Mini-Ice Age prediction heats up Climate Change debate!
The elite media gives the new report the cold shoulder.
A new study has recently been published that has really heated up Climate Change arguments.
Valentina Zharkova, a professor of mathematics at Northumbria University in the United Kingdom, used a new model of the sun’s solar cycle and its periodic change in solar radiation emissions to predict a “mini Ice Age” may begin shortly.
The earth is 15 years from a “mini ice-age” that will cause bitterly cold winters during which rivers such as the Thames freeze over, scientists have predicted.
Solar researchers at the University of Northumbria have created a new model of the sun’s activity which they claim produces “unprecedentedly accurate predictions”.
They said fluid movements within the sun, which are thought to create 11-year cycles in the weather, will converge in such a way that temperatures will fall dramatically in the 2030s.
Solar activity will fall by 60 per cent as two waves of fluid “effectively cancel each other out”, according to Prof Valentina Zharkova.
Legal Insurrection covered this concept, termed “Maunder Minimums,” is a previous post related to global warming.
Needless to day, Zharkova’s prediction as met with the usual derision from “settled science” believers who prefer to blame mankind for all adverse weather.
Elite media instantly attacked the nature of where the information is reported, then cited studies that have been previously criticized by those of us skeptical of the current “climate change” hysteria:
UK tabloids, conservative media, and others are (mis)reporting that the Earth will enter a “mini ice age” in the 2030s. In fact, not only is the story wrong, the reverse is actually true.
The Earth is headed toward an imminent speed-up in global warming, as many recent studies have made clear, like this June study by NOAA.
In fact, Legal Insurrection published a post that countering the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency) report used in the above critique.
Naturally, the press went after Zharkova’s professional credentials, too!
…It’s always nice to see the public take an interest in science. But it’s problematic when that science is misrepresented, flawed or even worse, dishonest.
According to a number of climate experts, Zharkova’s work is at least two of those three things.
In fairness, Zharokova’s study didn’t directly predict a miniature ice age. Her work focuses on solar activity. She suggests the irregular heartbeat governing the sun’s electromagnetic activity is about to skip a few beats.
More accurately, Zharkova says the magnetic waves that cause sunspots exist as two divergent — and competing — frequencies. These frequencies will soon cancel each other out, she says, leading to a reduction in radiation hurled towards Earth.
Regardless, news stories tended to focus on the possibility of an upcoming ice age.
At least part of the blame lies with a National Astronomy Meeting, held last week in Llandudno, Wales. The organization sent out the press release that helped shine the spotlight on Zharokova’s research — which has not been published in a peer-reviewed journal.
But if Zharokova wanted to distance herself from dubious climatic predictions, she hasn’t helped her cause. She recently went on record questioning the consensus of anthropogenic global warming. She believes the sun’s fluctuating output plays a greater role in influencing temperature than does the greenhouse gas effect.
“I am not convinced with the arguments of the group promoting global warming of an anthropogenic nature,” Zharkova told The Washington Post.
While I am not rushing out to buy a parka, I am a firm believer that the Sun plays a much more significant role in global climate changes that humanity. Interestingly, one study that the elite media is ignoring actually supports the newest report. This information was published in 2013 and involves hard data obtained from ice core analysis.
According to Professor Lockwood [a leading scientist from Reading University] the late 20th century was a period when the sun was unusually active and a so called ‘grand maximum’ occurred around 1985.
Since then the sun has been getting quieter.
By looking back at certain isotopes in ice cores, he has been able to determine how active the sun has been over thousands of years.
Following analysis of the data, Professor Lockwood believes solar activity is now falling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years.
He found 24 different occasions in the last 10,000 years when the sun was in exactly the same state as it is now – and the present decline is faster than any of those 24.
Based on his findings he’s raised the risk of a new Maunder minimum from less than 10% just a few years ago to 25-30%.
And a repeat of the Dalton solar minimum which occurred in the early 1800s, which also had its fair share of cold winters and poor summers, is, according to him, ‘more likely than not’ to happen.
By 2030, we should know if the mini-Ice Age model has any merit, or if the dire warnings of an ice-free Arctic are true! But, today, one thing is 100% certain: The behavior of the press when confronted with any information that strays from its cherished narrative.
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But then comes the horrible thought environmentalists may not want to face:
Thanks to the emission of greenhouse gases, this may not happen.
Only if the greenhouse gas effect is as strong as predicted by their group, which isn’t necessarily the case.
I know you probably threw that idea out for discussion, but I think the beneficial effect of CO2 warming here will only be small. But even a small effect would be welcome. Having kayaked and swam in Antarctica I can tell you that extreme cold is a bitch.
“Thanks to the emission of greenhouse gases, this may not happen.”
Yea, right. The 1 billionth of 1 percent man contributes to “greenhouse gases” is going to alter the climate path determined by forces of strength beyond our measure or understanding.
You people really are tools and fools.
These people really have no shame. The level of hubris is mind-boggling. Do they actually think they can “model” something as complex as the climate and fluid dynamics of an entire planet and make such predictions accurately? What pompous assholes. They should be given a punch in the face and a kick in the nuts, not a government grant.
An excellent point.
And it’s not the first time, either, that gov’t has been wrong. Compare the cholesterol scare with AGW. Many parallels!
The only thing about comparing any cooling today to ‘The Little Ice Age’ (LIA) is to remember there was also an upsurge of volcanic activity before it occurred, namely four VEI-6 eruptions in 80 years including the biggest event at the Greek island of Santorini. As Europe seems to have borne the brunt of the LIA, the 20th Century’s spread of American and Asia VEI’s probably means such extremes wouldn’t be seen, assuming Sol is behaving exactly as before. We’ve all seen warmists get carried away on the heady brew of AlGorehol, let’s not do the same ourselves.
The Minoan eruption of Thera (modern Santorini), the largest volcanic eruption in recorded history, occurred in the Bronze Age, the late 17th century BC; the classic “Little Ice Age” began at the beginning of the 14th century AD and lasted until the mid-18th century. The two had no connection whatsoever. All evidence suggests that significant climate changes like the LIA, and the Medieval Warm Period that preceded it, are the result of significant changes in solar activity.
Over the last 20 years satellite data shows little to no global warming. So agit-prop Left slyly stopped using global warming and slipped in “climate change” instead.
Now the very influence of the Sun compared to CO2 is doubted by the agit-prop left. I suggest we as a people offer to transport the agit-prop left to a CO2 free world and let them decide which is more influential on climate. The moon is perfect or Mars.
I don’t know if the sun is going to drive us into a new LIA but I do know that these predictions are at least as good as the IPCC’s politically driven “findings.”
And once again, the biggest loser is people’s confidence in the pursuit of knowledge through science.
Think about it. When was the last time you were confident that the “new scientific research/data” you just heard about was reliable? And not perverted by political biases and….yes, the pursuit of money.
Henryhas it covered either way. I wearing fur-lined long underwear bottoms and a tank top with sunglasses.
Good for you. You’re not a cryogenic baby!
And he’s such a fashionista!
I am a style master, never afraid to take a risk. You should see my collection of kimonos.
“In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock.”
Practical, yes, but I look damn good.
So you like your hot dogs and beans steamed, huh?
Kielbasa and potatoes, but yes.
Been there. Done that.
Circa 1977 (and yes, that’s “Mr. Spock”, Leonard Nimoy):
In Search of…..The Coming Ice Age.
Some of the “experts” in this show are the mentors and/or current climate “science” myth-makers crying “The sky is falling! The sky is falling!”.
They’ve come full circle. And they must think we don’t remember, us stupid, ignorant rubes.
Here’s Israeli astrophysicist Dr. Nir Shaviv explaining why the sun and other cosmic radiation is the primary driver of climate. Look how tightly correlated sea level rise is to changes in radiation in his graph. I don’t think he’s predicting a mini ice age, but he is adamant that the assumptions about climate sensitivity to CO2 built into the climate models are wrong and the models grossly understate the importance of cosmic radiation.
The good news is that the solution for the problem of global cooling is exactly the same as the solutions for global warming, overpopulation, and global famine —
More world governing agencies to spend those taxes. Entirely at their discretion.
More governance by our ‘betters’ instead of that icky democracy.
Population reduction — for Mother Earth, of course.
Did I miss anything?
Yes. You missed POPULATION CONTROL.
Which they used the last time they predicted a new ice age, too.
Holdren and Paul and Anne Ehrlich are dangerous “scientists.” Then and now.
Dangerous is right. The New York Times deserves credit for creating this video montage exposing Ehrlich for being wrong about everything his entire life. They clip together footage of “true believers” in the Population Bomb scare from the ’70s and how people changed behaviors. See how similar the doom that existed about overpopulation then is like the doom they’re stoking about global warming now. It’s almost identical.
They were wrong then and they are wrong now.
What’s unfortunate about this prediction, if true, is the effect on higher-frequency shortwave radio. Goodbye 10 meters, hello 80 meters!
I need to go back to the original paper and see, but it would be interesting to run the model from an earlier starting point and see if it would have predicted sunspot Cycle 19 in 1957.
The researchers claim their new solar cycle model replicates past cycles with 97% accuracy.
IIRC, CB was carved out of the 10 meter Ham band. We used to use CB for local communications up here in Alaska, but the FCC stopped enforcing power limets on the CB linears and wiped us out.
No problem some egoass learning his super megawatt linear is no longer any use.
The “Climate Change” supporters have been in a bind. If ANY major legislation had been passed prior to the “Pause” then they could claim victory for their position no matter what happened afterward. Look at the “ozone hole” issue… where victory is claimed in healing the Antarctic ozone hole by banning of fluorocarbons although only some Western countries (such as US) banned the chemicalswhile other major users didn’t. Trillions of dollars of money are slipping away from the Climatizers as Mr. Sun slips from daydreaming pause to potentially deep sleep ice age.
Reminds me of the liberal Democrats claiming success for LBJ’s “Great Society” because of the drop in poverty in the first 7 years after its implementation. What they neglected was that poverty have been falling at the same rate for the previous 7 years too!
Oh I love it!
Links and references please?
The prediction of an impending mini-ice age is nothing new. The 15 year horizon seems to be but that’s all. The appearance of a connection between general temperature and sunspots is interesting – and the recent solar maximum really has been amazingly minimum-like – but it’s not proved.
Still, my wife keeps telling me she wants to move to Maine (where she has friends) and I keep saying that this is the wrong time to go north!
Zharkova’s work does something that no AGW work has done. She and her colleagues created a model that accurately (to 97%) replicates known historic solar activity (from ice cores, tree ring data, deep sea floor cores, etc.). No current climate model is able to run from a point in the past, say one hundred years ago, to the present, and arrive at the current conditions. (This is a known problem with all climate models.) Climate models are incapable of replicating the past, how can they possibly predict the future? Because Zharkova’s model can replicate the past, it should be a much more reliable indicator of the future.
A model that can’t replicate the past, if given starting data from the past, is not worth the paper it’s written on.
The “scientists” who “settled” the debate have blown every prediction over the last 40 years. Why should I listen to them again?