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Joni Ernst up by 1 pt in new Des Moines Register Poll (#IASEN)

Joni Ernst up by 1 pt in new Des Moines Register Poll (#IASEN)

Remember when a recent Des Moines Register poll showed Republican Joni Ernst up by 6 points over Bruce Braley, and Democrats had a complete meltdown?

And I shouted Sooey!

A new poll shows that the gap has closed, with Ernst up 1 point, via Des Moines Register:

Iowa’s blitzkrieg U.S. Senate race is now a 1-point contest: Republican Joni Ernst is at 47 percent, and Democrat Bruce Braley is right at her heels at 46 percent with likely voters, a new Iowa Poll shows.

As armies of Democratic activists go door to door urging Iowans to fill out absentee ballots, they’re piling up votes for Braley, who was 6 points down just two weeks ago.

“Braley’s catching up,” said J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll, which was conducted Oct. 3-8.

But Ernst has made gains, too. She’s 3 percentage points higher than two weeks ago, when she was at 44 percent.

That’s obviously good news for Democrats that the gap has closed. But both candidates gained points, which means there are fewer undecided voters.

That Ernst is up at all, and consistently so, is good news for her.

The poll shows that Obamacare is unpopular:

So it’s going to be a tight race. And there’s a debate tonight.

Will Obama being “on the ballot” be the difference?


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a vote for Beetle “Bill” Bailey is a vote Mooch Obama approves of

Ironically, the opponents of voter identification should oppose Obamacare on the same terms for not addressing availability. Obamacare does not address affordability as it preserves costs but redistributes the consequences throughout the population.

I wonder how many secular women and men support conserving the faith-based (i.e. religious clause of the First Amendment) abortion exemption so that women can commit or contract for abortion of wholly innocent human lives. How many war protestors will join with the pro-life movement in: make life, not abortion/murder. How many opponents of capital punishment of criminals will support the termination of wholly innocent human lives. How many PETA-types will support the mass slaughter (2 million annually) of human life when it is uniquely vulnerable.

How important is money, sex, ego, and Obamacare to people?

Of course the rule of thumb is that for a Republican to have a chance of winning considering Democrat vote fraud, he or she has to be ahead by at least 5% in the polls before the election.

I know poll fever grips readers, and certainly the press – it keeps everyone from having to think/talk/report about the issues.

But it should be noticed that every result in a poll is “+/-” the margin of error. That means Ernst might be as high as 50.1% or as low as 43.9%. Braley could be from 49.1 to 42.9.

So this poll can only say (with 95% certainty) that Ernst could be ahead by 7.2% or Braley could lead by as much as 5.2%.

And these are the “accurate” polls of likely voters.

NC Mountain Girl | October 12, 2014 at 9:40 am

I suspect it has gotten to the point where most polls sponsored by news organizations are probably as accurate as those sponsored by the political parties themselves.