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Obamacare enrollments fall far short of CBO projections

Obamacare enrollments fall far short of CBO projections

What else possibly could go wrong?

Obamacare continues to surprise and excite.

The surprise is that it’s not as “affordable” as promised, and which excites such panic that people just don’t bother to sign up in the numbers predicted.

The L.A. Times reports:

Reflecting slower than anticipated enrollment growth in health insurance purchased through the Affordable Care Act, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has lowered its estimate of how many people will get coverage through the law in 2016.

In any given month this year, about 13 million people on average are now expected to be enrolled in a health plan purchased on a marketplace created by the law, often called Obamacare.

That is down from 21 million people previously estimated by the budget office, whose projections about the impact of legislation are closely watched by both parties in Washington.

The lower enrollment number brings the budget office closer in line with the Obama administration, which scaled back its own enrollment targets for 2016, citing the difficulty of reaching new consumers who have not so far taken advantage of the marketplaces.

The NY Times adds some more context:

When the Affordable Care Act was drafted, the Congressional Budget Office expected people to sign up quickly for new health insurance.

Now, two years into the law, it’s clear that progress is going to be slower. The Obama administration acknowledged as much in late 2014, and again in October, when it presented its own modest predictions. Monday, the budget office also agreed, slashing its 2016 estimate by close to 40 percent….

The new budget and economic outlook now predicts that about 13 million people will get their health insurance through the Obamacare marketplaces this year, down from an earlier estimate of 21 million. The budget office’s estimates for future years won’t be released until March, but it seems reasonable to assume they will also come down. Currently, the 2017 estimate is 24 million.

The numbers are buried on page 69 of a lengthy CBO budget report. One thing to note is that almost all people signing up receive subsidies:

CBO Budget Projections 2016

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Comments

Perhaps the Dr. can help me: I am unemployed and ineligible for Unemployment. I cannot afford health insurance, even under Obamacare (My wife is collecting SSN and a pension which is @ $500 over the limit.) We have a mortgage and ridiculous taxes (NJ). I am not signing up as a result. Is there a way I can get incarcerated for not having insurance as opposed to paying a fine? Not sure how I can pay a fine since I don’t have any money and would rather face incarceration than pay.

Can you enlighten me to how I can achieve this?

    buckeyeminuteman in reply to Mark. | January 26, 2016 at 12:55 pm

    3 hots and a cot does have a certain appeal when you are faced with being required to spend over $1,000 per month on something you don’t want, don’t need and is only there just-in-case.

    Henry Hawkins in reply to Mark. | January 26, 2016 at 2:42 pm

    “Is there a way I can get incarcerated for not having insurance as opposed to paying a fine?”

    You can’t and won’t be incarcerated for failing to secure approved health insurance.

    “Not sure how I can pay a fine since I don’t have any money and would rather face incarceration than pay.”

    The fine is taken from your next tax return, if any. If you don’t have enough tax return to cover the fine, pretty much nothing happens.

    Re: Unemployment, not sure about NJ, but in some states you may become eligible for unemployment after a specific waiting period, usually depending on why you aren’t eligible in the first place.

No problem. Emperor Trump has suggested that the government could pay for everything.

    rabidfox in reply to Radegunda. | January 26, 2016 at 5:42 pm

    No, that was Sanders.

      Radegunda in reply to rabidfox. | January 26, 2016 at 9:09 pm

      Trump has, in fact, spoken in terms that sound like the government paying to cover everyone. Of course he was vague about it (as he is on many things), but he said it would be “great.”

      He has, also, explicitly praised socialized medical systems in other countries, saying that they work well.

When will we see a LI review of the Planned Parenthood indictment?

I’m not trusting anything on that topic that is not from this site.

    quiksilverz24 in reply to Andy. | January 26, 2016 at 1:09 pm

    Down voting only because I prefer to stay on topic with each post. If this is something you are looking for, you can always contact the authors directly via twitter or email the good professor with a request. Also, you can do your own research to look at both sides and submit your work to the good professor, who I am sure would post your submission. Only bad thing is he might expect you to start contributing on a semi-regular basis.

      I send a fat envelope Tony Soprano style whenever the hat gets passed. I therefore feel a little bit entitled to make a listener request now and then, especially when the story merits it.

      Also I do my best to not empower Twitter, Facebook, Amazon or other companies with control over my speech and beliefs; a lesson we should all learn, which is why the fat envelopes go here when the hat is passed.

      JimMtnViewCaUSA in reply to quiksilverz24. | January 26, 2016 at 3:28 pm

      There’s also a “tip line” in the upper right. It can be used to suggest stories. Plus, almost all the “cool kids” hang out there….

      You said that like down votes are a bad thing. Best not to speculate.

The ACA was designed by those who had no clue what the public wanted or how the market would work. Those supporting gov insurance only knew what they thought it was going to be and not what it turned out to be. Reading any portion of the bill would have exposed how poorly thought out it was. Anything good would not have needed to be mandatory. So when the healthy thumbed their noses at signing up in spite of the penalties, it wasn’t going to be long before things started collapsing.

    JackRussellTerrierist in reply to showtime8. | January 26, 2016 at 1:24 pm

    The ACA was designed by those who had no care what the public wanted. Of course they knew how the market would work. Why do you think they exempted themselves before the ink was dry?

JackRussellTerrierist | January 26, 2016 at 1:20 pm

The left will never learn that there is no such thing as a free lunch.

subsidies = payola in Chicago

The ACA as advertised was designed to fail. Thus, it is successful as intended(Remember that jerk economist who proudly designed this POS?). Single payer/socialized medical care anyone? The solution will be on the way courtesy of the Dems and the GOPe.

I use the term “medical care” loosely, of course.

I think that the health of that girl in the pic above will soon be phased out. She must have gotten a notice letter from her ex-provider and a look at the cost of Obama’s ’eminent domain’ health care.

15% of the people in the USA don’t have health insurance.

1/3rd are rich and have the money but don’t want to spend it. Probably between jobs.

1/3rd are poor and can probably qualify for medicaid.

1/3rd are working poor. They are the ones who cannot get free healthcare and cannot afford to pay for it. Congrats. Obama screwed you people.

Also – 15% of the drivers in this country have not automobile insurance. See a pattern there?

IIRC, United Healthcare was going to lose a billion dollars total for the last two years. One of their complaints was that people did an “emergency” sign up when ill, then dropped coverage when well again.

    rabidfox in reply to 4fun. | January 26, 2016 at 5:46 pm

    That was going to be a given once they made insurers insure those with preexisting health issues.

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