CBS Poll: Clinton, Trump Too Close for Comfort in Florida and Texas
Three points separate the two in each state.
There is a possibility that Texas, a state typically owned by Republicans, could turn blue next month since Donald Trump only leads Hillary Clinton by three points. However, Clinton only leads Trump by three points in Florida. From CBS News:
The poll numbers show voters’ frustration about the dialogue in the race – and what may amount to a wasted opportunity for both. Sixty-nine percent feel Donald Trump is talking about things that he, himself cares about, while fewer, 46 percent say he’s talking about issues they care about. Clinton has much the same gap.
Both states showed the majority of voters plan on voting in November:
Voter enthusiasm is high in both states — in Florida, 73 percent of respondents said they planned to head to the polls on Election Day, with another 25 percent saying they have already voted. In Texas, 89 percent of respondents said they are planning to vote, with 4 percent saying they have already voted.
CBS found that Republicans in both states have questions “about the validity of the election.” However, the feeling is stronger in Florida with 72% of Republicans in the state “believe Trump would win in November were it not for fraud.”
Trump said he would honor the election results if he wins, citing the possibility of voter fraud as a possible reason why Hillary would win. While 60% of all voters said the candidates should honor the results, only 42% of the Florida Republicans and 31% of Trump supporters take that sentiment:
Seventy-two percent of Trump voters and 60 percent of Republicans say Trump is “acting within his rights as a candidate” by calling the election into question, while 39 percent of voters overall feel Trump is “undermining a U.S. tradition” by doing so.
The left can cry all they want about no voter fraud, but there are reports out there that back Trump’s claims. Indiana is currently embroiled in a voter fraud battle, the home state of Trump’s running mate Mike Pence.
The poll found that fewer than half of the respondents believe Hillary can actually fix the economy and understands regular Americans. Hillary can brush aside her email scandal as much as she wants, but the voters polled in Florida want more since only 37% said “she has explained the contents of her emails. 49% think she can “act with integrity” as the president.
In Texas, Romney won by double digits in 2012. But Trump has three points on Clinton due more to him “underperforming” more than Hillary “overperforming.” CBS News reported:
Clinton is doing about as well with key groups as President Obama did in 2008, but Trump is under-performing the Republican benchmarks by roughly ten points among white men, white women, and college whites in particular. Many of those not with Trump are unsure or voting third-party rather than Clinton.
In 2008 then-candidate Obama lost white men in Texas by more than fifty points and Clinton is down 35 points today. That’s still a big gap but the sheer number of voters that represents is part of the reason for the difference in the race. Meanwhile, Hispanics in Texas, who are supporting Clinton, say they feel very motivated to vote this year.
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The poll numbers show…. blah blah blah.. We see the end result of these polls, never the actual numbers behind them. This is true for red and blue polls. I wish there was more transparency…
There you go…
Thanks you for the link. I read it and found it to be rather sparse on demographic information. Now where does it breakdown the respondents by party affiliation, age, gender, race or any other pertinent factor. It is based solely upon an opt=in internet survey, in which the demographics of the respondents are not addressed. It is essentially worthless for any statistical purpose.
Now, as we have seen the way media and other polls have been skewing the polls ni favor of Clinton, what is there about THIS poll that would lead us to believe that it is an accurate picture of the current electorate?
My advise is to simply ignore it, as you should any other poll this year.
Unless millions of illegals are able to vote, there is no way in hell that Hillary can win Texas. These polls are ridiculously slanted to favor Granny Cackles.
Uhhm. Did you catch some of the more recent WikiLeaks which talk about discouraging voters by bringing out polls and showing the election is over?
So we are to believe that Trump is losing because Hillary is polling better then Obama, even though she is drawing much smaller crowds then Obama and she received less primary votes then in 2008?
I stopped reading there.
Yeah. I am throwing the Bullshit flag.
Fifteen yards for altering poll numbers to the point no one believes them.
Some in the T-rumpian bubble aren’t reading, because the facts…they BURN…!!!
“Clinton is doing about as well with key groups as President Obama did in 2008, but Trump is under-performing the Republican benchmarks by roughly ten points among white men, white women, and college whites in particular. Many of those not with Trump are unsure or voting third-party rather than Clinton.
In 2008 then-candidate Obama lost white men in Texas by more than fifty points and Clinton is down 35 points today. That’s still a big gap but the sheer number of voters that represents is part of the reason for the difference in the race. Meanwhile, Hispanics in Texas, who are supporting Clinton, say they feel very motivated to vote this year.”
Texas can be very ambiguous about Der Donald and NOT be turning blue.
I’m not familiar with all races in this huge state, but I don’t know of any conservatives who are in trouble.
Look in the upper right-hand corner of the Texas poll numbers and see my comment below.
One check on the validity of the polls [and the state of GOP] are the downballot races. Downballot candidates generally outperform the Donald.
Here’s what I don’t get and I am not a Trump “fan”. Sec. Clinton has been shown to have lied to the American people several times about her email set-up. We know that five people connected to her were granted immunity during the investigation. We know that her home brew server contained not less than 100 classified emails. We know that very real questions exist regarding pay for play between the Sec. of State Office and the Clinton Global Initiative. We know that Sec. Clinton has called a good portion of American’s “deplorable” and that they’re “irredeemable”. We know that while her campaign emails and those of the DNC and DCC were “stolen” the contents of those emails isn’t in dispute and that DNC staff joked about gays (“love you bro, not in a homo way), made fun of a black woman because of her “ethnic name” and sought to use Sen. Sanders Jewish faith against him. We know, from the “stolen” emails that the media was not only in the bag for Sec. Clinton but that a member of the media and DNC (Ms. Brazil) provided, verbatim, a town hall question to Sec. Clinton. We know that Sec. Clinton’s own people questioned her health and ability and so much more. Yet . . . . . . here we are, weeks from the election and serious people are talking about Trump saying mean things about women! Look, I am not giving Trump a pass – he’s an oaf, a jagg-off and boorish – fine. But man . . Sec. Clinton skirted the law on so many occasions and her campaign has openly castigated the American public more often than not. I wish neither were a candidate but I cannot possibly fathom how serious people are considering voting for Sec. Clinton given not “allegations” of her saying mean things but confirmed sources that say she acted “recklessly”. I honestly fear for our Democracy should we willingly vote in someone that we know has behaved in such an inappropriate manner. Just what will be the check and balance to keep her administration in-line should she win? Nothing, imo.
and serious people are talking about Trump saying mean things
Not serious people, no.
Some people who take themselves seriously, perhaps.
While it’s true that Hillary is just awful and that Trump doesn’t have the same history of government corruption, looking at Trump’s character, we don’t believe that he represents an alternative to Hillary. He only doesn’t have history of government corruption because he never was an elected official. Otherwise he’s a corrupt crony capitalist with an unbelievable sense of entitlement. He is exactly the type who will leave our men behind.
Most important, Hillary is not destroying conservatism, Trump is. It is very much possible that if Trump is elected, the traditional, 3-legged conservatism will seize to exist as a driving force of American political life.
IMHO Trump has a better chance of winning New Jersey than Hillary has of winning Texas.
The closer the race, the easier it is to steal the election. Just ask Al Franken.
Remember democrat Wendy pink shoes who was running for the Texas legislature. She was forecast by the polls to be a shoein (pardon the pun) and her Republican opponent won in a landslide. Don’t believe the polls. As Podesta said they will use oversampling to skew the polls and depress the Republican turnout.
Perhaps you could link to those polls showing a Wendy “shoe-in”.
I sure don’t recall any.
A Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Indians World Series is now slightly more likely than a Trump presidency.
I’m not sure how many times between now and election day I’m going to have to say this:
A +/-4.4% poll Margin of Error is worthless as a prediction model. PERIOD.
ANY poll with a margin of error over 2.5 is WORSE THAN WORTHLESS, because it’s being manipulated. Either by using too-small a sample size, or by push-polling the questions, or even simply by unintentional bad design.
There is ZERO chance Trump loses Texas. It’s not even going to be close (even WITH an enthusiasm gap due to the Trump-Cruz extended fight, AND the extra enthusiasm of Hispanic voters).
Ancedotally, in El Paso, one of the Bluest of the Blue areas of Texas, the machine here is in full freak-out mode, because so many of the “blue-collar” Democrats are refusing to commit to vote for Sec. Clinton, and many have ALREADY committed to vote for Mr. Trump.
IF Mr. Trump wins, AND this thing has coat-tails, the Democrats are looking at a wipe-out of all contested races between El Paso and Midland all the way down-ballot. It’s not so helpful for El Paso, because so many of the local races are uncontested after the primary (the Republicans don’t even bother to pay the filing fee field a nominal candidate).
even simply by unintentional bad design.
There’s little reason to believe that badly-designed polls full of poorly-crafted questions are that way unintentionally. Designing and conducting bad polls is big business. It’s not cynicism to realize this. The legit market for polls is very small; really, campaigns need some indication of where they need to spend more money. That’s about all. The other uses are either propaganda; mere entertainment; or filler content intended to boost circulation, and therefore ad revenue, for news media.
There’s an interesting phenomenon pointed out to me by an old physician a few years ago. Unlike most commercial operations subject to the laws of supply and demand, the costs of medical care increase as more doctors set up business in an area. While that relationship may not be causal, it’s tempting to think that the fact that Doctor A can refer a patient to Doctor B, who in turn can refer him to Doctor C, etc, etc, generates a potentially endless river of money, even if all the referrals are medically legitimate. I expect a similar dynamic is at work in the poll business. Every published poll generates the need for more of them.
Useless noise. But scientifically designed noise, so I guess it’s supposed to be good.
Shoot, what that airhead Mika thinks about it all is of more consequence than what the polls are saying.
The poll questions are nebulous pap; utterly meaningless. Consider this gem:
only 37% said “she has explained the contents of her emails
What the hell is the answer to the (implied) question here? The true and accurate answer is “yes”; she did explain them. Routine stuff, nothing secret in there (hey, she said so!), and the tens of thousands she deleted were about personal and inconsequential stuff—yoga and prep for Chelsea’s something-or-other, bat mitzvah or whatever. She explained. Of course she lied about it all, but that’s not the poll question. The raw fact that 37% of respondents recognized this tells us nothing at all about the election.
Like the porn star who claims Trump offered her $10000 for sex and she refused.
A woman who will have sex on camera with men like ROn Jeremy for much less.
Sounds like Trump didn’t offer her enough.
Headlines—Trump is a Cheapskate!!!
Activists have learned that slapping on the adjective ‘scientific’ is a cheap and easy way to trick folks into swallowing skewed polls and any of their causes. Think ‘scientific’ environmental studies,’scientific’ AGW nonsense, etc., etc. Most know little of scientific methodology. Many others do, but butcher it to get the ‘correct’ results, as with ‘hockey stick’ Mann on global warming. Just like any product marketing scheme where they label everything ‘natural’ whether it is or not. Along with ‘scientific’ and ‘natural’, the word ‘sustainable’ is being tortured out of any meaning.
The Clinton media senses a Trump win. In order to maintain their credibility (HAH!) they have to now report a close race. The push polling isn’t working.
Aw, naw…!!! She must be reading those rigged polls…!!!
I have no idea what Conway is doing, here. Then, Conway has made statements at other appearances which I find baffling, from both a tactical and strategic perspective.
The campaign has repeatedly attacked the validity of media polls, as well as the bias of media itself. So, her seeming acceptance of the NBC poll and the statement that Trump is behind, especially since other media polls are showing the race to be even, is just one more baffling Kellyanneism.
Yah, Der Donald HATES polling.
Except when he tweets about how well he’s doing in the polls.
Which is often a risible lie.
Not sure what she’s doing either. Donald hires the best people.
I remember Kellyanne hinting that Trump would reverse himself on immigration and globalization. All leading up to a speach where Trump went all in on his previous position.
Hillary will push the world again in a cold war era . A dangerous woman for the US ,a dangerous creature for the world . It is the time to take care about our country now , we have now a chance ,the last chance The main problem is the country future , our future ,our children future and secondly the world future !! We loose our country: the globalization ( a marxist-leninist concept ) , interventions in others states (as Libya ) have destabilized the world ( economic and social ) ,NAFTA , the mexicanization or our country hispanization by illegal immigrations, drug dealers. jobs, porous borders for anybody, unfair trades , colossal deficits ,domestic and foreign terrorism, moral degradation … etc etc .. are not jokes ,they are a real threat for the US existence for the world stability ! Wake up Americans ! Wake up now ! After nov .8 we may lose our country forever !
RCP just moved TX from leans GOP to toss up.
If Clinton takes Texas, I’m holding Rags personally responsible.
Just don’t peanut butter his car! He lives in Houston, he has enough problems.
Actually, no. About 30 miles NW of Houston.
The deer, squirrels and crows would LOVE the peanut butter!
That is SO animalist.
Nope. I voted for Kodos…
OK, completely off topic, but…
this may be the best ad of the cycle (I know nothing about this guy, btw).
I just read somewhere on a blog that Texas has already been declared for Trump based on early voting. We shall see
The problem HRC has is no one is turning up to see her or that other guy she is running with. THIS should be sending alarms to her because it just shows how unenthusiastic people are for her.
People flocked to see Barry O because he WAS POPUAR. No one is flocking to see HRC because she just isn’t that popular.
Yes you can quote poll blah blah blah BUT you cannot deny the reality that no one on the Democrat voting side, apart from the dead and illegals, is all that enthusiastic about HRC.
So perhaps HRC’s tactics have always to be on a parity with Trump because then voter fraud comes in to its own? All those dead will make a difference eh?