I refuse to be drawn back into a Massachusetts Senate race where Ed Markey surely has a wide double-digit lead, having served for 37 years in Congress and being a well-known liberal stalwart.

Oh wait.

Emerson College Poll: Markey Starts with 6 Point Advantage Over Gomez in U.S. Senate Race:

A new survey of registered voters finds Congressman Ed Markey (D) with a 6 point lead over Republican candidate Gabriel Gomez 42 percent to 36 percent with 797 respondents. The Emerson College Polling Society (ECPS) survey is the first to look at the US Senate seat vacated by Secretary of State John Kerry since the Primary election. There was a 3.4 percent margin of error in the ECPS survey.

According to Felix Chen, President of ECPS, there is a post primary bounce for Gomez, and while the race is currently very close, it may only be a honeymoon period for the Republican who was a virtual unknown just a few months ago.

Both Markey and Gomez have high favorability ratings at 48% and 45%, but Markey also carries a high unfavorable rating of 37%, compared to Gomez who is at 25%. According to Chen, the results suggest Markey may have a problem attacking Gomez, a situation similar to that faced by Scott Brown when he attacked Elizabeth Warren in the 2012 Election; Warren like Gomez had high favorability ratings.

The survey also suggests that Independents are breaking for Gomez at a nearly 2 to 1 rate (46% to 25%) which is typically the ratio that Republicans need to be successful in Statewide Elections here in the Bay state.

There appears to be a divide among voters by gender as well. Markey has 46% of the female vote to Gomez at 29% but Gomez captures 44% of the male vote to Markey at 37%.

Emerson MASEN Poll 5-2-2013  - Ballot test

The poll is by an Emerson College student-run polling society, but from the website it appears to be under faculty supervision.  The full results and internals of the poll are here, and the party breakdown seems to be in line with recent party identification in Massachusetts.

Emerson MASEN Poll 5-2-2013  - Party Affiliation

Both candidates have similar favorable, but Markey starts out with higher unfavorable.  Expect Dems to work hard to bring Gomez’s unfavorable up.

Emerson MASEN Poll 5-2-2013  - Name Recognition

Surely PPP is going to puncture this narrative.  Oh wait:

Is this enough to draw Legal Insurrection back into a Massachusetts Senate race?

Whom the Gods would destroy, first they torment with trying to win a Massachusetts Senate seat for a Republican.

Does that answer your question?

Update — Looks like Markey is reading the same polls, because he just launched his first attack ad on Gomez, featuring a split screen with Gomez and Osama bin Laden:

Markey Negative Ad Dishonorable Disclosures

Here’s the video:


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