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Three-way tie

Three-way tie

Cain-Newt-Romney all tied up, per latest CBS poll, with Cain at 18, and Newt/Romney at 15:

In the Republican race for the presidential nomination, Newt Gingrich’s support continues to slowly grow, and he is now tied with Mitt Romney for second place, while Herman Cain just edges both of them out for the top spot. Both Cain and Romney have lost support since late October.

In a new CBS News Poll, 61 percent of Republican primary voters say the sexual harassment accusations against Cain won’t make any difference in their vote, but 30 percent say the charges make them less likely to back him, and that
rises to 38 percent among women. Cain has lost support among women since last month – from 28 percent in October to 15 percent now. He has lost ground with conservatives and Tea Party supporters as well.

But the race could still change; seven in 10 Republican primary voters say it is still too early to say for sure which candidate they will support.

Of course, if you’ve been following this blog, you’ve heard (to the chagrin of some of you) of Newt’s rise for almost two months now.  This is another of the reasons why he is resonating with the electorate desperate for a not-Romney who has the complete package of experience, conservative credentials, and delivery, and that word I hate, “gravitas”:

A woman in the Frank Luntz focus group after the CNBC debate Wednesday said (at 3.24) “I want him to take on President Obama just like he took on the media.”

No one else yet has shown that ability so far.

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Comments

[…] Jacobson over at Legal Insurrection has a great explanation as to why Newt is on the rise. A woman in the Frank Luntz focus group after the CNBC debate Wednesday said (at 3.24) ”I want […]

“”I want him to take on President Obama just like he took on the media.””

Yep, that statement is the main reason I would back Newt over Romney — although if polls show me Romney is able to beat Barry more especially in swong states, then I’ll back Romney. Cain is out of the picture, he probably may be innocent, but at this point, too many unknowns, too much background noise, when the full attention has to be on Barry.

And for me to even consider saying I would vote for newt is a major thing, I was a Clinton voter in the 90s and I could not stand Newt. My, how times have changed.

What I find stunning on many right leaning blogs is many people say they would stay home if Romney is the repub nominee, so in my humble opinion, its not only Obama supporters that are the problem, so are the rigid right. Romney is a billion times better than Obama, if he’s the nominee, heck yea I’ll vote, campaign for him. Do the people who say they will stay home if Romney is the nominee realise there are supreme court nominations at stake, there are pieces of legislation — like a repeal of ObamaCare — which with Romney at least that can be signed, do they think Barry Soetero would sign that?

    Malonth in reply to alex. | November 11, 2011 at 10:50 am

    If, Dear God forbid, Romney is the nominee, he will tack, no strike that, he will bolt to the center/left to, in his view, shore up his status with the independents. Romney’s post-convention pivot to pure RINO will happen as surely as the sun rises in the morning.

    Then, with sickening flash backs to ’08, it will be Obama v. RINO. Contrary to Reagan’s lessons and advice, Romney will be the pale pastel candidate. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OznoFCZdS8
    Romney will try to be all things to all people. No doubt he will issue tepid statements about gay marriage and abortion. Romney has also foreshadowed that he will join Obama’s class warfare demagoguery.

    Is this the formula to beating Obama? Do we try to blur our differences with Obama and count on Romney picking up the win solely by being not Obama.

    To those of you who so glibly assure us that Romney is “the most electable” because he’s a RINO and won’t scare middle America, is this not just a redo of what was tried in ’08?

      Well, speaking as an Independent, I find Romney electable. I would vote for Newt over Romney, however if I find enough polling from many different sources that Romney is beating Barry Soetero in the swing state, and yes I would vote for Romney over Newt.

      And while in 2008 I was still a registered dem, I did not follow any of the repub primaries, I do remember one debate where Mccain made some comment to Romney, and Romney had this vacant look on his face, much worse than what Perry did with his not remembering which depts to eliminate.

      Romney has improved tremendously since 2008, must have been practicing a lot.

      There were millions of repubs who voted for Barry in 2008, in 2012, it really would be a sight to see that if Romney is the nominee, how many repubs would stay home, while Independents will vote for Romney, and they very well may for Newt as well. However those who staunchly say they will not vote for Romney in the general, if he is the nominee, will be just as much to blame as those people who vote for Barry, imho, if Barry is relected.

      JayDick in reply to Malonth. | November 11, 2011 at 1:58 pm

      I like Newt better, but I don’t have the dim view of Romney that you do. Would he do what he thinks it will take to win? Absolutely, but I think he has a pretty good feel for what that is and it’s not what you describe. Moreover, winning is the most important thing the Republican nominee can do.

1. I did not take Newt seriously when he announced, but he is compelling my attention. Nevertheless, there is something unlikable about the man. I can imagine Gingrich defeating Obama in every debate and losing the election. (To a lesser degree, the same may hold for Romney.)

2. Speaking of the election, Obama’s Intrade probability has crept up from 46% to 52% over the last month. Regardless of their merits, the attacks on Herman Cain may be distracting the public from Obama’s deficiencies. Is the GOP aware of this? Do they have a plan to counteract it?

Newt has matured and I’m taking a much less dismissive look at him. If he’s the nominee, then he has my 100% support. Heck, my neighbor’s birch tree has my 100% support if it’s nominated against Obama.

At this point I have a more favorable opinion of Newt than I ever did for McCain. McCain was the media’s choice. ’08 was the non-election, chosen, executed, and elected by the MSM. I despise McCain and only voted for him with two hopes: Obama would lose or Palin would get to invoke Section 1 of the 25th amendment.

Newt exudes the persona of the statesman in this bunch. His grasp of issues and his ability at intelligent and succinct messaging is impressive. He has a troubled past to deal with to gain Tea Party support (and other conservatives).

I think one of the major challenges is that he has to figure out how to communicate to the common voter, especially the swing voter. I’ve said many times that Newt is ridiculously brilliant, and he is. The problem with that is that he has a tendency to talk over people’s heads. What he says is spot on and easy to grasp for the political junkies and intelligent people. He has to simplify the message without diluting it.

Enter Cain. Cain speaks and it resonates with people. As corny as it sounds, his story is compelling, and people identify with it and with him. He exemplifies what most Americans have tried to do in life: study hard, go to college, work hard, keep your nose clean, and reap the success and reward that comes with that. Cain would be a formidable third-party candidate.

I’m not sure of the success of a Newt-Cain or Cain-Newt ticket would be. What I think would be successful is either a more down-to-earth Newt or a more erudite Cain.

He’s not saying anything “amazing,” but he is saying what needs to be said and its resonating.

Let’s not forget the real problem with Newt: He can’t manage a team. Tom Delay once said that working for Newt was tremendously frustrating. That in the morning the leadership team would meet and agree on their messaging for the day. Then around noon, the press would ask about something no one on the team had ever heard of and had no idea how to respond to, because Newt had already gone off the reservation and was saying something totally new and different from what was planned a few hours ago.

Toward the end of his term as speaker there was an attempted Conservative coup against Newt, largely because he was seen as being too friendly to the other side. He was far more ruthless in putting down this dissent than he ever was in dealing with the Democrats.

And finally, at the beginning of his presidential campaign this year, his entire staff resigned.

Newt talks a good game but that’s all he has going for him. He has failed repeatedly as a leader. I would actually rather have Romney – and I can’t stand Romney!

    JayDick in reply to irv. | November 11, 2011 at 2:02 pm

    Do you think Romney has a better chance of winning against Obama? I’m for the person who has the best chance of winning and I don’t know who that is right now. I do think that Newt is the best debater of the group and that will be very important in the election, if Obama would agree to debate him. If I were Obama, I wouldn’t.

Er…. Cain is leading in the polls. Is he the new 13th floor in the hotel or something? This thread offers ample evidence for why the GOP is so liberal. “Conservatives” may talk as if they are conservative but they vote liberal.

Let go of your noses. Cain is for real.

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