2018: Democrat Big Blue Wave or Big Blue Bust?
“Some of the most damaging blows to Democratic hopes this year are friendly fire”
If you listen to the liberal media, a “Blue Wave” is coming in the 2018 midterms. Progressives across the country are just waiting to turn out by the millions and help the Democrats retake control of the House and Senate.
But what if that’s just a narrative? What if the media just keeps saying this as a form of wish casting? No one seems to believe the Democrats could screw this up. Well, almost no one.
Roger Kimball writes at Spectator USA:
Why the Democrats won’t win big in November
Is a big blue Democratic wave poised to sweep the Republicans out of Congress in the 2018 mid-term election?
To listen to much of the media, you might think so. A couple of weeks ago, the Washington Post quoted Nate Silver, the Yoda of Dem pollsters, who suggested that the “Democratic wave in 2018 may be swelled substantially by the enthusiasm gap into a tsunami.” Last month, when the conservative Democrat Conor Lamb eked out a narrow victory over Rick Saccone in a special Congressional election in Pennsylvania, CNN gleefully reported that “Lamb’s performance is ominous for Republicans as the November midterm elections approach.”…
Let me introduce a dollop or two of doubt into this orgy of excited anticipation.
In the first place, Conor Lamb’s victory, far from limning the future, suggests why the Democratic Party as currently configured is likely to continue to lose seats. Forget that Lamb squeaked to victory by a margin of 755 votes. More important is his ideological profile. An ex-Marine, he is a patriotic pro-Second Amendment social conservative, i.e., an extreme outlier in a party whose right wing is tacked down by the socialist Bernie Sanders and whose left-wing is represented by the faux Injun Elizabeth Warren and whatever species of incontinent glossolalia Maxine Waters and Nancy Pelosi represent. If the Democratic Party had more Lamb Chops, they might look forward to more victories, but then the Democratic Party would not be the modern Democratic Party, whose cynosure is class-warfare fired by identity politics and various forms of exotic sex panic…
No, I do not think there will be a blue wave come November. Mid-terms are traditionally tough on the incumbent party. But the Senatorial map favors Republicans and many observers expect the GOP to pick up a few seats.
Kimball makes an excellent point about Lamb. Not only was his victory won by a tiny margin, he ran as a Republican, not a progressive.
Another problem for Democrats in 2018, is that they have chosen their battles poorly.
Jeff Greenfield writes at Politico:
The Left’s Year of Magical Thinking
It’s Wednesday, November 7, 2018, and the Democrats have awakened to the taste of ashes in their mouths. Despite the poll numbers and the pattern of history, Republicans have somehow managed to keep their losses small enough to retain control of the House. They’ve even picked up a seat or two in the Senate.
How could this have happened? Was it the gerrymandered House districts, the flood of dark money from the Mercers and the Kochs, the suppression of voters in key states?
Maybe. But should that Democratic disaster come to pass, a good deal of the explanation would lie in an aphorism often misattributed to Voltaire: “I can take care of my enemies, but Lord protect me from my friends.” Some of the most damaging blows to Democratic hopes this year are friendly fire.
Greenfield points out that recent calls to repeal the Second Amendment have served to energize Republican voters, and he’s absolutely right. This, however, is the most powerful passage in his column:
Finally, I’d add to this list what I call “magical cable news thinking.” My anecdotal sense is that countless liberals are drawn to the never-ending, numbing procession of TV panel after TV panel, all focused on the Mueller investigations and what they might yield. (Stormy Daniels has now become the second obsessive subject.) Whenever I click on CNN during prime time, it feels like Groundhog Day. Each hour seems to promise that any minute now, federal marshals will parade down Pennsylvania Avenue with warrants and cuffs. And for many Democrats, the promise of a House takeover in 2019 is that impeachment hearings will begin roughly 30 minutes after Paul Ryan hands the gavel over to Nancy Pelosi (or her successor).
The fight could ultimately come down to money, and as Peter Hasson notes at the Daily Caller, Democrats don’t have that either:
DNC Quietly Adds Another 160K In Debt, Bringing Total Debt To $6.3 Million
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) reported more than $162,000 in additional debt in an amended FEC report filed this week.
The DNC originally reported $6.1 million in debt in its March 2018 FEC report filed on March 20 but amended that report on Monday to include an additional $162,368.64 in debt, bringing the DNC’s total debt to just under $6.3 million.
The Republican National Committee (RNC) has zero debt, according to the committee’s most recent FEC filings.
DNC chair Tom Perez has struggled to keep up with his Republican counterpart, RNC chair Ronna McDaniel. The RNC doubled the DNC’s fundraising in 2017 and has continued running well ahead of the DNC in 2018.
Can Republicans still screw this up somehow? Absolutely. Nothing can be taken for granted. But don’t become demoralized or give up. As much as the media wants the contest to be settled business, nothing is over yet.
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Hillary won’t shut up or go away. Mueller keeps showing his true colors and the deep state cabal is being exposed at every turn. Voter rolls are getting looked at while democrats are caught cheating at everything from their IT guy’s clearance to their campaign finance.
Don’t count your chickens before they hatch.
You mean like in 2016 how the MSM and their paid “Polls” were predicting Hillary Klingon had a 100-Percent certainty of winning that election.
RE: “If you listen to the liberal media, a “Blue Wave” is coming in the 2018 midterms. Progressives across the country are just waiting…. ….that’s just a narrative…..
…..the media just keeps saying this as a form of wish casting….
Lots more good reading in that Kimball article Mike quoted and linked.
“Just between us, the Republican Party is nothing to write home about, either. It is nearly as corrupt as the Democratic Party, just as instinct with crony-capitalists, just as inured to deep-state unaccountability. But the Republicans have one huge, if intolerable, advantage: Donald Trump. It’s a bitter pill, to be sure, but Trump’s dogged policies have palpably reversed decades of American decline and the psychological lassitude that typically accompanies such national angst. The economy looks like my backyard garden: green shoots and new blossoms everywhere. Unemployment is down to historic levels, business confidence (despite Trump’s audacious tariff talk) is burgeoning.
“Trump’s success is reflected in his increasingly robust approval ratings. The latest Rasmussen poll has Trump on 54 per cent, a tad higher than Barack Obama….”
Unfortunately, the Republicans have talked the talk, and governed like Bernie lite repeatedly.
This doesn’t inspire masses to turn up at the polls
Hopefully the McConnell and Eddie Muensters of the party will suppress their liberal deep-state urges or at least disguise them between now and November
I think that it is entirely possible for the Republicans to screw this up. I also think there are more “Ellen” and Late-Night comedy voters than we realize. I was with a woman who informed me that Oprah would win. When I expressed ever so polite, slight skepticism, she gave me the, “apparently you are not well informed” vibe. The whole idea of mobilizing high schools after the shooting was to get the young and stupid to vote on their side.
All that said, I do think that the Democrats desperation to keep the illegal immigrants on the rolls – they really do need them to win – is going to be the backfire that burns them down.
“Today’s Democrat Party! Stealing Presidential Elections since 1948!”
So far the Democrats’ message for the midterms has been they’re going to raise our taxes, take away our guns, and open up our borders. If Republicans stay home, they deserve what they get. Unfortunately, the rest of us get to suffer, too.
I think the IG’s report coming out will be a game changer for this election. Trump’s polls staying above 50% will help immensely in red areas which will be a boost to protecting the house and picking up a couple of Senate seats as well.
Republican voters need to wake up, though. Low turnout on our side will kill our chances. Thankfully the left seems determined to double-down on killing the second amendment, killing the tax cut and fighting for sanctuary cities — all things that will get our side out to vote.
Finally, with primaries to select candidates, few, if any Conor Lambs will get through to the general
We keep hearing about the IG report like it is the fairy godmother’s magic wand. The IG is still part of the DOJ and cannot be trusted. What comes out may well be arranged to make the Deep State more powerful. I do not trust Sessions, and Trump should not either. The FBI still works for the DNC, and most Federal LEA’s and Intel agencies do too. Most judges are DNC Apparatchnik and/or compromised by extortion.
There is no easy way out of this where the legal system magically suddenly starts working over the opposition of tyrants.
I think it is correct to be skeptical, but the McCabe treatment recently gives me hope, as does the apparent turning of evidence by a raft of at least some of the conspirators recently (Page, Baker, etc.)
I have to have some hope because if actions like that can be tolerated, there aren’t many chances left that don’t lead to a legitimate war
I think you forget something in the analysis. Court ordered redistricting. Without it I think the Democrats would eikther lose a few seats or gain a few seats.
I think that Democrats, when they care, are very good at mobilizing for single elections ( Mary Landrieu in 1994 ), but not so good when it comes to nationwide elections. They just don’t have the army to cheat everywhere at once. Plus certain races, where a seat exists for a few months, which are meaningless in the grand scheme, but are useful for “sending a message”, I think Democrats are more motivated in those elections. As a result I think general the blue wave has been overstated.
Because of the court ordered redistricting going on I think the Democrats might have a slight chance, but only slight, of winning back the House. I think the Republicans will have medium to large size gains in the Senate. I would especially like large gains, since larger majorities mean it’s harder for “moderates” to force deals.
I think Nancy Pelosi will be quietly shuffled off after the election, possibly by just outright retiring. This will be absolutely true if Dems do not win back the house, but she will be gone even if they do.
“…whatever species of incontinent glossolalia Maxine Waters and Nancy Pelosi represent.”
That is a keeper. Nothing better than insulting liberals and they have no idea what you are saying.
Considering that Democrats have been turning out in mass for special, primary, and regularly scheduled general elections, thus demonstrating a proven capability to get out the votes, organize, and even fund directly, prognostications that November is gonna be spiffy because somehow that election will be magically different is, to put it bluntly, delusional at best.
Hit the panic button.
The people with their eyes open already have.
What exactly is suppose to happen when you t the panc button? I am tired of having my panic buttoned pushed since 2010. Explain what the sould be done that isn’t ordi narilay done between elections. Please don’t tell me win every special election or you are doomed in the general election because I don’t buy it.
The media has set the table. Outrage to 11. The DNC platform, to turn out the enraged is:
1. Open borders!
2. Repeal the 2nd Amdt!
3. Raise taxes !
4. Punish big coal and big oil!
5. Reenter Paris Climate Accord and NAFTA and roll back any changes
6. Moar wind and solar subsidies
7. Illegals should get to vote
8. Endeavor to impeach the President and/or completely kneecap him for his last two years.
I’m thinking, the Dems/media are driving so hard to enrage to drive turnout, they will … but the turnout will be everyone who might have stayed home, but wants NOTHING of the above…
Backfire to burn the Democrat-Nazi Party!
Besides Leftists can’t focus on more than one or two crazy Leftist Agenda Items at once………..
The thought of Pelosi’s Big Blue Bust nauseates me.
It’s not wish casting if it’s intended to frighten the GOP Congress into timid moderates.
Monday: we can’t drain the swamp without a majority in the House.
Tuesday: okay, but we still can’t drain the swamp until we have a majority in the Senate.
Wednesday: Now we just need a Republican in the White House and we’ll begin swamp draining
Thursday: Are you nuts? Don’t make waves or we’ll lose our majorities. Blue wave! Blue wave! Congress adjourned to go home for fundraisers!
Cue the Blue Dogs.
Remember how Nancy Pelosi got elected Speaker of the House? The Democrats got lots of people in conservative areas to run to the right of the Republican candidates, and it worked. And then, when the Blue Dogs got to Congress, she told them to STFU, and they did.
Candidates. We need candidates for House, Senate, and school board!
Seriously? Once all the pro life Democrats realize they’re no longer even in the Democrat party. They’re finished. No different then the Communists like Bernie, or the Green Party; 2% at best. The Clinton’s ran it into the ground and no one is more delighted the Hillary. You people fell for her and now you’re looking at the death penalty? Sucks to BE YOU!