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Should Ted Cruz Be Worried About the Q Poll Showing the Race a Dead Heat?

Should Ted Cruz Be Worried About the Q Poll Showing the Race a Dead Heat?

What does the data say?

Quinnipiac University released a poll Wednesday showing the Texas Senate race in a dead heat, with incumbent Sen. Cruz and his Democrat challenger, Rep. Beto O’Rourke within points of each other. Cruz’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error.

First, the poll’s findings:

The closely watched U.S. Senate race in Texas is too close to call, with 47 percent for Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz and 44 percent for U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, his Democratic challenger, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

There are wide party, gender, age and racial gaps, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds:

O’Rourke gets 87 – 9 percent support from Democrats and 51 – 37 percent backing from independent voters, as Republicans go to Cruz 88 – 6 percent;

Men back Cruz 51 – 40 percent, while women go 47 percent for O’Rourke and 43 percent for Cruz;

Voters 18 to 34 years old go Democratic 50 – 34 percent, while voters over 65 years old go Republican 50 – 43 percent;

White voters back Cruz 59 – 34 percent, as O’Rourke leads 78 – 18 percent among black voters and 51 – 33 percent among Hispanic voters.

Sen. Cruz gets lackluster grades, including a 47 – 45 percent job approval rating and a 46 – 44 percent favorability rating.

O’Rourke gets a 30 – 16 percent favorability rating, but 53 percent of Texas voters don’t know enough about him to form an opinion of him.

Texas voters “like Ted Cruz as a person” 47 – 38 percent. Voters “like Beto O’Rourke as a person” 40 – 13 percent with 47 percent undecided.

The Q Poll surveyed just over 1,000 self-described registered voters with the following breakdown:


Republican 31%
Democrat 24
Independent 36
Other/DK/NA 10

Despite the Q Poll, Real Clear Politics still lists the race as “leans Cruz.”

There are a few questions I’d like answered before getting too riled up here: 1) What’s the location breakdown of the poll, and 2) how many polls were completed in English vs. Spanish (participants had an option), and 3) why were independents oversampled?

A poll published in January had Cruz up 18 points and a poll published by lefty outfit, Public Policy Polling. It’s findings were as follows:

Texas is a huge state with very distinct cultural pockets. Where people are from makes a difference here.

The quickest way to lose any race is to assume it’s already been won. Every race, even those that should be a shoe-in, ought to be treated like a battle.

The Cruz camp didn’t release a statement on the poll but instead, sent a fundraising email.

As of now, we simply don’t have enough data to determine the accuracy of the Q Poll. Could be close, could be an outlier.

Whether the poll is truly indicative of state-wide support (and I question that it is), Cruz can’t take this race for granted. He has deep fundraising pockets, the benefit of having run a state-wide and nation-wide campaign, and a solid support base.

O’Rourke’s camp is hungry and organized. Whether their goal is to win or just make a dent, they’re not going down without a fight and they have plenty of out-of-state money pouring into to help. Add to that the Democrat Party’s desperation for a victory somewhere, anywhere, especially in a red state, and you can bet they’re putting everything they have into this race.


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run ads about Beta’s anti-gun stance, and i think you’ll peel away a bunch of Texans who are otherwise Demonrat voters…

can’t make it the sole focus, but it’s a big vulnerability down there.

“Should Ted Cruz Be Worried About the Q Poll Showing the Race a Dead Heat?”

Uh…no. Cruz will stomp O’Rourke.

    gospace in reply to Ragspierre. | April 19, 2018 at 7:56 pm

    Something’s wrong with reality. I agree entirely with Rags.

      bhwms in reply to gospace. | April 20, 2018 at 12:58 pm

      At any point, did the world flash bright, or did you walk through a mirror? I’m thinking parallel dimension, but it would have had to be something that impacted a bunch of people in various places in the country at once.

Actually yes, the makeup of Texas has changed in the last few years, the immigrants from the late great state of California have been moving in en mass, bringing their shi$$y politics with them.

    aka Hoss in reply to ronk. | April 20, 2018 at 9:40 am

    People moving from any blue state shouldn’t be able to vote in their new state for at least 15 years. They’re probably culpable for creating the conditions from which they had to flee, and why take a chance, so why let them come sh*t in someone else’s nest after they pooped in their own.

This is already feeling like Wendy Davis all over again. The entire summer of 2014, it was “Wendy Davis is catching up to Abbott!” and “Wendy Davis has momentum!!!” and “Wendy Davis is within the margin of error for Victory in the latest poll!!!”

and then on election day, it was Abbot, 59%, Wendy 38%, a 21 point margin. Which is what it had been all along.

    Exiliado in reply to Tom Servo. | April 20, 2018 at 7:32 am

    Democrats control the media, and they don’t seem to know any strategy other than the “self fulfilled prophecy”. They always go for it, being natural liars and all.

      Firewatch in reply to Exiliado. | April 20, 2018 at 9:56 am

      I’m not sure about other Texans, but when a stranger calls and starts asking questions I might not be entirely honest with them. I’m old and it’s how I have fun.

The Dems will bus in lots of undocumented aliens on election day.

Well, geewillikers, in a state of 28 million, over 13 million of them registered voters, Q polled … about a thousand. What a monumental accomplishment.

This poll is mere noise. No useful information whatever.

These polls always come out showing the Republicans behind. Their only intent is to demoralize. Don’t fall for the FUD.

    That might not be entirely their fault– an awful lot of conservatives don’t bother with polls, now that it’s so obvious that they’re usually going to be for lies.

    Add in that they still have issues with folks my age– actual Millennials, starting with those who graduated about the turn of the millennium, thank you very much, not using the term for “kids these days” or “the youth presented on TV”– not being willing to put a big target on ourselves and tell random callers “yeah! I totally believe something that will get me destroyed, personally, if the wrong person hears about it, right I trust you it’s totally anonymous, when you called my personal phone“….

    Polls are going to be worth even less than they use to until they figure out how to get a decent sample, after they squandered the trust they had.

2nd Ammendment Mother | April 19, 2018 at 8:58 pm

Had to go back and check, Q was calling Wendy Davis in single digits to Abbott a couple of days before the election.

just fake news

Nobody should EVER feel safe until the election is over.

However, Quinnipac is notorious junk polling. They massively over-sample liberals or independents and are frequently 10+ points off from actual normal polls.

Robert O’Rourke will not be sworn in next January. He will no longer be a member of the House and he won’t be a new member of the Senate.

All the polls in 2016 predicted Hilliary would win in a landslide.

Has something changed in the polling business?

“The same cultural safe spaces that blinkered coastal elites to candidate Trump’s popularity have rendered them blind to President Trump’s achievements on behalf of ordinary Americans. While pundits obsessed over tweets, he worked with Congress to cut taxes for struggling families. While wealthy celebrities announced that they would flee the country, he fought to bring back jobs and industries to our shores. While talking heads predicted Armageddon, President Trump’s strong stand against North Korea put Kim Jong Un back on his heels.”

Ted Cruz

Just for the resident Cruz supporter(s)

“What does (sic) the data say?”

This is out of the ‘Hillary by a landslide’ playbook. Cruz is a good man and will stomp the left wing socialist O’Rourke.

I find the poll hard to believe when Cruz got more votes than all the dem primary candidates combined….but you never know.

Publius Redux | April 20, 2018 at 10:36 am

Quinnipiac? Please, don’t make me laugh – what does Quinnipiac know about Texas? Nothing. Exhibit A? A poll of Texas that has, as its sampling 36% Independent and 10% “I don’t know” (so 46 % of Texas is either independent or unaffiliated in any way? Ahem – no. Texas has generally been running anywhere from 48% Republican to 53% Republican 40-42% democrat with only a very small libertarian/independent/unaffiliated about 3-5% and +/-1% loony (Communist/green party – stuff like that – yo know, crazy people).

So a poll of Texas that is made up of registered (not likely) voters and is 31% Republican and 46% independent/not affiliated is abject nonsense. Strangely enough Cruz still leads in this.

Show me a poll of likely voters a little closer to the election with a 49/40 Repub/Dem split with a 10% independents and a 1% loony and I will start to take it a little more seriously. A little more, but not much. Most polls are crap these days. This one is just more so.

    2nd Ammendment Mother in reply to Publius Redux. | April 20, 2018 at 1:42 pm

    O’Rourke is using text messages to “engage” with all the numbers originating in Austin. Definitely out of the Obama playbook.

Here we go again! What did the presidential election tell us about polls? Most are agenda driven and have built in biases. Cruz will win and the only poll that matters comes on election day.

Just another part of the media driven narrative that a “blue wave” is certain to happen.

O’Rourke may have lots of out of state cash, but Cruz should be able to put him away. Cruz just needs to remember that no election is “in the bag” and that he needs to play all the way into the end zone.

OleDirtyBarrister | April 20, 2018 at 4:28 pm

In addition to oversampling voters identifying as independent, the pollsters could easily skew the poll by oversampling urban voters and young voters.

Ted will stomp Beta Boy on election day. But Ted did hurt himself in the Presidential election and by appearing at the convention and giving that speech. I infer that he agreed to write that short review on Trump in Time magazine because it is an election year and he needs to appear to be supporting Trump and the cause.

    Good points, ODB. As Kemberlee points out, too, the location of the sample matters. Texas has become home to an inordinate number of former-Cali/silicone valley types who lean left. Happily, they tend to congregate in (certain) urban areas like moths to a regressive flame.

    As to Cruz’s convention speech, shrug. Done is done. He’s totally on board with the President now, so he sets himself well apart from the Graham, Collins, Heller, Murkowski, McCain regressive appeasers. He is no Jeff #NeverTrumper Flake, and he’s no John I could have won with 3% of the GOP vote Kasich. Cruz is a valuable Trump ally; how insane would it be for Trump supporters to turn on him, particularly based on the primaries? Pretty darned insane.

      “…how insane would it be for Trump supporters to turn on him, particularly based on the primaries?”

      Just as insane as it is for Cruz supporters to hate Trump. Which is to say, Insane.

      Cruz will get all the Trump support, no worries there.

        I know of only one Cruz supporter who hates Trump (ahem, Rags). There may be others, of course, but I don’t know them (and as a Cruz supporter, I know one or two others 😛 ). My point, I guess, was that Trump needs all the support he can get, and that he’s simply not in a power position that would allow him the luxury of purity tests going back to the primaries. To cull from the Trump Train herd anyone and everyone who once did not support his presidency but now does is not just myopic, illogical, politically-obtuse, and Constitutionally-challenged but is also just mind-numbingly moronic. Trump knows this, and obviously, you do, too.

          Oh, there’s a few others, small numbers no doubt. But commenting here at LI, perhaps he is the only one openly displaying his absolute hatred (is that a trait of good character, hate?).

          I got your point and it was a good one. I was adding to it in my snarky way – imagine where the R party would be today had they chosen to get behind the president rather than continue to cater to the communist party.

        Ragspierre in reply to Barry. | April 20, 2018 at 10:30 pm

        Hate is certainly a badge of character, as is truth-telling. WHAT you hate and who are things anyone with principles should be very candid about.

        I hate Hellary, and most here do, too. I make no bones about it, and I can state all the reasons for it objectively. Just as for my hate of Duh Donald.

It is called fundraising and the Democrats cannot fund raise in plces like Texas rom suckers in California unless they can sell that it is close.

Pollsters and the Democrats have teamed up to exchange money to pollsters to help fundraising.

Beta has a real shot because Texas is turning purple. Just ask our Governor, Abortion Barbie.

POLLS are like toilet paper AND you know what that’s for? SHOULD be used for such also