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Republicans to pick apart the Obama Coalition in 2016

Republicans to pick apart the Obama Coalition in 2016

“The Democrats have no coalition of their own.”

2016 is still quite a way off but that hasn’t stopped speculation about the chances for each of the major parties.

Bill Barrow of the Associated Press looks back at the last few elections and raises an important question for the next one:

Can GOP shatter ‘Obama coalition’ in 2016?

Republicans crowed in 2004 that freshly re-elected President George W. Bush had established a “permanent governing majority” for the GOP. Eight years later, Democrats were touting the enduring power of the “Obama coalition” to keep their party in the White House.

But Democrats couldn’t sustain that coalition for this year’s midterm elections, leading to Republican gains in Congress, governorships and state legislatures nationwide.

“The notion of demographics as destiny is overblown,” said Republican pollster and media strategist Wes Anderson. “Just like (Bush aide Karl) Rove was wrong with that ‘permanent majority’ talk, Democrats have to remember that the pendulum is always swinging.”

So how will it swing in 2016? Is the path to 270 electoral votes so fixed that one side just can’t win? Does Obama’s unpopularity carry over into the next race for the White House? Or will an increasingly diverse electorate pick a Democrat for a third consecutive presidential election for the first time since Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman won five straight elections from 1932 to 1948?

Again, it’s still early. Neither party has even begun the primary process. Still, when it comes to the so-called Obama coalition, Democrats are going to realize that their coalition and Obama’s are two separate things.

I’m reminded of something Erick Erickson wrote at Townhall just after the last midterm.

The Democrats’ Obama Problem

Last Tuesday’s voter turnout should not give the Democrats the comfort they have taken from it. As should now be obvious, the Democrats have no coalition of their own. It is controlled by the very man who, the day after Curb-Stomp 2014, went on national television to stomp his feet in retaliation, rhetorically show voters his middle finger and behave generally like a petulant man-child. Democrats have a Barack Obama problem…

What can the Democrats do? They have been renting Obama’s coalition. Should they distance themselves from President Obama, they will anger President Obama’s base. Should they embrace President Obama, they will anger everyone else. Hillary Clinton will have a hard time running a big government campaign when Americans no longer trust big government. But should she try to claim government was not the failure, just Obama, she will have to fight him for votes. Democrats comforting themselves on low turnout in 2014 ignore that they will have to have a civil war to capture President Obama’s base from him in 2016.

President Obama will not go quietly.

The next two years should be fun to watch.


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With the party machines in full tilt, I expect that we will be offered to more candidates who have no business campaigning for the position.

I always remember this wonderful post-partisan …

For Republicans, the Ice Age Cometh
Numbers don’t lie. Unless Republicans overhaul their message, the losses will continue
By Mike Murphy Monday, June 22, 2009

Doug Wright Old Grouchy | December 27, 2014 at 1:21 pm

On target, let’er rip!

Subotai Bahadur | December 27, 2014 at 1:40 pm

Can GOP shatter ‘Obama coalition’ in 2016?

There is a basic misunderstanding of what is going on. The Institutional Republicans are part of the “Obama Coalition”.

People are locked into the idea that the Institutional Republicans and the Democrats are adversaries. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

We Conservatives and TEA Party members busted our collective tuchuses and gave the Republicans a wave election and control of both Houses of Congress. The mandate they were given was to fight back against Obama.

Obama answered with rule by decree declaring Amnesty. While there were one or two isolated statements of opposition, the mainstream Republican position was to fund all government functions at Democrat levels for the first year of the new Congress before they were sworn in, AND to fund the Amnesty Decree by moving the money into different government Departments. The coming “battle” over DHS funding is a sham, because the money and Decree have already been enshrined in law by the Republicans.

As we read and write here, the Republicans are preparing their own Amnesty Bill which is based on the Gang of 8 Democrat bill. They claim that it would roll back the Amnesty Decree, but it will lock it into statute instead. To quote a Republican writing the bill today:

A GOP committee aide said that a rollback of the executive action might initially be attached to the border bill but would have to eventually be stripped.

“If the intent is to pass a bill I’d want this decoupled. Otherwise, it will be vetoed,” he said.

There is a “Guest Worker” program included that gives all the benefits of the Gang of 8 bill. There will be no border enforcement, because …. well …. who is going to do the enforcing?

By the end of February, there will be no reason for the Republican party to continue to exist, other than as a Democrat cat’s paw to keep a real opposition party from arising.


    Congratulations to all of you who voted to give the Senate to “The Crusher” who has the same agenda as Harry Greed.
    You also set the table for the nomination of The Dauphin Jeb. WAY TO GO! Battered Conservative Syndrome on steroids.
    The U.S. Chamber of Corrupt Crony Capitalism thinks it is the only reason the GOP won in November. It is now threatening Republicans with opposition next go round if they don’t lay down and give the Chamber precisely what it wants,including on immigration, increased spending on transportation, and economic deals that sweeten the pot for big business.

    The corrupt gopE is willing to invest $1 billion to elect Hillary, thus “The Dauphin Jeb” will be shoved down your throats.

    The corrupt gopE doesn’t care about WINNING. They care about maintaining leadership of the party because the corruption must continue at all costs.

    Anyone who threatens to drain the swamp will be vilified.

JimMtnViewCaUSA | December 27, 2014 at 5:37 pm

On target.
“Republicans crowed in 2004 that freshly re-elected President George W. Bush had established a “permanent governing majority” for the GOP. Eight years later, Democrats were touting the enduring power of the “Obama coalition” to keep their party in the White House.”

Americans have delivered solid majorities to each party in turn. Neither party has shown a willingness to solve the problems facing the American people.

the Democrats will be scraping the stinky goo of Obama off their shoe for a long time.