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Help get Chris Gibson (NY-19) over the finish line

Help get Chris Gibson (NY-19) over the finish line

With two weeks until Election Day, Operation Counterweight in Upstate New York is approaching its home stretch. Below is an update for the 19th district, where Chris Gibson faces Julian Schreibman.

While Gibson is doing well in this Democratic district, Roll Call still rates it a tossup.  Please donate to Gibson today for a last minute push.

As before, this analysis were prepared by a Cornell student who wishes to remain anonymous.

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This race still seems to work in Gibson’s favor. Gibson’s most recent internal polling finds him up 50%-39%, a decrease from last month’s 16 point lead in an independent Siena poll.

Even so, the Gibson campaign isn’t likely to be complacent. As Schreibman’s campaign has been quick to point out, polling of the Presidential race is a dead heat in NY-19, providing good reason to believe that this race has room to be tightened.

Several days before, Schreibman’s campaign emphasized an internal poll showing Gibson ahead by only 2 points. The fact that this poll did not release the details of its sample says a great deal.

Despite shifting slightly blue, there are two major indicators that Gibson fits the district’s unique interests well enough to make demographic shifts matter less than anticipated.

First, neither his personality, nor legislative emphasis in Congress have meshed well with Schreibman’s attempts to paint him as radical. Even retiring Democratic Congressman Maurice Hinchey disagrees with the image painted by DCCC attack ads. One DCCC ad has a particularly uncreative title.

Second- “Schreibman has always been running sideways,” looking to avoid providing a substantive platform and attempting to recast issues important to the Democratic base in poll-tested ways. In a local spin on this strategy, Schreibman has even tried to make an issue of Gibson’s early 2011 support for a local Nuclear Power plant. Who knew that topic was still on the table?

Contrast Schreibman’s campaign rhetoric with Gibson’s mid-September TV ad:

For more about Gibson-Schreibman, the Capitol Confidential Blog of the Times Union, an Albany area newspaper, has been providing unusually fair analysis of this race.

Although some local headlines have noted that Schreibman out-fundraised Gibson this month, Gibson’s early advantage still favors him in this race.

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Comments

Issob Morocco | October 23, 2012 at 1:23 pm

Thanks Prof. Jacobsen, for highlighting this race. I get to this district often on business and what was once a strong Dem political district (and hence economically stuggling one) is not open to Republican gains.

Nov. 6th!

Issob Morocco | October 23, 2012 at 1:23 pm

Oops sorry Prof. Jacobson!

It is easy to become cynical around elections. Often we vote for the lesser evil. This November 6th the fortunate citizens of the new 19th Congressional District have the distinct opportunity to vote for a man who has lived his life in a true, honest, and balanced manner: Chris Gibson. Congressman Chris Gibson. Dr. Chris Gibson. (Ret.) Colonel Chris Gibson. A man of valor; of integrity; of intelligence. The man who served 24 years for his country in 7 overseas tours, 4 of them in Iraq. The man who commanded the 82nd Airborne as they served the ravished people of Haiti after the disastrous earthquake. The man who received his PhD in government from Cornell University, and taught at West Point. The man who lives, with his lovely wife and 3 children, in Kinderhook, around the block from where he grew up, and where his mother still lives. This is a man of great wisdom, but greater sensitivities. Cong. Chris Gibson is a moderate who cares deeply about the future of our children and hosted job fairs connecting businesses with job seekers. He cares deeply about our seniors which is why he worked with both Democrats & Republicans to find creative measures to protect Medicare, increase energy independence, lower gas prices and invest in infrastructure. A man who cares about our health and has made better diagnosis, treatment and coverage a priority in dealing with a scourge of our area- Lyme Disease. He is knowledgeable about the needs farmers face, the lack of technology many in our area confront, and cares little about labels or tags. He sees problems, incorporates wise ideas, and brings people together to build consensus.

Don’t be fooled by his opponent’s measly attempts to paint him wrongly. His opponent has nothing to run on other than empty words. His opponent, Julian Schreibman, is a failed party chair who lost his party’s majority in the Ulster County legislature. He divided his party and ultimately lost many competitive races. He has no positive record and little to be proud of, thusly he is running a negative campaign. But we, the people, know better. Please join the good folks of all ages, professions, ideas and backgrounds and re-elect Congressman Chris Gibson. Thank you,

operation counterweight looking more and more like a huge flop, especially on the senate races. can you say mourdock? flake in the fight of his life against cardona in arizona.

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