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Trump and Cruz are Definitely Breaking Up

Trump and Cruz are Definitely Breaking Up

Admit it…you saw this coming

Way back in September, when we were still young and naive in our belief that conservatives would overcome the odds and rally around The One sooner rather than later, I attended an anti-Iran nuclear deal rally on Capitol Hill. The event was headlined by Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, and featured the kind of anti-establishment, anti-Obama, anti-ridiculously stupid foreign policy speeches that have bolstered the more non-traditional candidates on the current Republican slate.

Walking around, I was amazed at how many people displayed swag from multiple campaigns—weren’t we in the middle of a hotly-contested nomination cycle? Still, rally attendees seemed less worried about who was taking a stand than they were about the possibility that nobody would take a stand at all. Trump and Cruz worked well together in this regard; they connected with the crowd and produced a cohesive message that resonated both on the Hill, and outside Washington.

Looks like the honeymoon is over, though. It was nice while it lasted, but let’s face it—we all saw this one coming.

Since the beginning of this death march toward 2016, Trump and Cruz have been competing for (among other things) the support of the fiercely passionate conservative base. Trump’s standout performance in the early polls prompted an uneasy alliance between the two campaigns—one that Trump was comfortable with, seeing as how he was leading the entire field by approximately five million percentage points. Recently, however, Cruz has managed to punch up into the double digits; the RCP average has him at a comfortable 10.7%, just 13 points shy of Trump’s still-commanding lead.

Yesterday, Trump appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box and hinted at a plan to cut Cruz down to size should he gain any more ground.

From The Hill:

“If he catches on, I guess we’ll have to go to war,” he told host Joe Kernen on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

“We’ll see what happens but so far we haven’t,” Trump continued. “He’s been very supportive [and] we have a lot of the same ideas.

“Well, he’s been very nice and supportive of everything I’ve said, more than anybody else.”

Cruz and Trump have typically enjoyed a warm relationship since launching their respective Oval Office bids earlier this year. The pair has expressed mutual admiration over their similar policies on border security and illegal immigration.

“I salute Donald Trump for focusing on the need to address illegal immigration,” Cruz said on July 5.

“I like Donald Trump,” he said. “He is bold, he is brash. He has a colorful way of speaking, and it’s not my way of speaking, but I salute him.”

Both men have also found common ground opposing President Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran. The two teamed up for a rally criticizing implementation of the controversial pact last September.

As Emily Zanotti points out, we’re heading into the November-to-Super Tuesday “slog,” which means that less people will be paying attention to the still-bloated field of candidates. I’m interested to see how these two men will distinguish themselves in terms of policy. Conservatives at this point need to focus on substance over rhetoric; and though both Trump and Cruz excel at spinning a yarn, it will likely be the true Man with the Plan who takes the day—and the votes—from the other.

If you’ve been paying attention at all this cycle, you know that this is going to be really, really, really fun to watch.

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Comments

Trump is no conservative.

    Trump is not a pure conservative. Good thing no matter how much Amy and a few others want it to come down to that it doesn’t matter.

    What matters is Trump’s policies and leadership on immigration, jobs, economy, trade, and the WALL.

      “What matters is Trump’s policies and leadership on immigration, jobs, economy, trade, and the WALL.”

      Yes, and he’s pretty terrible on just about all of these issues.

      Look, if I wanted to vote for a Democrat, I’d vote for a Democrat, not a Democrat pretending to be a Republican.

        The majority of the republican primary voters say Trump is right and you are wrong. He has huge support on immigration, trade, jobs, and the economy. Even much stronger than his overall poll numbers.

          The word you’re looking for is “plurality”

          Trump has not garnered a “majority” in any poll to date.

          Any time a poll asks respondents to identify which candidate is best on economy, jobs, immigration Trump scores anywhere from 40% to 70%. So yes in some he’s under 50% but their are plenty of others, especially state by state polls where he is 60% and 70% on these issues compared to other GOP candidates.

          Gremlin1974 in reply to Gary Britt. | November 17, 2015 at 7:35 pm

          Also, since we haven’t even seen the first primary yet, I don’t think you can make a claim on what most “primary” voters think. Things could change drastically after the holidays.

        Fiftycaltx in reply to Paul Zummo. | November 18, 2015 at 7:54 am

        “Look, if I wanted to vote for a Democrat, I’d vote for a Democrat, not a Democrat pretending to be a Republican.”

        Oh, you mean like Jeb! or Gramnesty?

      damocles in reply to Gary Britt. | November 20, 2015 at 11:57 pm

      Trump is a populist,he is at best a moderate Republican. Trump believes in eminent domain and supported the TARP bailout for Wall Street. Trump has zero national security expertise or foreign policy experience. Cruz has the necessary foreign policy ability and experience needed in this dangerous time.

    Eliot Ness in reply to Same Same. | November 17, 2015 at 2:33 pm

    In re: “Trump is no conservative.” Yet nevertheless, there is every reason to believe that he would sign bills presented by Congressional Republicans, dealing with our two major issues — budgets and borders.

      NC Mountain Girl in reply to Eliot Ness. | November 18, 2015 at 2:23 am

      Show me the evidence that Trump had any intenton to do what he is saying he will do as opposed to whay he had said in the past. That’s right. All there is the blind faith of followers who are long on anger anf short on due diligence.

      I do due diligence and have comcluded past o his past political actions that the only thing Trump isn’t being cynical about is the conflation in his own mind of American exceptionalism with his mostly self proclaimed awesomeness.

        You have the questioning and conclusions backwards.

        1. There is already many actual d3monstrations that the GOPe never does what it tells conservatives it will do if only conservatives vote for them. So show me the proof they really really really mean it this time.

        2. Unlike the gop Trump has no record of promising one thing and doing another.

        3. Since all the GOPe candidates promise to do the opposite of what Trump promises to do show me the proof they won’t really do all the terrible things they say they will do.

          damocles in reply to Gary Britt. | November 20, 2015 at 11:59 pm

          Cruz has done exactly what he promised on the campaign trail. He has stood up to the establishment Republicans and fought for his constituents and all Americans.

    Olinser in reply to Same Same. | November 17, 2015 at 2:55 pm

    News flash – NOBODY CARES.

    They care about exactly one thing – illegal immigration.

    Trump seems to be the only one with the balls to make it his foremost issue.

    Cruz kind of does but he’s not nearly as forceful about it.

    At this point the race is between Trump and Cruz, and the winner is not going to be decided by some vague definition of ‘conservative’.

    Has Trump ever identified himself as a conservative?

Amy, your posts continue to be mere projections of what you want to happen and not reflections of a reality based understanding of what IS happening.

Trump is winning. His lead is growing. Paris will have him close to 40% support in another week. He’s already there in some polls. A Trump/Cruz ticket is looking more likely. Far more likely than a Trump/Cruz war. Cruz is smart enough to know he can’t win a fight with Trump. Plus what is he going to say since he has been copying Trump on immigration, etc.

In re: “Trump is no conservative.” Yet nevertheless, there is every reason to believe that he would sign bills presented by Congressional Republicans, dealing with our two major issues — budgets and borders.

cantor4massat4 | November 17, 2015 at 3:08 pm

“Conservatives at this point need to focus on substance over rhetoric; and though both Trump and Cruz excel at spinning a yarn”

Where is this woman living? Under a rock in the desert, perhaps. Cruz has done nothing but focus on substance with the issues that are of paramount importance in this election. She has to be referring to the Democrats.

Sammy Finkelman | November 17, 2015 at 3:13 pm

Trump is winning. His lead is growing. Paris will have him close to 40% support in another week.

Where do you see his lead growing? He’s stuck at around 24% to 30% maximum. That’s why he talks about a “war” wih Cruz, should Cruz rise in the polls. He would go to “war” with him like he did with Carson.

The only way he can be in the “lead” is if nobody else approaches 25% – and better for him is if nobody gets near 15%.

And about ISIS, he wants to do even less than Barack Obama.

His position is the ultimate in containment.

    Sammy my friend, you need to get back in the news cycle. Trump has been at 37% for at least two days and just within the last 24 hours a poll shows him at 40%.

    Trump is pulling away, mainly because of his brief comments about how the outcome would have been different if some of the Paris victims had been armed. That just made the 2A people swoon. They won’t forget.

      Trump is pulling away, mainly because of his brief comments about how the outcome would have been different if some of the Paris victims had been armed. That just made the 2A people swoon. They won’t forget.

      I’m a “2A people” who won’t forget that until fairly recently, Trump was in line with the anti-gunners wanting to ban so-called “assault rifles.”

      I’m glad that he’s had a change of heart on gun control matters, but he’s had “changes of heart” on so many important issues that I can only hope that he’s genuine in his beliefs this time.

    Trump was at 42% in the Reuters rolling 5 day average poll BEFORE Paris. UMass poll out today Trump 31% Carson 22%. Morning Consult Poll out today Trump 38% Carson 19%.

    On ISIS, the day BEFORE Paris Trump said in major speech he would bomb the shit out of ISIS, take their oil money away from them, take them out in Iraq and happy to let Putin take them out in Syria.

    Since Paris we see politicians jumping on positions that Trump has advocated for months. 1. No Syrian refugees. 2. Bomb ISIS oil fields. 3. When elected he will send all the Syrians let in by Obama back, if necessary to safe zones created in Syria or elsewhere.

    Finally, Cruz has said recently he will build a wall. Amazing how all the other candidates (except Cruz) haven’t figured out just how powerful and popular with GOP are Trump’s substantive ideas.

    Drudge:
    REUTERS 5-DAY ROLLING POLL: TRUMP 35.8%, CARSON 14.6%, RUBIO 11.5%, CRUZ 7.8%… MORE

      Trump is on 24.3%. That’s actually down quite a ways from his September peak of 30.5%. Numbers & graph here.

      In any case, it’s still early days. The primary polling is interesting to watch, in a spectator sport kind of way, but there’s a good chance that the landscape will look very different come March.

        You are quoting the RCP polling average. 1. They don’t include all the polls in their average. 2. I can’t figure out how they choose what polls are in the average. Sometimes it is just 3 polls. Sometimes, its 4, 5 or 6 polls. As an average it will always be a lagging indicator. Given how the “traditional” polls have been wildly inaccurate in recent elections, it is no surprise that an average of a subset of these “traditional” polls is off by a wide margin from other polls.

        The crowd sizes at the Trump appearances clearly show which of the polls are the most accurate, and it ain’t the RCP average.

In the end, there can be only one.

Of course it was coming. Trump has no principles, he is simply a bully and will attack anyone whom he sees as a danger. He doesn’t care about right or wrong; he doesn’t even recognize the concepts. He does whatever he finds at that moment to be in his interest, and neither truth nor justice matter at all.

I really wish Trump would go away. Just drop out and endorse Cruz, so we can fast forward to the Cruz vs Rubio phase.

Just face it. Trump isn’t smart enough.

    platypus in reply to cepenta. | November 17, 2015 at 4:18 pm

    And you can make it a plural marriage with those other two Trump-bashers.

    Sanddog in reply to cepenta. | November 17, 2015 at 4:19 pm

    Trump is no idiot and it’s a mistake to believe that.

      cepenta in reply to Sanddog. | November 17, 2015 at 5:12 pm

      Trump is a buffoon that speaks on issues at a 4th grade level so his supporters can understand what he’s getting at.

        Milwaukee in reply to cepenta. | November 17, 2015 at 6:20 pm

        “Trump is a buffoon that speaks on issues at a 4th grade level so his supporters can understand what he’s getting at.”

        That’s very Trumpesque of you. Not an admirer, are you?

        Insulting the candidate won’t add to the debate. Even if Trump got a million dollar grubstake from his daddy, he has done well. While he has failed more than once, he has found a way to re-enter the fray. I agree he tends to be bombastic and caustic with his withering scorn. However, he is a serious force to be dealt with seriously. Name calling won’t do the job.

        I sincerely that a single Trump supporter will be swayed by others calling him names. Bring up his support of Democrats because that helps him make money. That he would use the reigns of government for his personal enrichment should be highlighted. He has struck some nerves which has resulted in doing well in the polls.

        Sanddog in reply to cepenta. | November 17, 2015 at 9:05 pm

        News flash, cupcake: Trump supporter are not stupid. They’ve actually been paying attention and they’re tired of the condescension the GOP has been dishing out to their supporters for years.

          Estragon in reply to Sanddog. | November 17, 2015 at 11:51 pm

          So believing we will condemn over 1200 miles of mostly private ranch land on the Rio Grande, permanently cutting off historic river/water access, build an impregnable wall, AND make Mexico pay the trillions of $$ it will cost is NOT stupid?

          We must define the word differently.

          Milhouse in reply to Sanddog. | November 18, 2015 at 3:07 am

          Yes, Trump supporters are stupid, and he is unfit to be president, no matter whom the Democrats put up. There is no room in the Republican party for him or his supporters. The GOP may be a big tent, but it’s not big enough for protectionists. Go back to the Democrats where you belong; you are not welcome here. Shoo.

          There are many ways to make Mexico pay for the wall when they enjoy 50 billion yearly trade surplus with usa and have billions more cash sent to mexico each year by illegals. Just because YOU erogon can’t conceive of how to do it doesn’t make it stupid. Also won’t cist trillions. And the ranchers who live in fear every night as illegals roam o ast their homes will love to have the wall. Worries about water access are just more red herrings and the thoughts of tge less capable.

          As for trade policies lets not try something different because of how well the last 35 years of trade polic I es have worked so well for our jobs and industries. Maybe it is you millhouse that needs to just go away from the new Trumped gop.

          Barry in reply to Sanddog. | November 20, 2015 at 11:44 pm

          “Yes, Trump supporters are stupid”

          Says a complete dumbass. Then makes up shit about protectionism.

          You are just a liar. Insisting “free trade” should be fair for the USA is not the same as protectionism.

      NC Mountain Girl in reply to Sanddog. | November 18, 2015 at 2:28 am

      Most con men and mountebanks are quite smart. It’s their marks who are prone to magical thinking.

    Juba Doobai! in reply to cepenta. | November 17, 2015 at 8:27 pm

    What Cruz-Rubio phase? There’s another one coming? Didn’t you know that Cruz met Rubio on the battlefield and outflanked him and destroyed him? Check out last weekend’s Breitbart. Cruz did some long range planning on Rubio, who fell into the trap, then was out of position when Cruz slammed down the trap door. Rubio lost big time!

Trump’s “job” is to narrow the field. Once we’re dealing with just a few candidates, the real differences will become apparent. I for one, would love to see a serious debate with Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Carson. Let the voters see who actually has a real grasp on the issues.

    Substance? Sad that so many people confuse memorizing statistics and broad brush tactics for actual substance. Trump is a big picture strategy CEO. The smarts to intuitively understand that you want to fight ISIS without sending in massive troops. Take their money away from them by bombing and then taking over the oil fields. That is HUGELY SUBSTANTIVE. And Trump has been saying it since JUNE OR JULY. Then Trump will turn to the generals and have them draw up TACTICAL plans to accomplish his substantive strategic direction.

    You want SUBSTANCE? Substance is having the brains and the balls to say “WE NEED TO BUILD A WALL AND ENFORCE OUR LAWS”. That is more substance than every other GOPe candidate added together plus throw in McCain and Romney to boot.

    Trump has mega substance, but some people aren’t sophisticated and nuanced enough to recognize it because they think substance is defined by bean counter lists.

      Sanddog in reply to Gary Britt. | November 17, 2015 at 7:05 pm

      Jesus… calm down before you stroke out.

      Forgive me for not believing Trump is the second coming.

        Lee Jan in reply to Sanddog. | November 17, 2015 at 8:13 pm

        Trump is all about name recognition. He is an ignorant lout standing in the public square bloviating on a particular top that energizes the public.
        He is an embarrassment, IMHO.

          Sanddog in reply to Lee Jan. | November 17, 2015 at 8:46 pm

          An embarrassment? Having lived through Carter, Clinton and now Obama, believe me there’s nothing Trump could do or say that would embarrass me.

But Cruz is not a natural-born citizen. Trump is.

The one they have to watch out for is Marco Rubio.

Only in the Tiger Beat Edition of LI do we find shock, awe, and near mystical fascination that two candidates in a race for a single office would end up attacking each other.

NC Mountain Girl | November 18, 2015 at 2:36 am

Who better to run against Hillary than an old, angry, rich white man with a past full of statements that are 180 degrees from what he is saying today plus a raft of shady business deals?

    That is the kind of critucsm dem I crats will bring. Suorised to see a so called republican bringing it. Their are no shady deals. All of Trumps deals are out in open unlike the Clinton protection rackets. Their is nothing more youthful and envigorating than success and a fortune built on same. Only demicrats think success in business must be shady. Maybe Mountain Girl is a plant.

Trump is on 24.3%. That’s actually down quite a ways from his September peak of 30.5%. Numbers & graph here.

In any case, it’s still early days. The primary polling is interesting to watch, in a spectator sport kind of way, but there’s a good chance that the landscape will look very different come March. In the 2012 election cycle, Gingrich pulled out in front in late November and spent all of December in the lead, peaking at 35%. And…

    Giggles, you are quoting the RCP polling average. 1. They don’t include all the polls in their average. 2. I can’t figure out how they choose what polls are in the average. Sometimes it is just 3 polls. Sometimes, its 4, 5 or 6 polls. As an average it will always be a lagging indicator. Given how the “traditional” polls have been wildly inaccurate in recent elections, it is no surprise that an average of a subset of these “traditional” polls is off by a wide margin from other polls.

    The crowd sizes at the Trump appearances clearly show which of the polls are the most accurate, and it ain’t the RCP average.

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