We know from recent polling that Hillary Clinton is in trouble in New Hamspshire.
Now she has problems in Iowa, according to a Des Moines Register poll released Saturday night:
Liberal revolutionary Bernie Sanders, riding an updraft of insurgent passion in Iowa, has closed to within 7 points of Hillary Clinton in the Democratic presidential race.She’s the first choice of 37 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers; he’s the pick for 30 percent, according to a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll.But Clinton has lost a third of her supporters since May, a trajectory that if sustained puts her at risk of losing again in Iowa, the initial crucible in the presidential nominating contest….”This feels like 2008 all over again,” said J. Ann Selzer, pollster for the Iowa Poll.
The trendline is horrible for Hillary:
Even without being in the race, Joe Biden takes 14%:
Put this together with the unbelievably bad word association poll recently released by Quinnipiac, in which Clinton is most described as a liar, dishonest and untrustworthy, and it should be panic time in Clintonworld.
What difference does it make?
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Donald Trump leads:
A new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll finds that Trump, the flamboyant real estate entrepreneur, has 23 percent support here. But Ben Carson, a soft-spoken retired neurosurgeon, has been a submarine, quietly cruising into second with 18 percent, just 5 percentage points from the front-runner.Carson has the highest favorability rating of the 17 Republican candidates, with 79 percent who view him positively. Only 8 percent have negative feelings about him.All the other candidates are grinding away in the single digits, in this order: Ted Cruz and Scott Walker (both 8 percent), Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio (both 6 percent), Carly Fiorina (5 percent), and Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul (both 4 percent)….Bringing up the rear are Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal and John Kasich (all with 2 percent); Rick Perry and Rick Santorum (both 1 percent); and Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki (all with less than 1 percent).
Here are the breakdowns of some of the top contenders. Most interesting is that Trump’s favorable are up dramatically and business-establishment types favor him over Jeb:
Trump has pulled off a reversal in how caucusgoers view him. In May, his favorability was upside down: Just 27 percent viewed him favorably and 63 percent unfavorably. Now, it’s 61 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable.Business-oriented establishment types are going for Trump over Jeb Bush 30 percent to 16 percent, said J. Ann Selzer, pollster for the Iowa Poll.
Scott Walker needs a serious turnaround:
Caucus goers still really like the Wisconsin governor, but he’s no longer their first choice.Walker gets half the vote he got in May (now 8 percent, down from 17 percent). Even so, he is up a bit in favorability, trailing only Ben Carson in that measure.He does best with tea party Republicans (85 percent favorable, 11 percent unfavorable).Ketzner said: “Walker has had a rough summer. He made a great first impression but hasn’t capitalized during the spring and summer months. Iowa is a must-win state for him, and he needs to reignite his campaign soon.”
Jeb is treading water, and doesn’t excite:
Iowa Republican likely caucusgoers are tepid toward Jeb Bush, with just 10 percent saying their feelings are very favorable, Selzer said.He’s upside down on overall favorability at 45 percent favorable, 50 percent unfavorable, including 19 percent very unfavorable.Bush is right side up with moderates (60 percent favorable, 36 percent unfavorable), business-oriented establishment Republicans (64 percent/33 percent), those with household incomes of $100,000 or more (59 percent/38 percent), first-time caucus attendees (52 percent/41 percent), those with a college degree or higher (51 percent/44 percent) and those living in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District, in southeastern Iowa (51 percent/44 percent).
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