Latest Tennessee Poll Shows Blackburn Down Three Points to Democrat Bredesen
Polls have shown Bredesen with more cross-party appeal than Blackburn.
A lot of eyes are focused on Missouri, West Virginia, etc, but it looks like Tennessee deserves a lot more attention this midterm because it could easily flip to the Democrats. Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) chose not to seek re-election after serving two terms.
The latest Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy poll shows Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) down by three points to former Governor Phil Bredesen, her Democrat opponent.
46% of those who responded favor Bredesen and 43% favor Blackburn. 11% of the respondents remain undecided.
Bredesen’s lead falls within the 4-point margin of error.
Both candidates reside in Middle Tennessee, which has Bredesen at 49% and Blackburn at 42%. Bredesen received 51% of the respondents in West Tennessee while Blackburn only had 38%.
The fight is not over, though, because people in East Tennessee chose Blackburn. 48% of those who responded support her and Bredesen only had 39%. However, that is not too much of a surprise as RealClearPolitics pointed out that part of Tennessee has “been a been a bastion of strong Republican support since the Civil War.”
At the beginning of the race, articles came out that Bredesen had more name recognition than Blackburn. This latest poll from Mason-Dixon shows that name recognition is now equal between the two, “but Bredesen’s favorable/unfavorable ration (43/18) is better than Blackburn’s (35/26).”
The Mason-Dixon poll has Bredesen with a slim lead, but a Middle Tennessee State University (MTSU) poll from April 5 gave him a 10 point lead:
In the race for U.S. Senate, 45 percent of Tennessee registered voters said they would choose Bredesen if the election were held tomorrow, while 35 percent said they would select Blackburn. Another 17 percent said they weren’t sure, and the rest declined to answer.“Bredesen is off to a good start, and Blackburn has some ground to make up,” said Dr. Ken Blake, director of the poll at Middle Tennessee State University. “But neither candidate has a majority, and with 17 percent undecided, four months to go until the primary and another three after that until the general, this is still either candidate’s race to win – or lose.”
The key point in both polls falls on attracting voters from other parties. In the MTSU poll, 45% of the independents who responded chose Bredesen and 33% chose Blackburn. 20% of Republicans said they’d cast a vote for Bredesen, but only 5% of Democrats would vote for Blackburn.
Dr. Jason Reineke, the associate director of the poll, explained that when Bredesen served as governor, the school’s polling “showed him consistently attracting appreciable support among Republicans and independents as well as among his fellow Democrats” and it looks like that work “may be paying dividends for him now.”
The Mason-Dixon poll found that 12% of Republicans would vote for Bredesen and 4% of Democrats would vote for Blackburn.
Blackburn received endorsements from President Donald Trump, Vice President Mike Pence, and Corker. The latter has decided not to campaign for her since he is friends with Bredesen.
The Democrats wanted Bredesen to win the primary, but he “is now 75 years old, and the state has moved away from the Democrats in the past decade. RealClearPolitics believes “it seems like a stretch to believe that” the Democrats can win this seat “in today’s Tennessee, although the national environment will probably keep him in the game.”
RealClearPolitics and The Cook Political Report have this race as a tossup. CNN reported on April 11 that the race leans Republicans.
All three have decided this even though polls have shown Bredesen leading Blackburn.
DONATE
Donations tax deductible
to the full extent allowed by law.
Comments
I still think Blackburn will pull it out, but the ‘pubs there better wake up!
If they get woke, Blackburn is a goner.
Where was Trump in April of 2016. How many election do you have to see before you understand the early polls on top of being biased in favor of Democrats reflect there are more comitted Democrats than comitted Republian votes. People just aren’t as likely to say they will vote Republican in April.
I would add if Corker, who was despised before this, can win that seat with Republicans holding their nose to vote for him a charamstic woman like Blackburn will easily bring them home in Novemeber. Corker is sitting this out because he would have been torched by Blackburn to begin with.
“In the race for U.S. Senate, 45 percent of Tennessee registered voters said they would choose Bredesen if the election were held tomorrow, while 35 percent said they would select Blackburn.”
Let me add that a poll that can only find 35% support for a Republican in TN is bulls***!
I wonder if party affiliation was included in the polling questions, and being a former Governor, there is name recognition that will play a factor. Age could become a factor as the two are compared with each other, as well as their stances on issues. I doubt a lot of commercials have played yet, and polls are so unreliable especially this far out.
“…RealClearPolitics pointed out that part of Tennessee has “been a been a bastion of strong Republican support since the Civil War.”
That reminded me about the Battle of Athens (Tenn.).
The democrat politicos (including sheriff) of that town were so corrupt, oppressive, and lawless, the vets returning home after WWII decided to take matters in their own hands, and put their military training to work. They raided the national guard armory, overthrew the democrat machine at gunpoint, placed them under citizens arrest, and turned ’em over to the highway patrol.
We the people. Good times, my friends. Good times.
Marsh Blackburn is a solid conservative and about as attractive as a woman can be at 60.
Will there be a debate? It will be interesting to see if that influences name recognition. It may also show how far away Bredesen’s positions will need to be from the national platform. That could set up some interesting ads by Blackburn.
Basically it’s going to come down to how good a campaigner Blackburn is. It’s her race to win, a good campaign could do it.
Corker would be down over 10 points.. why no mention..
Bredeson is a known corrupt politician and generally TN voters dislike him and his performance. If you believe the polls Hillary Clinton would have won.
Marsha will club Bredesen like a baby seal come November.
This is the same Cook Report which declared the Presidential race to be over around mid-October, 2016, calling it for Hillary.
I give no credence to pollsters who completely missed the pulse of the voters in 2016.