#MASEN boom #2 – PPP finds Markey leads by only 4 pts
Yesterday we posted how an Emerson College student polling group found Democratic Congressman Edward Markey leading in the June 25 Special Election over newcomer Republican Gabriel Gomez by a mere 6 points.
To the extent that student group could be discounted, it’s going to be harder to explain-away the similar results by Democratic and Daily Kos pollster PPP:
Ed Markey leads our first general election Massachusetts poll 44-40…full results will be up by noon
— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) May 3, 2013
Markey has been in Congress for 37 years, yet he’s only pulling mid-40s in support in a heavily Democratic state (Independents are the largest group).
There’s only one way for Markey to win: Destroy Gomez with negative attack ads and hyperventilating fear-mongering from the Massachusetts political class.
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To be honest, I’m not thrilled with Gomez. Seriously – Gomez or Markey, is there really a difference? I heard Gomez on Howie Carr yesterday; he said he fully supported Rubio on
Another Markey strategy could be more gentle or subtle. His TV ads I have seen so far (perhaps not many) were consistent in pushing his “experience.” So, I can see where they could continue that theme – experience versus an absolute rooky – and highlight every contradiction he makes throughout and every poor answer he gives to questions. That will help demotivate some of the independents and will surely take every bit of energy out of the few registered GOPers who would have come out and voted. I expect extremely low turnout with Markey having motivated more of the committed progressive voters.
How did that play out in the last MA election? You had an experienced Scott Brown vs that wet-behind-the-ears rookie Warren … but then again, she had a Cherokee ‘to die for’ Okie crab recipe that probably took the state by storm.
Presidential elections are always more ideological, bringing out large numbers overall, too. The good news, if there was any, was that over 700,00 voters for Obama couldn’t also pull the lever for Warren in that election. Brown lost without question. But like I said, in a special election, turnout will be low. And a strategy Markey may use is to discourage anyone on the fence about Gomez. Low turnout normally benefits the non-Dem, but Markey already started his primary by positioning himself as the experienced one.
That shouldn’t be a problem…
To the commenter walls: Mr. Gomez will vote the conservative line about as often as Scott Brown did, perhaps 60% or so.
Mr. Markey will vote the conservative line about as often as John Kerry did, perhaps 0% or so.
You might not be able to see the difference, but I can.
But thanks for the Eeyore impersonation. You may now report to Mr. Axelrod that you did your job and be paid for it.
“The art of the possible.”
Eeyore here. Seen bad republicans since Reagan. Saw them open the tent to proaborts. I stupidly voted for Dole. Never voted for W. I did vote against the commie.
It’s tempting to vote for Gomez, but here’s the rub. I vote Gomez, the party says, “Hey, they all voted for Gomez. Let’s give them more Brown and Gomez.” When do we let the republicans fail so that they run real candidates? My bigger worry is, like with Brown, once Gomez is in, he might run for president someday – a pro-gay, pro-choice (I know, he says he’s pro life – haha), Obama supporter on the republican ticket. Now wouldn’t that be ducky?
Yea, right … like I’d ever have anything to do with David. I happen to think Gomez is a lot more liberal than Brown.
I’m tired of voting for the lesser of two evils, and if a candidate lacks too much or their views are so out of whack with mine on key issues, I just sit it out. Some things are not worth compromising.
Gomez should just point how much malarkey Markey brings…
I’ll send a donation, even if Gomez doesn’t win, better to let him know he has some support.
Pro-life/marriage Republicans supported Sullivan and felt spurned the day after the primary when Gomez indicated no interest in having those values influence legislation.
That’s no way to unite the party. With talk like that, I won’t mind seeing the machine crush him.