The GOP can easily lose their majority in the Senate in November
The rise of Donald Trump has divided the GOP more than ever, leading many to worry if the party could maintain their majority in Congress whether he wins or loses the presidency. The Democrats have noticed and now Politico reports that Hillary Clinton plans to raise $1 billion to defeat the vulnerable GOP members of Congress:
The new concern inside the highest levels of Republican politics is that Hillary Clinton will raise $1 billion for Democrats and the party will train some of their efforts — and that money — on defeating House and Senate Republicans. Party leaders privately concede that the Senate could be lost either way. But senior House Republicans say they’re in good shape across the country, and see no evidence that the control of the chamber is in play.
I blogged on this subject last week. The overall consensus does agree that the GOP will maintain the House, but Democrats could still gain a few seats. But the GOP already barely holds the Senate and could lose their majority with only five seats, but four if Hillary wins:
In two states where Mr. Trump trails badly, recent surveys have shown the incumbents, Patrick J. Toomey of Pennsylvania and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, trailing their Democratic challengers. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll last week, showing Mrs. Clinton ahead by nine percentage points in North Carolina, found Richard M. Burr, who is seeking a third term in the Senate, virtually tied with his Democratic opponent.
Confidence that Republicans can limit House losses to 20 seats or fewer and retain control of that power center rests on Mr. Trump’s position stabilizing. He currently trails by seven percentage points in The New York Times average of national polls.
It doesn’t help that the GOP campaigns in the House have seen a drop “in July donations.” They only raised $4.6 million compared to the the $9.3 million they raised in June. But people have also realized the House majority is safe unlike the Senate so the RNC said they send their money to the Senate candidates:
“With some of the important votes coming in the future, like the Supreme Court nomination, and the sheer quantity of the senators up for re-election,” said Cliff Sobel, a managing director at the investment firm Valor capital and a major Republican donor, “many people are focusing their attention [on the Senate] because that seems like where the need is.”
Billionaire Paul Singer has become one of those people. He generously donated to Mitt Romney in 2012, but said he would not donate to Trump. He decided to concentrate on Congressional races in 2016. He sent $7 million “to nine super PACs backing congressional candidates” through the end of June:
A defense system is up and running in Ohio, where a super PAC supporting Sen. Rob Portman against Democrat Ted Strickland has attracted contributions from a who’s who list of heavyweight contributors. Along with Singer, who gave $750,000, the Fighting for Ohio Fund has been buoyed by six-figure checks from Chicago hedge fund manager Kenneth C. Griffin, Boston investor Seth Klarman and Florida-based home builder Dwight Schar.
However, the Democrats “raised $12 million in July, continuing a historic fundraising streak for a presidential year when Democrats don’t control the House.” That amount puts them at $133 million through July.
The RNC? They have raised only $114.5 million through July.
To make matters worse, Hillary still leads Trump in fundraising as well. Federal Election Commission filings show that Trump raised $35.6 million in July, but Hillary raised $52.6 million.DONATE
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