Image 01 Image 03

CBS Poll – Trump Leads at 40% NH and 29% Iowa

CBS Poll – Trump Leads at 40% NH and 29% Iowa

Ben Carson closest in NH with 12% and Iowa with 25%

CBS News released new polling data today. Professor Jacobson covered the Democratic side and you can read about it here.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump has a massive lead in New Hampshire. Ben Carson is second but is still far behind.


In Iowa, Trump leads and Carson is second but it’s much closer:

CBS Poll Iowa

In South Carolina, Trump leads with 36% and Ben Carson has 21%.

These poll questions explain a lot, especially number three:

CBS Poll question

You can see the full results here.

New Hampshire is below:

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker: New Hampshire


Donations tax deductible
to the full extent allowed by law.


This is CBS trying to manufacture news rather than report news.

Ted Cruz isn’t even in the top 4 in NH. Really?

Why is Carson up in Iowa? Evangelical vote? Not sure people will like “Dr. Huxtable” once they find out his position on the Second Amendment and illegal immigration.

    Moreover, he is pals with the outgoing Baltimore mayor.

      platypus in reply to Rick. | September 14, 2015 at 2:02 am

      So? That’s likely why the mayor IS going out – Ben whispered “get out while you can” in her ear.

    pesanteur in reply to ZurichMike. | September 13, 2015 at 9:08 pm

    What is his position on guns?

    This is what he told Breitbart last month:

    “The 2nd Amendment cannot, in any way, be compromised. It is such an important part of our freedoms. It was Daniel Webster who said that people of America would never suffer under tyranny because they are armed, and I believe that with all my heart and would never compromise the 2nd Amendment.”

The Muslim invasion of Europe and it is an invasion even if the media keeps calling them migrants has to be helping Trump as most Americans are fed up with feeling like second class citizens to illegals and now seeing Obama wanting to bring thousands more Syrian Muslims here to America. Muslims can’t be trusted and they won’t assimilate into our culture. We see that in Europe where they have refused to assimilate and instead keep pushing for Sharia law and Halal food and everything else thats associated with their evil ideology called Islam.

Oh and Obama doesn’t want Christian Syrians, only Muslims need apply.

    obama can probably get Saudi Arabia to build a few hundred more mosques here in the U.S., just to help us out.

    Radegunda in reply to foxmuldar. | September 13, 2015 at 10:46 pm

    Trump recently came out strongly in favor of self-censorship in order to avoid offending Muslims.

    He said it was wrong for Americans, on American soil, to hold an event intended to claim our First Amendment freedom to draw a cartoon and label it “Muhammad,” even though Muslims consider it blasphemous.

    It might have something to do with Trump’s Dubai investments.

    In any case, he demonstrated that for all his vaunted anti-PC reputation, he’s shaky on the First Amendment, and that he doesn’t really understand the problem of Islam.

      tom swift in reply to Radegunda. | September 14, 2015 at 1:00 am


      That implies that he’s not in favor of the government doing the censoring. And that means that he’s not an enemy of the First Amendment.

        Radegunda in reply to tom swift. | September 14, 2015 at 12:32 pm

        Apparently you don’t understand the implications of endorsing Islamic de facto censorship.

        Trump endorsed the Islamic belief that non-Muslims must not express themselves in ways that offend Muslims. He said it was wrong to hold an event designed precisely to assert our right not to be silenced by Islamic taboos.

        He could and should have said that our elected government has an obligation to guard our free-speech rights in the face of violent objections to what we say. Instead, he gave vocal support to the power of censorship that Muslims exercise when they threaten or inflict violence on “blasphemers.”

        For a presidential candidate to take that position is certainly not an encouraging sign that he would vigorously protect our right to live free from the efforts of others to silence us in the name of their own religion.

Looks like Fiorina’s bump up has ended.

Republican Poll Question: What’s important in a candidate?

A. “Their experience in getting things done in policy and politics” : 19%
B. “Their experience in getting things done in business and private sector” : 36%

Dear Iowans, experience running a corporation is not the same as experience serving as the executive of a representative republic with separation of powers.

    Dear Iowans @aucturian’s point is very important if you think the politician non business experienced losers nominated by the GOP since Reagan have worked out really well for you and the country as a whole. If not, then just happily ignore his BS and vote Trump.

    tom swift in reply to Aucturian. | September 14, 2015 at 1:07 am

    So, you figure Iowans should hold out for an ex-President to jump into the race? He’d have the experience you want to see. But he’d likely also have that pesky 22nd Amendment in his way.

Dear anyone voting:

When you are the CEO of a company you report to a board of directors and are responsible to stockholders to make a return on investment. You don’t care about your competitors or other businesses unless you are looking for a new job.

Business is different than government. In Michigan, we have a CEO, Rick Snyder, who toyed with running, and perhaps he should. He has run a successful business and been pretty successful as a Republican governor in a blue state. Romney is also a successful businessman. I guess the bankruptcies and mouth make Trump a better man.

    platypus in reply to Mich. | September 14, 2015 at 2:07 am

    Thayrone says he’s a democrat with an R initial. As far as I can tell, his refusal to sign the bill banning gun free zones proved he doesn’t get conservative values.

40% Meh. There’s only 12 Republicans in New Hampshire and Teh Donald bought half of them lunch. 😉

Most of these conversations about Trump are taking place within a crumbling paradigm of rules, manners and pedigree — a world that Republicans wish to cling to but simply doesn’t exist anymore. They — the conversants — seem determinedly blind to the ravening frustration of voters who recognize the failure and collapse of the paradigm as they recognize and are drawn to its simple rejection by Trump. That Trump says what he thinks and doesn’t appear to care what people think about what he says (given the stipulation so far that what he says is salient and what people are thinking and desperately hoping SOMEONE will say) is not ALL that matters but still matters hugely, surpassingly. It is also evident that none of the other candidates are as self-confident or for whatever reason of political fear or incapacity CANNOT say what Trump is saying in the way he is saying it. They have had every opportunity — the same Trump has had. But they CANNOT, for whatever reason. Anyway, the paradigm is shattered. Trump gets this. The game is wide open for any of these other candidates if they can also grasp this reality.

    Radegunda in reply to pesanteur. | September 13, 2015 at 10:53 pm

    Trump seems to be afraid of saying (or drawing) things that Muslims consider offensive.

    Being willing to offend people who can’t hurt you (because you’re a billionaire and you think everything’s fine as long as you’ve got “a beautiful young piece of a$$”) is not quite the same as being a bold truth-teller.

    The fact that Trump’s supposed principles have been so fluid is also not the sign of bold truth-telling.

      platypus in reply to Radegunda. | September 14, 2015 at 2:15 am

      Okay, let’s get real. Trump can’t crap on Muzzies because he has contractual obligations that require otherwise. If he were to screw up a deal based on what he said on the campaign trail, the board would likely toss him out of his own company. And anyone who lost profits due to his careless commentary would be suing him personally for their damages.

      His perceived reticence is a reflection of his integrity.

    You are right, although it is definitely not true that the field is wide open, if Joe Miller’s analysis can be believed. The GOP and RNC changed all the rules and stacked all the decks specifically to ensure Cruz can NEVER be elected and in fact only Jeb can. Although their decks don’t account for Trump, who is owned and beholden to no one and is fully self-funded. He’s the monkey wrench (kind of like 0bozo with all that foreign money taking Hillary down, except Trump doesn’t despise America). Everyone should read this. It also explains the semi-secret alliance between Trump and Cruz.

    And a main takeaway is just how much the GOP and RNC truly loathe US (big surprise, I know).

Wide Wide World of Deports –> Winning!

Trump: a Hillary and Sanders hybrid of big socialist government.

Trump has no business playing god with other people’s money.

Without a doubt it is government that IS the problem. Government is the biggest consumer and waster of our money, not the highly paid CEOs who reinvest their wealth into something productive.

The market should decide who gets paid what and NOT Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

I pray that this clown does not get nominated. We as a nation will pay a heavy price for Trump’s brashness.–sector.html

NC Mountain Girl | September 14, 2015 at 9:13 am

The difference between Trump’s numbers in NH and IA probably reflects the vast gulf between the level of dedication to a candidate required for people to commit several hours of time to participate with their neighbors in a caucus and the time it takes to cast a confidential ballot. Many angry people will saymonths in advance they are willing to cast a protest vote. Far fewer will be willing to let their neighbors know they support a celebrity clown prince like Trump.

The New Hampshire voter screen is also weak. People lie about being registered to vote and about intention to vote, especially when asked about in primary elections. The most effective but expensive to conduct voter screen is to ask people if they voted in the last presidential primary and who the person voted for in the last primary. The responses of those who didn’t participate in earlier primaries, who can’t remember or who otherwise seem tentative are then weighted at a discount to reflect they may not actually show up.

Long ago my Dad built a house on our back lot. According to the City of Los Angeles, this house had to have a sidewalk. There wasn’t a sidewalk within 5 miles of our place, but that was the “law.” Unless you could get a variance!

So I took pictures of each street in our neighborhood; made binders full of these photos, all demonstrating that a sidewalk would fit in about like a moslem fits into a democracy, i.e. not at all.

Then my Dad and I went from one city bureaucracy to the next, trying to find ONE that would grant us the variance; no surprise, none of the bureaucrats would do it; we got referred & referred again. Finally we found one guy in one department who was retiring! Yay, he granted us the variance! (Only because he didn’t care, was the impression I got.)

That taught me a lot. It amazes me that so many intelligent people here have no respect for a man who has built amazingly wonderful buildings in places where every bureaucrat, in each and every department, loathes and detests any businessman that comes near; who count coup with each denial of each permit. He got the buildings built anyway, before deadline and under budget. But you have no respect for Donald Trump; it really is like Caddyshack!

Maybe some here ought to check out that film once again; seems that you’ve forgotten who the real loser was!

For informed commentary, with very little gnashing of teeth (sadly becoming too common here,) see:

    Ragspierre in reply to Eskyman. | September 14, 2015 at 6:30 pm


    Why didn’t I see this before? IT’S all so CLEAR to me now!

    T-rump is just an “Every Man” who has trudged between bureaucratic offices in a never-ending fight to bring beauty and grace to Gotham! I see it now!

    Or, better still, he’s Howard Roark of Ayn Rand’s “Fountainhead”, the idealistic, rugged individual with an architectural vision no one could buy, who would work in a rock quarry rather than submit to one affront to his “amazingly wonderful buildings”.

    Except for the fact that he’s on the other end of the scale from all that, and hasn’t set foot in a zoning office in 40 years.

    He has “people” for that, as befits an oligarch. Rather, he flies about all that in his own fleet of aircraft. And he buys and sells influence, as he has all his life entire, being Mr. Establishment, the guy who would “fire” Howard Roark and put him back in the quarry because he would not affix “T-R-U-M-P” to one of his building designs.


      jayjerome66 in reply to Ragspierre. | September 14, 2015 at 7:03 pm

      “IT’S all so CLEAR to me now!”

      Yeah right.

      Because something is happening here
      But you don’t know what it is
      Do you, Mister Buffoon…

      The growing support for Trump among Republicans, and among the modern version of Reagan Democrats, is a REJECTION of your kind of Elitist Theorist Comservatism.

      The percentage of Americans who give a rats ass about ETC is rapidly shrinking.

        Ragspierre in reply to jayjerome66. | September 14, 2015 at 7:40 pm

        Well, I don’t speak for Republicans, since I ain’t one, and most Reagan Dems are dead now, so I won’t pretend to speak for them, like you do.

        But there is no such thing as an “elite” Conservative, you lying SOS.

        We believe in the opposite of “elites”.

        And I’ve been in the wilderness before. I quite like it, because it is not populated with bigots like you. We like people!

          jayjerome66 in reply to Ragspierre. | September 15, 2015 at 2:17 am

          Like people? You are in denial once again.

          The only people you like are those who agree with you.

          Or have you conveniently forgotten the number of posters you insulted here? You know, the ones that pumped up your thumbs-down scores with double-digit numbers.

          Ragspierre in reply to Ragspierre. | September 15, 2015 at 7:09 am

          You poor, sorry, lying thing. I don’t dislike people with whom I disagree. Disagreement is simply a thing we do as thinking people.

          Now, you I detest, because you are a liar and a troll. You’re sick, and you know it.

You’d expect someone to learn what NOT to do from a first bankruptcy.
You’d expect someone to learn what NOT to do from a second bankruptcy.
You’d expect someone to learn what NOT to do from a third bankruptcy.

After four bankruptcies Trump has succeeded as a “businessman” by failing at someone else’s expense.

He now wants to be in control of your money and put his brand on you.

No way, Don Ald!

    Trump did learn from the bankruptcies, Jennifer.
    He learned to financially survive them.
    Or haven’t you checked out his net worth?

    And he didn’t fail at someone else’s expense.
    He shared the failures with the banks who gave him the loans.
    Those were all casino bankruptcies. A volatile industry for bank loans.
    When banks make loans of those kinds, they are In a business partnership of sorts with whoever recieves the money. Both sides are assessing risk. If the casinos are profitable the banks profit from the interest. If the casinos fail, both sides share the failure in time, money and future liabilities (trumps debt on earlier casino bankruptcies were carried over for repayment In the more recent loans).

    And the way our economy is going, somebody with shrewd bankruptcy history may prove useful in the Oval Office.

      Ragspierre in reply to jayjerome66. | September 14, 2015 at 7:55 pm

      Wow. Several statements of putative fact.

      Got links, lying SOS?

        jayjerome66 in reply to Ragspierre. | September 15, 2015 at 1:37 am

        If you mean links to your probity, there are none.

        BTW where’s the link to your amended false statement that the ACLU was the only one to file suit in the Florida pea-in-a cup-case?

        And are you still struggling with those homo-erotic fantasies? Try a man’s remedy of a shot or two of Irish Whisky before you lay your head on the pillow; sipping those fizzy aperitifs thru a straw won’t do the trick.

      So you want me to share in Trump’s penchant for failure? Nope. Not me.

      “somebody with shrewd bankruptcy history”…you mean like Liz Warren.

      And, like Liz, the Donald wants to increase taxes on highly paid CEOs…just like Liz Warren and Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders and Progressives everywhere.

      Little wonder that Progressives like Warren and Krugman recently praised your materialist idol.

      Nope. I’ve learned enough to not trust Trump.

        What I’d like you to do, Jennifer, is not distort the record, and make an effort to see the big picture.

        Trump doesn’t have a penchant for failure in business.

        Those casino bankruptcies were just four deals that went south out of hundreds that he’s done.

        He has a way thinner record of failure than success in business.

        Unless you don’t consider a multi billionaire a successful businessman.

          I’ve stated the facts and made my own judgment about them. You read the same facts and think, “Wow what a guy! Trump kept screwing up with money and got chance after chance to succeed with the help of other’s money.” Sounds kinda like what we have now.

          In a materialist business world Trump successfully knows how to game people. Trump’s been into gaming for a long time.
          I don’t want a “player” in government.

Is Donald Trump really the super-awesome business executive armed with the leadership, management and talent-spotting skills up the wazoo that he so often claims? Or is he someone who overlooks intelligence, thoughtfulness, leadership skills, guts, commitment to principle, capacity to work with others, knowledge of markets, policy and laws, and relevant job experience in potential hires and who, as you might expect of such a person, is actually a much more mediocre businessman than he lets on?

Steve Green (an actual conservative) calls that piece a “must read”.

T-rump is a demonstrable economics boob, and a BIG GOVERNMENT Collectivist.