We’ve written extensively about Democrats’ troubles this election cycle, and how Republicans have reason to be confident (although not overly so) heading into Tuesday’s midterm elections. Most of the polling and analysis has focused on Republican chances to take the Senate, but recent reports show that Democrats are also scrambling to maintain their hold on key House and gubernatorial seats.
Analysts have never doubted Republicans’ ability to maintain their hold on the House, but Democrats’ spending in House races shows that even in normally friendly areas, their candidates are in trouble.
Via AP’s Big Story:
In one example, the Democratic committee has bought $99,000 in radio ads for eight-term Rep. Lois Capps in her Santa Barbara-area race against Chris Mitchum, the son of the late actor Robert Mitchum. The GOP candidate has relatively little money still on hand for his campaign — $96,108 — but the contest is considered close.
The committee also reserved $360,000 in air time for ads for first-term Rep. Steven Horsford in his central Nevada district north of Las Vegas after the Karl Rove-founded group Crossroads GPS made a late ad buy of $935,000. And In Hawaii, the Democrats are spending $200,000 on television ads and voter outreach for Mark Takai, who is locked in a tight race with former Republican Rep. Charles Djou in an open Honolulu-based district that Obama won with 70 percent of the vote.
In the closing days, the Democratic committee has invested $1.1 million in an effort to protect six incumbents in Georgia, Illinois, Minnesota, West Virginia and California.
With Obama persona non grata for many Democrats, former President Bill Clinton was campaigning in California on Wednesday.
“It’s a tough climate, it’s getting tougher,” Israel said. “It’s the worst climate for Democrats since 2010, but it won’t be 2010. We knew that this was coming and we prepared for it.”
They may think they’re prepared for a fight, but things aren’t looking good with regards to gubernatorial races, either. Real Clear Politics has classified just two races (California and New York) as “safe” for Democrats, and even their most high-profile candidate of the cycle is maintaining a slow and steady implosion.
In Texas, reports show that Democratic darling Wendy Davis is struggling to keep her head above water, with just $500,000 to work with in the last week of the cycle compared to Republican gubernatorial candidate Greg Abbott’s $13 million cash on hand.
Abbott is up more than 14 points on Davis, which may explain Davis’s comparatively empty coffers.
Similarly, in Georgia, gubernatorial candidate Nathan Deal has opened up a breathable 6 point lead over challenger Nathan Carter, mirroring David Perdue’s momentum over fellow Senate candidate Michelle Nunn.
Democrats have a history of deploying formidable GOTV efforts—and have done so in this cycle—so the fact that Republicans have gained solid momentum over Democratic candidates is not insignificant. With just six days to go until the polls close, I would never tell anyone to breathe easy, but it’s worth the time to take a look at the cracks that Republicans have managed to knock into the walls separating safe districts from battleground districts.DONATE
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