans soured on Cruz.
Not sure what it is, but there is just something “off” about that cowboy in the leapord skin boots over there. Anyone else getting the same vibe?
Not a bit. it is a crooked fake poll like the rest of them. Tools of the left.
I’ve seen Cruz in a very small setting and he is a charming guy with very good control of his message. But like so many, GWB included, when they get on TV they go into a “Must not make a mistake” mode and they become wooden. He and Greg Abbot were the two best speakers at the Res State event here in Atlanta prior to the last election. I was a Cruz supporter but his iron-clad conservative nature would have made it hard for him to be elected. Texas has a lot of fruitcakes moving into the state but they haven’t reached the tipping point yet. Cruz by 10 points.
Open borders are already working…it’s the long game!
This soros-funded poll probably has hillary klinton still winning by a landslide – and Mccain as leader of the century.
How’s this poll: 4 out of 5 dentists wont vote for Snaggletooth o’rourke.
Saw an article touting a poll claiming that 4 out of 5 Democrats would vote for McCain for President today.
The fact that they don’t list ethnicity is the tell for how they (mis)weighted this poll.
Cruz will win by 7 or 8 but the fact that it will be that “close” should tell Texans they have to get that wall built-on its border with CA.
Cruz wins, Ginsburg dies, Trump appoints Cruz to the Supreme Court, left commits suicide. What’s not to like!!!
How I’d LOVE to see Ted on the Supreme Court!!!!
Now that’s some good fantasy politics right there
I live in TX. I hold nothing against Ted. He was doing everything he could on the ground during Harvey. Everyone saw him there.
I’m voting for him, and so is my husband.
Besides, Texans love their freedoms, their guns, their churches and the USA. They don’t love illegals, open borders, or anyone who threatens their life and their freedoms. Calling for “decriminalizing border crossings” as Beto has done only calls for anarchy and the end of Texas as we know it.
Not to mention that Beto is insinuating he’s the real “Hispanic”… going against a real one. Go figure.
If we want to be sure about this one, we better call upon President Trump to show up over there and endorse him, in full public view. That’s the only way.
Ted Cruz’s non-endorsement of President Trump at the 2016 Convention really soured me. Unfortunately, here in Texas we have two Senators who are not supportive of our Administration.
If that soured you, what does Beta do to you?
As much as we need Trump, and I did support him very early – when he tricked the media into covering the families of those killed by illegal aliens — Trump has made a couple of errors.
McCain wasn’t running against him and his insult of McCain cost us kenyan care repeal.
And I know he was running against Cruz, but he should have been more temperate and not criticized Cruz’s wife and father. Unsure he did criticize his father.. maybe someone else did.
Regardless, with respect to these two men, he hurt himself and us in the process. I don’t blame Cruz; Trump went too far on the Heidi Cruz thing. Not saying he should be or should have been politically correct; just unwise to appreciate that Cruz is human and his wife is human, and you insult too far and that will bite you. Cruz is in the senate and he didn’t think carefully enough that you need allies in the senate.
That Cruz didn’t endorse Trump doesn’t bother me one bit. I understand. Don’t agree – but I understand.
As far as I know, they both have buried the hatchet.
They have and IIRC, Trump has endorsed Cruz.
Get over it, I was a supporter of Cruz over Trump and I got called everything from a cuck to a fake, and I got over it to support Trump.
You Trumpbots better get over it and get out for Cruz. If he loses in 2018, Trump gets bumped in 2020. I would suggest that if you’re going to obsess over 2016, that you remember that Trump (and his pal at NE) is the one who slandered Cruz, not the other way around – but Cruz still has been one of his leading supporters in the Senate.
“”Unfortunately, here in Texas we have two Senators who are not supportive of our Administration.””
That’s a flat lie.
What Trump deserved was a good old fashioned Texas ass-beating for the way he lied about Ted and his family. Instead he got a mild brush-off at the convention and then nothing but support in the Senate. The Trumpaloos need to pull their bunched-up panties out of their cracks and get on with things, most of the rest of us have.
TYPO ALERT: Should Ted Cuz be Worried About New Polling Showing the Race a Dead Heat?
Would still like to see Trump throw Cruz on SCOTUS. And since cultural appropriation is such a thing, why aren’t the lefties completely pissed about “Beto”? Just kidding, it was a trick question, everyone knows the democrats are complete hypocrites.
Secure the seat then go for SCOTUS
Let’s hope the Republic of Texas keeps its senses and re-elects Cruz. I’m a big Cruz supporter, but his personality turns many off. If only he could lose the nasal voice, the brylcreem and his “insurance agent” persona, he would win in a landslide.
Cruz has nothing to worry about personally, but he needs to get out and hustle to help Republican congressional candidates, even the worthless, leftist, establishment ones. The public exposure will help him, and, maybe, prevent the Democrats from taking control of the House.
This election is only about the numbers, to keep the Democrats from controlling Congress. Trump isn’t going to get anything he wants from the Republican leadership anyway. He will have to go the public and put the fear of being voted out of office in individual members (so that they fear the voters more than the party) to get any of his agenda passed — but there won’t be the opportunity to do that, if the Democrats win a majority.