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New Poll: Republican voters bailing on Jeb in Florida, moving to Marco

New Poll: Republican voters bailing on Jeb in Florida, moving to Marco

Will donors bail on Jeb?

There are two big stories in a Florida Atlantic University poll of Republican voters to be released tomorrow.

The Orlando Sun-Sentinel reports, Poll: Marco Rubio pulls ahead of Jeb Bush in Florida; Hillary Clinton in trouble:

Marco Rubio has overtaken Jeb Bush among Florida Republicans, as he benefits from positive reviews of his performance in the most recent presidential debate.

A Florida Atlantic University poll to be released Wednesday shows Rubio, the state’s junior senator, is in second place in the Republican primary field in Florida. His political mentor, former Gov. Jeb Bush, is in third place.

Donald Trump, the real estate investor, former reality TV show host and part-time Palm Beach resident, is in first place among Florida Republicans, as he is nationally….

On the Republican side, Trump had 31.5 percent of the Republican primary vote. Rubio was second with 19.2 percent and Bush was third with 11.3 percent.

Ben Carson came in at 10.3% and Carly Fiorina at 8.3%

There’s some bad news for Democrats in the poll also. Hillary loses in Florida to Marco, Jeb and Carson, and is only tied with Trump.

Hillary Clinton, the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination, is far ahead of Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. But the survey shows she’d lose to Rubio, Bush and Ben Carson and tie with Trump in hypothetical 2016 general election matchups.

But the big news is that Marco has surged ahead of his in-state competitor, and is positioning himself in Florida as the Trump alternative. Since Florida is winner take all, there is a strong incentive for the non-Trump vote to unify behind one person, and that one person is looking like Marco.

Jeb is in trouble.

As the Republican donor class seeks someone to counter Trump, choices are going to have to be made. At some point things tip from Jeb to Marco.

And when donors bail on Jeb, it’s over.

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Comments

“Jeb is in trouble.”

Well, if by “trouble” you mean a nice, crispy, slightly burnt toasty done-ness, then yeah!

He’s ready for the marmalade…!!!

    No, it’s really no trouble that the voters are leaving Jeb. It’s an act of love, love for their country.

      natdj in reply to Paul. | September 22, 2015 at 8:18 pm

      Too funny!

      You are better than Cool Whip. That was delicious.

      DaMav in reply to Paul. | September 22, 2015 at 11:01 pm

      Well done!

      Olinser in reply to Paul. | September 23, 2015 at 2:40 am

      No. ‘Leaving’ would imply that he ever had them to begin with.

      He had mediocre poll numbers only because of name recognition.

      Once people actually got to know the other candidates he was always going to be toast.

      He’s a RINO in the purest form. Jeb Bush is quite literally the only person in the GOP field that Clinton would actually beat in the general election.

      Enough with the establishment candidates that mouth platitudes then act like Democrats.

        JackRussellTerrierist in reply to Olinser. | September 23, 2015 at 4:00 am

        It’s hard to say at this point whether it would be Bush or Trump who would get the worst of Hillary, but she would beat either of them like a rented mule. Bush will be resilient in FL because he wasn’t a bad governor. Go Marco!

        I have never voted for a ‘rat for any office ever in my entire life. Not once. If Trump gets the nomination, I will vote ‘rat. Every conservative I know feels the same way. If Bush got the nomination, it would be a travesty, but not enough to send us to the dark side.

          Bush will be resilient in FL because he wasn’t a bad governor.

          I don’t know. Even the people I know who really supported him as Governor, and who were initially excited about the idea of a Presidential run, seem to be cooling on him. If he loses the core “Doctors’ Wives” constituency to Rubio, he’s toast.

          That’s interesting because pretty much the conservatives I know here in Florida will vote for Trump. And, if they don’t, they won’t be voting for a ‘rat. That is silly. That is like a child who can’t get their way so they go home and whine and complain and mutter that they won’t play anymore with their friends. Look at what we get because of that thinking.

          As for JEB! being a good governor here, yeah. He is tied too much to the center and is viewed with suspicion now.

          JEB! is not the type of guy who comes across as someone who really wants this. He comes across as someone who feels he needs to run.

          pretty much the conservatives I know here in Florida will vote for Trump

          The people I know who formerly leaned towards Jeb! are probably the last people in the world who’d vote for Trump (or Cruz, for that matter). Where I do find Trump supporters is in younger acquaintances of mine who I know have tended to vote Democrat in our local & state elections. They’re incredibly enthusiastic about him. The traditional GOP “doctors’ wives” set, notsomuch. I think they’re more likely to lean Carly or perhaps Carson or someone they see as more “refined” — someone not so vulgar and brash.

          Then again, Florida is a huge (yuuuuge!) state, so who knows? That’s what makes politics such a fun spectator sport 🙂

          JackRussellTerrierist in reply to JackRussellTerrierist. | September 24, 2015 at 1:00 am

          Natdj, under most circumstances I would agree with you. But Trump is well beyond “normal circumstances.” He is, to me, one of the most repulsive people I’ve ever encountered. I see no difference between Trump and obastard. Ina race between obastard and anybody else, I would vote for anybody else.

          In the case of this election, Trump should be running against Hillary, by rights. But he chose to come shi+ all over us instead. He probably didn’t want to offend his old friends, the Clintons, by challenging them in the primary. There’s no guarantee he doesn’t have a plan to throw the race to her anyway if he got the nomination. THAT is why I would vote ‘rat before I’d vote for him. If Trump got the nomination, it would simply be a question of which ‘rat is more repulsive: Hillary or Donald? For me, it’s Donald, hands down, and that is saying one hell of a lot. I would have never thought it possible for anybody more disgusting than Hillary to surface as a candidate, but it’s happened.

It’s long been held that the loser between Bush and Rubio in Florida’s primary would effectively be out of the race having lost his own home state. Cruz winning the instate donor battle essentially put Perry out.

    Perry just couldn’t recover from his drug-addled debate performance from 2012. Getting on that stage in an impaired state was a huge mistake.

      Paul in reply to Paul. | September 22, 2015 at 8:46 pm

      Hey! I support Rick Perry. He was my Governor for a long time and I like the man and the job he did. But there is no denying he was drug addled during that debate debacle and that it was a huge mistake. He has even said so himself (in so many words).

      We all make mistakes, unfortunately the media will hang one around a conservative’s neck and never let them recover.

      Don’t down ding Paul for that, it’s true, Perry admitted he was on pain killers and it messed him up for the debate.

        Paul in reply to EBL. | September 22, 2015 at 9:39 pm

        Exactly, and I wish somebody on his staff would have had the cajones to make him stay off the stage that night. I don’t think he would have won in 2012 or this year, but he could have brought a lot more positives to the debate that he was able to after the hit he took from that incident.

          Paul in reply to Paul. | September 22, 2015 at 9:47 pm

          … I mean DANG that question was a major softball tee-up for a strong conservative message about actually CUTTING the size of the federal government and he could have really spiked the ball by talking about the Texas Sunset Commission and all the wasteful spending and government meddling it has eliminated over the years.

          Ahhhh, but alas it was not to be.

The only people supporting Jeb! are Bush hangers-on like Dana Perino who want to get back in government. Jeb! is pretty much a one-issue candidate and he’s on the opposite side of that issue from most US citizens.

    Jeb! is a weak candidate. If you want to see someone who will make Mitt Romney’s campaign skills look like Bill Clinton’s in comparison, Jeb! is your guy.

Jeb “Make America Mexico Again” Bush is losing to Marco “Americuba” Rubio? And yet both are behind Trump, which is the real story. How could both Florida “native son” politicians do so poorly in their own state against an outsider? Oh, never mind.

Rubio’s a much better speaker. Otherwise they look the same. Short, squat build, gigantic horn rising out of their dorsal snout, voluminous clumps of Amnesty spoor littering their path…

This is no problem for the GPOe: if Jeb! wins they win; if Rubio wins they win.

Hahaha. Jeb! has his hand over his left lung. Stupid establishment guys, amirite?

As a Floridian and someone who is involved in local politics, JEB! is just not liked. In fact, many will say that he is too much in the mold of Senator McConnell and Speaker Boehner. Very few Republicans want Common Core aka The Florida Standards and this is such a controversial issue here that it is hung around JEB!s neck. Gov. Scott implementing it despite the controversy keeps it in the forefront,

As for Rubio, his support of “amnesty” is a suspicion with many GOP voters. He needs to be careful of not being cozy with McCain and Shumer and Reid and Gramnasty. Rubio just may win Florida if he stays focused on conservative principles. Even winning Florida does not mean Rubio wins the nomination.

If JEB! does not win Florida and is not the nominee many here will be elated!

    Barry in reply to natdj. | September 23, 2015 at 2:41 am

    “If JEB! does not win Florida and is not the nominee many here will be elated!”

    See the first comment by Rags. You can go ahead and be elated. Rubio will not win Florida either…

    peg_c in reply to natdj. | September 23, 2015 at 9:34 am

    Overall, I agree, except about Rubio’s “conservative principles.” He’s like several TP candidates in 2010 who got in only to screw us over shortly afterward. Cannot be trusted. Better than Jeb doesn’t equal good.

      natdj in reply to peg_c. | September 23, 2015 at 9:38 am

      I agree. I am undecided and believe that Rubio should be running for re-election for senate. Rumor here is that if he is not President or VP, he is being pushed to run for governor in 2018. That is plausible because Rubio was speaker of the house and also the next speakers here in the Florida House are very close friends of Rubio. In fact, the next speaker was Rubio’s chief of staff.

The best news is Trump 31.5 and Fiorina 8.3 behind Carson. So much for the media’s latest anti Trump

Geo. H.W. and Geo. W. were both disappointments to clearly conservatives, but ¡Jeb! is going out of his way to demonstrate that he won’t even pretend to be conservative.

    He’s not even doing a very good job of pretending that he wants to be President of the United States. I honestly don’t think he wants it – which is fine, of course, but I wish he’d have the guts to just come out and say it.

    “Stop trying to make Jeb! happen! It’s not going to happen!”

I’d never vote for Jeb and I don’t trust Rubio as far as I can throw him. He is a better speaker; that is all. Fiorino speaks well, too. But she’s totally untrustworthy on more than just Islam.

Why say ‘Jeb’ when you can legitimately say ‘¡Jeb!’? This should be pushed in every article all the time. He might have donors he has no voters. If he get’s the nom it will be time to form a third party.

So here’s the deal, if you want a clone of JEB to be the 2016 Republican presidential nominee, support Sen Rubio.

Sammy Finkelman | September 24, 2015 at 1:18 pm

This is not new news – this is old news I looked at polls before the first debate and it was pretty obvious that Rubio had to be doing better in Florida than Jeb Bush. Jeb Bush’s support was more national, while Rubio ot maybe 2.3 of the familiar figure/favorite son vote. And the only Kasic got in the first debate was becase of Ohio. In Texas, he faviorite son/familiar face poll answrs went to Ted Cruz rather tahn Rick Perry. Christie got that support in New York and New Jersey – not George Pataki.

Bobby Jindal is actually unpopular in Louisiana because of the loophole he found (with the approval of Grover Norquist) in his no net new taxes pledge:

He raised tuition in the state universities, refunded the money via a tax cut – by a method in which no money actually changed hands either way – and then balanced that tax cut with some new taxes. He forced the state legislature to do things that way, and it’s probably the creative accounting that’s responsible.

Sammy Finkelman | September 24, 2015 at 1:22 pm

Of course Donald Trump is outpolling both of them in Florida and would win the primary and all the delegates (it is a winner take all primary) if the primary were held today.

It was previously thought that one of the two would have to drop out if they didn’t win the Florida primary. That was probably more true for Rubio, than for Jeb Bush, but if Trump wins, both can stay in.

Sammy Finkelman | September 24, 2015 at 1:36 pm

Rubio was already leading Bush or tied in April:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/florida-poll-rollout-helps-rubio-tie-bush-in-home-state-117069

Rubio garnered 31 percent support from Republicans and essentially tied Bush’s 30 percent, according to a Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey conducted Tuesday through Thursday and shared exclusively with POLITICO. The other likely and announced presidential candidates polled in the single digits and 17 percent were undecided.

That was before Donald Trump announced, and, incidently, said something about illegal immigration (I’m not sure he planned that)

Sammy Finkelman | September 24, 2015 at 1:41 pm

Notice that Trump wins the primary, but he loses, or almost loses the general election at this stage to Hillary Clinton but every other Republican wins.

Sammy Finkelman | September 24, 2015 at 1:47 pm

Jeb Bush is quite literally the only person in the GOP field that Clinton would actually beat in the general election.

The way I read that artivle, that’s Donald Trump (or rather with Trump it;s too close to call.

In the primary, at this stage, Donald Trump beats both Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio combined by one percentage point. (31.5% to 30.5%)

As you can see, he gets less than a third, altogether, though.

All these answers are in many cases forced answers, and may indicate no more than a person is thinking of them as a first choice. The polls would be better if they asked for up to 3 or 5 choices.

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