RNC getting ready for a contested convention
Get ready to rumble, or riot.
Of course, it’s mathematically possible that Donald Trump will obtain a majority of delegates through the primary and caucus process, in which case all the talk about an open or contested convention is moot.
But the math is at least as likely to have Trump fall short, with only a plurality. And a plurality doesn’t entitle Trump to anything other than a floor fight — or cutting a deal with someone who has enough delegates to put him over the top.
The RNC appears to be getting ready for an open convention (what I call a contested convention). Reince Preibus dispelled the notion that there would be something improper with new rules being adopted:
There is always risks to every decision that you make. But there will always be a perception problem if people continue to miss — to not explain the process properly. So, the 2012 rules committee writes the rules for the 2012 convention. The 2016 rules committee writes the rules for the 2016 convention. Are you trying to say that the rules committee that was made up of Romney delegates should write — should enforce the rules for the 26 convention which will largely be made up of trump/cruz delegates? I mean, that wouldn’t make any sense, would it? I mean, that’s what I don’t understand. This is very simple. The delegates get elected. The delegates fill the slots on these different committees, and there’s many committees – there’s platform rules, credentials. Those delegates make the decisions on the governance of the convention that they’re a part of. That’s really simple to me.
(video and transcript via Hot Air)
Perhaps more important, the RNC agrees that the math is the math, and a plurality is not a majority:
The Republican National Committee chairman wouldn’t back Donald Trump’s argument that the candidates with the most delegates headed into the party’s convention in Cleveland should automatically win the nomination.
Reince Priebus told CNN’s Dana Bash on “State of the Union” Sunday that if no candidate wins the 1,237 delegates necessary to clinch the nomination before the convention, it’s up to GOP delegates to decide how to go forward.
“This is a delegate-driven process. This is the first time in a long time people actually cared about delegate count, but delegates matter,” Priebus said. “The minority of delegates doesn’t rule for the majority.”
He pointed out that he was named Republican chairman on the seventh ballot — and though he led the entire race, “no one gave it to me on the second or third ballot. In fact, I had to fight and fight and fight, and eventually I got the majority. That’s how it works.”
“No one’s disenfranchised. In fact, they’re empowered by the delegates they receive,” he said.
He made a similar point on ABC News:
Uh — uh probably not still the case, no. I think it’s possible. We’re preparing for the possibility. I think it’s my job is to be as open and transparent as I possibly can be. Why I’m trying to get out there on the convention a lot, out in the media. Talk about the rules. What they are, what they’re not. Take the mystery away from what an open convention looks like. It’s simple stuff. [Transcript via Weekly Standard.]
So, get ready to rumble, or as The Donald says, riots.
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Depending on how Arizona and/or Utah vote on Tuesday, Ted Cruz could be mathematically eliminated from winning a delegate majority as soon as Tuesday.
It’s beyond obvious that Republican Party hacks will not allow Cruz to win, just as they will not allow Trump to win.
So, hopefully Ted Cruz will do the right thing for his career and the party and make the telephone call when it’s his time to do so.
Because the party will suffer a down the ballot blowout if the party screws over 80% of its delegates.
Hell, all the polls show a down the ballet blowout if Trump is the nominee as well. Oh, and if one candidate has 80% of the delegates, he’s won the nomination.
The presidential campaign hasn’t even started yet, and you’re already picking out the dress you’ll wear to the funeral.
At this point, no poll about the election is anything more than a waste of bandwidth.
Someone please explain to me how Trump getting the nomination “affects the down ballot”.
The “foot soldiers” in the Cruz and Trump campaigns may upend the GOPe brokered convention plans. Both campaigns are in rebellion, after all. Both campaigns consider themselves in the GOPe cross hairs.
“We’re going to keep fighting for Cruz. They’re going to keep fighting for Trump. But at the end of the day, it’s going to be one of these two folks who actually get to the convention with the most, if not the right, number of delegates, and then, we’re not going to let somebody who’s sat on the sidelines come in and circumvent the process,”
That obviously would work — and it was working real well in the beginning of the campaign, and was fine with Trump — but the last couple of months Cruz appears to be selling out on behalf of his overweening ambition to the GOPe and eight SuperPACs currently courting him, to whom he now is beholden. So it will depend on Cruz doing the right thing, and the smart thing. Because if Cruz thinks he’s going to help steal the nomination from Trump in order to glom it for himself with fewer votes, he’s making a huge mistake.
Sorry, URL is https://sunlightfoundation.com/blog/2015/12/11/there-are-now-8-super-pacs-supporting-ted-cruzs-2016-run/
At least some of the Cruz delegates, and some of the Trump delegates as well, are pledging to abandon their candidate in order to deny the nom to a GOPe supported 3rd candidate.
It may not matter, for example, whether Ted “does the right thing” or not. His citizen activisrs may decide on their own.
1) Look at Curly Haugland and Bill Kristol when they talk about a brokered convention.
2) Look at how the delegates are selected in my post below. No doubt there will be a lot of delegates loyal to Trump and Cruz. There will be more that are not.
Cruz did not contest Missouri. He either knows he cannot win except in a brokered convention or he’s signaling he’s a reasonable person and willing to deal. My guess is he’s willing to deal.
Now he has Neil Bush and Bushes finance team behind him so it could mean that he’s willing to deal with the donor class or it could mean he’s willing to deal with the front runner. Nothing else makes sense.
Brokered is the word that our author keeps struggling to find. When you go to a ‘contested’ election it inevitably becomes brokered. Horse deals will be made, people will be pimping out their influence and the donor class GOPe with the backing of their dem allies will be making Mephistopheles like offers.
Rubio took one almost immediately in his career guaranteed he’ll go wherever the greatest good for Marco is, not America. Kasich wants immediate Amnesty now. He’s already forgotten what the preamble to the Constitution means and puts illegal invaders over his citizens. He’ll deal like any dirty mercenary.
Brokered is what it will be unless Cruz throws his support behind Trump. Individual delegates will have their ego stroked, promises will be made, and it will be full of smoke even if no cigarettes are allowed.
The delegates are the party, so by definition the party can’t “screws over 80% of its delegates”. The delegates are the ones who make the rules, so if 80% (or even 51%) of the delegates want something it will happen. And that means if 51% of the delegates don’t want Trump, he won’t be nominated.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has zoomed to a commanding lead in Utah’s GOP caucuses, according to a new poll released Saturday. It also gave a glimpse into how frustrated the state’s Republicans are with Donald Trump’s candidacy.
The Y2 Analytics survey shows Cruz with 53 percent support among likely Republican caucus-goes and if that matches Tuesday’s caucus vote, he’d win all of the state’s 40 GOP delegates.
Coming in second is Ohio Gov. John Kasich with 29 percent, while Trump, the national front-runner, was a distant third at 11 percent.
—Salt Lake City Tribune
The “very likely” caucus-voters were even MORE pro-Cruz at 57%.
HEH…!!! That would mean Cruz takes all 40 delegates.
IF the polls are accurate.
I am hoping that the Rubio voters jump to Cruz and that the remaining voters realize Kasich is done and don’t waste a ballot on him. I know it is a long shot but I believe way more Republicans will support Cruz. The wild card is independents and Democrats that vote in open primaries.
Trump poll numbers went up post-Rubio.
The last name I heard floated for a convention nomination was Rick Perry.
Can you imagine how the Trump and Cruz supporters will react if after all this they get stuck with Rick Perry?
There will not be a party anymore.
You can’t tell 80% of your base to screw off and still win.
Watch Rich Lowry on the same slow as that clip, He doesn’t want Cruz either! The party doesn’t want Cruz!
Last name I heard floated was Ryan. Anointed successor to Boehner. Pair of cucks the both of them.
Using the non-word “cuck” as a pejorative is a dispositive sign that the user is a disgusting scumbag who should not be allowed into civilized discussion. Every decent person should now know to ignore anything “forksdad” writes.
Using the non-word “cuck” as a pejorative is a dispositive sign that the user is a disgusting scumbag who should not be allowed into civilized discussion,
You mean like Ragspierre?
Clown. You provide more entertainment than any other commenter here. Reliably wrong, incoherently angry, perpetual scold. You missed your calling as a prohibitionist and suffragette. But don’t worry you are making up for it now.
Keep jangling those little bells for us Jester while you stomp around in your Carrie Nation dress.
Rags’ Newest & Bestest Establishment Buddy Mitt Romney Records Robocalls For Ted Cruz [AUDIO]
“The only path that remains to nominate a Republican rather than Mr. Trump is to have an open convention,” Romney wrote in a Facebook post. “At this stage, the only way we can reach an open convention is for Senator Cruz to be successful in as many of the remaining nominating elections as possible.”
It’s so sweet when ‘conservatives’ join with the Establishment to elect Hillary.
As I hear it, The establishment will try their best to create a brokered convention and dump Cruz & Trump at the earliest possible minute.
That, of course will give Hillary a smooth landing at the White House.
Well we found out something. Reince Petotie or whatever is name ios must be a really loathsome person to actually take seven ballots to win.
…Because it could not possibly be that he had several good and able competitors.
Can we also dispel the ridiculous notion that 100% of Trump primary voters will sit home on election day if he is not the nominee? From what I have seen, 65% of primary voters do not support Trump. That means if Cruz can convert 50% of the 35%, he and the rest of the republican party will be in great shape for the 2016 general.
(Waiting now for Gary and the other Trumpbots to tell me how they all will stay home, I’m wrong, an idiot, etc. etc.)
From what I have seen, 65% of primary voters do not support Trump.
You could conclude something like this if there had been only two candidates. But of course that wasn’t the case.
All we know from the voting so far is that far more voters preferred Trump than any other single candidate.
What is more if 20% of Trump voters don’t vote and 35% is the number of Trump voters, that is 7%. That would be the difference in a win by a landslide and a loss by landslide.
What is more in close election that is the difference between winning losing a Congressional seat. Can you say President Hillary with a Democratic Congress and Senate?
“If,” Sparta to Philip of Macedon. That’s the short answer.
Longer answer is ‘if’ 20% of Trump voters stay home and ‘if’ they are 35% of the electorate. You don’t know either answer so your conclusion is ridiculous.
Further plenty of elections have come down to far fewer than 7% ‘if’ you assume that’s even accurate. So going by every recent election 7% loss guarantees a democrat victory. You should hope none of your ‘ifs’ come true.
Sorry my answer was for quicksilver. Not enough caffeine.
You had me confused for a while. 🙂
Using your logic 75% of primary voters do not support Cruz.
Both Trump and Kasich are behaving like delusional aging divas. And while John Kasich wallows in irrational self deception and denial, Donald Trump , especially, is not aging gracefully. This septuagenarian apparently lacks the self awareness to realize he is no longer a dashing and domineering young 40-something dynamo. Outside of his seemingly lucid commentaries about trade, there is evidence of a paucity of knowledge in the areas of Constitutional government and most disturbing, an apparent lack of intellectual curiosity regarding same. And for all of us who clamor for an end to the irrational and irresponsible dereliction in enforcing immigration law, including that requiring deportation, Donald Trump’s double speak, his support of DACA, his support of DREAMERs in NY in 2013 and his touch back amnesty plan has produced an acute awareness that there is a duplicitous streak in this man not to be ignored.
How much of this man’s slow and shallow mentation, his bombastic self aggrandizement , his casual lies, vacillations and self contradictions are all part of his pre-existing constellation of character and personality traits, is really moot at this point. With his progressive coarsening of speech at public events and verbal intemperance on national display, I submit that the strain of the campaign is hastening a pre-senile dementia in Donald Trump.
This man is decomposing before our eyes, for all who are willing to see. To the nationalists who cherish our sovereign identity as well as the constitutionalists who are ardently fighting to save our uniquely exceptional country, I am issuing a dire warning. Donald Trump, for all his sound and fury, will not bring successful or even competent leadership to the position of POTUS. The time has come to reject the despotism which surely follows anarchy; anarchy that is being fueled by emotional discontent. This is not a reality show. This is for real.
People must coalesce around Ted Cruz, push him over the top in the remaining primaries and if necessary, in a contested convention.
No doubt Cruz is great. But your invective aimed at Trump should be aimed at the rats of the GOPe.
What did Trump do to you, besides free you from the tyranny of political correctness and the destruction of the separation of powers by the Boehner Party?
Because coalescing around a younger dominionist who beleves he is the fulfillment of the mormon white horse prophesy is such a better choice.
I know some actual dominionists. Cruz isn’t one. And I rather doubt he believes Mormon prophecy, either, not being one.
Cruz may not believe Mormon Prophecy, but Glenn Beck does. During their appearances together he doesn’t use the words “White Horse” but he strongly strongly hints at it. Cruz does not gainsay it.
Suddenly, the Trumpkins realized their months of insulting every other candidate’s supporters may not have been so very smart, nor were Trump’s own insults to the field.
If people like Britt leave the Party over it, so much the better. The Trumpkins are giving us their stench.
Considering how much slimming the anti-Trump folks have done, I think you might have postpone your victory dance as regards the Republican Party.
I’m active in my local Virginia district, and the Cruz and Trump delegates get along fine, not only that, they’re fighting the GOP-E here in Virginia who are trying to make sure that “other” than a Cruz or Trump supporter actually goes to the National Convention as delegates. So if there is a second ballot, they can ignore both C & T.
BTW, I’m a Cruz supporter – but a Trump defender. Furthermore, from ground levelhere, Trump is gaining a lot more defenders even if he wasn’t their guy – because of the antics of the GOP-E.
Be careful of just how many of these folks you want to say good riddance to…
I have an idea. Let MLB and the NFL play out their games this season without knowing what it takes to make the playoffs, Then at the end of the year the rules committee gets together and decides who makes the playoffs and what seeds they are.
The Rules Committee meets and finalizes the rules for the National Convention before the start of every convention and those are the rules for that nominating convention. There is nothing more or less underhanded about this than in the past or even into the future. The presumptive nominees have a great deal of input into this process and for those with a conveniently short memory this pre-convention massaging of the rules is what nocked Ron Paul out of the mix last time.
Just in case you haven’t seen it yet
Here’s the hilarious Hillary Barks Advert
So the Black Knights of Ted Cruz are still refusing to admit his death.
It’s over. Soon 1237 will be out of reach., and there is no way he can win a brokered convention, the GOPe will not let him.
Who do you think the delegates are? In twenty years, I have received a letter each election begging me to be a Republican election judge. I have never been asked to be a delegate.
They are the precinct captains and ward committeemen. They are the interns and paid staffers who work in the republican offices. IOW, they are party hacks, They like being party hacks. In many cases their future is tied to the republican party. You can bet when their GOPe boss comes along and says “vote for Paul Ryan”, they will vote for Paul Ryan.
Fully 73 percent of delegates are selected without direct input from the presidential contenders, by state party executive committees or at state and local conventions,
Don’t forget too before rule changes get approved by delegates, they go through the RNC Rules Committee containing people like Curly Haugland. You know, the guy who says primaries are a waste of time.
I’m getting tired of all this brokered convention plotting. So I tell you what.
Let Trump leave so far ahead and join the reform party. . Take all those on the blacklist with him. I’m sure that they will be overjoyed at the thought of a few siotting politicians joining their ranks.
Then we can see a Hillary-Trump-Paul Ryan race. If it gets thrown into the House, we can see Lindsey Graham argue how Congressmen should vote for Paul Ryan despite his coming in third in their district.
Trump should not go third party unless and until the GOPe steal nomination from him.
Unfortunately the Uniparty has rigged things so a third party run is almost impossible after the conventions. So Trump has ho that way while he can. Wait too long and he won’t get on some ballots.
So what you are saying is that Trump can’t win the nomination so he should jump now to insure Hillary wins the presidency? I knew Gary was a leftist hoping for a Hillary win, I didn’t realize you were also RodFC.
No. I am saying that Trump should get out now, before the GOPe hacks like WJ steal the nomination from him, clothing their theft in all sorts of rationalizations. Go while he can still run third party. Better Trump as a third party candidate then Hillary or some GOPe shill.
I’m sure the reform party will be glad to have Trump, his voters, and the representatives on that blacklist. It would be just the boost that they need to overtake the GOP in popularity.
What’s the matter? You GOPe are always telling us to leave. Now that I suggest we do exactly that you freak? I thought you didn’t need us.
Anyway, gone are the days where we hold our noses when we vote. Voting should be a time of pride not loathing.
Correction, you GOPe are always telling us if we don’t like it we should leave.
You missed the point. If Trump runs third party, Hillary wins period. I am not GOPe so all of your answer means nothing to me. I was just telling you the consequences of that action.
No you don’t get it. Hillary or a GOPe shill– not much difference. Trump at least stands a better chance then in a rigged convention.
And yeah you are GOPe.
If the GOPe throws the election to the cucks, rinos, or dems they deserve to go the way of the Whigs. The donor class will always be with us. The important thing is to marginalize them by cutting their money supply from the feds. The vampires are only following the blood trail our government leaves as it spends its way into insolvency and the donor class just want to latch on like leaches.
People have to understand that this was the desired outcome all along. The GOP fielded 12 primary candidates, of which 8 received delegates. The rules granting proportional delegate awards were designed to make it impossible for any single candidate to achieve a majority of the candidates before the election. Then the RNC rules were further designed to require that a candidate receive a majority of delegates in at least 8 states to qualify for the nomination. With a field that large this would make it extremely difficult for any one candidate to automatically qualify for the nomination. This would allow the RNC to determine who was named nominee, at the convention, by allowing an “open” convention.
This is very “parliamentary”. However, the US does not have a parliamentary form of government. In popular votes, especially for President, a plurality is all that is necessary to win the office. Even in those contests which require a majority popular vote for election, we hold a run-off election between the top two candidates which is decided by the people. So, while the “rules” put in place by the RNC as legitimate, the populous will view them as a means to disenfranchise their voting members. If Trump ends up any where near 50% of the delegate count, and it appears that he will, those that voted for him are going to view nominating anyone else, as the RNC “stealing” the nomination from Trump. The Trump voters are largely supporting an anti-establishment candidate. This means that they do not trust the “establishment” and that includes the RNC. So, if Trump is not nominated, these voters will fee betrayed, rightly; and simply not bother to vote. This has happened to the GOP in the last 6 Presidential elections. GW Bush, a moderate GOP candidate, barely beat two left wing loons and lost the popular vote in one of those contests. Both McCain and Romney got creamed. If Trump is not nominated, the same thing will happen. Clinton will be the 58th President of the USA.
To pick a nit.
It’s not parliamentarian. In a parliamentary system the parliamentarians are answerable to their constituents. You don’t make the right choice you get voted out.
US delegates are one shot and thus not answerable.
Lindsay Graham — that icon of conservatism — is backing Cruz because “better to lose the election to Hillary Clinton than to lose the trough at which we feed.”
Graham: Better for GOP to lose election than ‘heart and soul’ with Trump.
Looks like the GOP Establishment is proving why there is a revolt against the GOP Establishment.
Cruz is the ‘Stop Trump’ Trojan Horse to be burned on the brokered convention floor while tied to a stake next to Trump.
If Hillery is taken down by FBI Director Comey (a Republican) not much is in the way of stopping Bernie and his friends.
If that happens… get out your Hammer & Sickle lapel pins and start learning Chinese, Spanish, Russian, & Arabic.
You’ve really lost your poor old mind.
Bless your heart.
Foist- 1. to pass off as genuine, valuable, or wworthy. 2. To impose upon another by coercion or trickery. It could not be more obvious that our democracy is a sham, a facade, a fraud, and a shame.
No one can spell this sleazeball Rebus’ name, so let’s just call him what he is: Greasy Rebus.