Electoral success is looking bleak for Republican nominee Donald Trump and his supporters.
Among the conventional poll-reading wisdom is that trends, not individual polls, provide for a more accurate overview.
Despite his headline popularity and ability to pull around 30% in primary elections, Trump has never polled consistently well against Democratic contender Hillary Clinton.
In fact, the only time Trump was able to muster any substantial polling gain against Hillary was following the Republican National Convention, but the post-convention bump was short-lived.
From Real Clear Politics:
August has been a rough polling month for The Donald. Not once has a national poll shown him with a lead over Hillary.
Earlier this month, a Fox News poll showed Hillary up by ten points and Reuters poll had her up by eight. As I blogged then, “this is the problem with having a campaign predicated on the fact that you’re leading in all the polls — when polling data turns unfavorable, your alleged mandate dissipates.”
Today, a new batch of polls showed the same downward trend for Trump.
- NBC News poll has Hillary up by 9
- In the deep red Lone Star State, Trump is only up by…6? SIX?!
- Hillary is also up 9 in the no longer swinging state of Florida
- Making it no surprise that Trump is down by, wait for it…9 in Virginia too.
“But the polls are rigged!!!” Yeah, yeah. In the 2012 election they were “rigged” in favor of Romney, only for election day to prove otherwise.
Trump’s hope lies in the Brexit mystery — where polling respondents were unwilling to vocalize support of the referendum prior to election day. Even then he’d have to overcome a 28% unfavorability deficit.
As I’ve blogged before:
You can blame voters for not supporting a candidate all you like, but as I’ve said many times — no one is ever entitled to any other’s vote; votes must be earned. The failure to garner voter support is not the fault of the electorate; it’s the fault of the candidate and their campaign to find a message that resonates with voters, grow support, and ensure that support translates into votes at the ballot box.
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