Depending on poll, the Virginia Governors race either is close or a Terry McAuliffe runaway victory. None of the polls show Ken Cuccinelli ahead.
But several of the recent polls show low single digit margins. Via RCP:
From a distance it certainly seems that Cuccinelli has run a weak campaign, and the third-party libertarian candidate could be the difference. That’s one of the reasons both Ron and Rand Paul are campaigning for Cuccinelli.
So come on Virginia Republicans, GOTV. Carry people to the polls, if need be.
Is Virginia really going to elect Terry “Clinton money-bagger, sleazy-politicoid insider” McAuliffe the Governor of the Commonwealth?
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If its within a point, its a given the Dems will steal the election. JFK in Illinois, Al Franken in Minnesota, Dannel Malloy in Connecticut.
Neither Congressman James Moran (D-VA) nor his son are presently in jail, either.
“When Democrats are allowed to vote as much as they want to, Democrats win!” Debby Wasserman Schulz (D-FL)
All of my family in VA will be voting for Ken Cuccinelli.
You know the dems will try to have their long deceased voters chipping in for win. The dems will also be carrying whomever and whatever they can to the polls that’s alive as well.
I just hope Virginia has had the foresight to clean up the voter registration rolls prior to this election.
Sleazy is right. If Virginians want a governor who makes money betting on when terminally ill people will die, he’s your man.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/in-annuity-deal-tied-to-mcauliffe-2-investors-knew-they-bet-on-specific-dying-people/2013/10/26/11456c1c-3c4b-11e3-b6a9-da62c264f40e_story.html
1. Is VA really going to elect Terry “Clinton money-bagger, sleazy-politicoid insider” McAuliffe?
It’s entirely possible, given that the state elected (and, worse, reelected!) Obama, sleazy politico par excellence.
2. The limited information I’ve gotten about Cuccinelli has not given me a good impression. Nevertheless, maybe it’s time to recycle a slogan from 1990s Louisiana:
Vote for the
crookschnook. It’s important.Sadly, not much question about it.
He could be the poster-boy for money-bagging, sleazy, politicoid-insiders and will be carried to victory by the suburban DC JV money-bagging, sleazy, politicoid-insiders and a few others in the state who owe their livlihood to the Beltway.
It has become our culture. I doubt anything except term limits can stop it. And that’s not likely to happen.
It’s a fluid situation heading into the final weekend. Some polls say Sarvis pulls slightly more support from Mculiffe than Cuccinelli, but Sarvis’ support is very soft, with one poll showing that 40% of his support could change their minds before the election. Here is where it gets interesting. The more media attention Sarvis gets the less Libertarian he looks, while Cuccinelli has many libertarian positions on economic issues. The libertines won’t mind that Sarvis’s ecomic positions lean statist for all they really care about is legal pot and abortion on demand. The classic Libertarians will mind very much.
The other wildcard is all the bad news about Obama that has hit in the media in the last few days. Cuccinelli has been hammering on his own opposition to Obamacare of late. While Obama’s campaigning for McAuliffe this weekend might help generate turnout among black voters the independents have cooled dramatically and Obama remains close to kryptonite to the many Democrats in Virginia’s coal country.
Unfortunately Northern Virginia with the large government workers/contractor population has become a large Democratic voting area, in particular the Arlington/Alexandria/Fairfax area
This is what happens when the party runs an absolute loser like Cuccinelli. McAuliffe is a bad character, we all know that, but his opponent is just downright creepy and worse on so many levels.
The Libertarian Party motto: “Electing Democrats since 1976.”
Ignore the polls…
The EVER PRESENT, ALWAYS RELIABLE d-cRAT VOTING FRAUD (ILLEGALS, DEAD PEOPLE, BLACKS VOTING MULTIPLE TIMES, etc., etc., ) should easily make up for any deficiencies amongst legal voting citizens.
If you want to help Cuccinelli and have a few bucks to spare, then donate at “Conservative Campaign Committee” website to help pay to run TV ad spots for Cuccinelli over the weekend during the NFL games. They endorsed Cuccinelli early on and are trying to give him a surge with the final weekend ads.
Perhaps it is time to create the 51st state of South Virginia. In the alternative maybe residents of Virginia should reverse the Retrocession and thus return the 31 square miles that is the city Alexandria and Arlington County Virginia md thus restore the District of Columbia to the size it was from 1791 to 1847.
I ask because the Emerson Poll broke down results by congressional district. Almost all of McCuliffe’s statewide edge is actually attributable to a 75-13 edge in a single Congressional district- the 8th, which is a huge chunk of suburban DC. McAuliffe leads in only two other Congressional districts – 11, and 10, which also contain parts of suburban DC.
Cuccinelli leads in the other eight Congressional districts.
.
That sounds about right. If you gave all of Virginia that’s contained inside the Capital Beltway to DC (or to Maryland), Virginia would be not just red but crimson on any political map.
Southern Virginia can be the 52nd state, right after Western Maryland becomes the 51st. We have to get away from the nuts in Baltimore, Montgomery County and Annapolis!
I live in northern virginia, surrounded by federal employees.
I never imagined VA would go for Obama, but it did. The second time around I though Romney would take the state by at least 5, but then Obama won it again.
We have 2 Democrat Senators.
McCarpetbagger outspent Cucinelli and, like most Dems, was campaigning and advertising effectively for MONTHS before Cucinelli’s campaign got started. That built up the huge lead early on and defined the race, and the candidates. R’s have got to do better about this or we’re done. Even now the D’s continue to outspend the R’s by 2 or possibly 3:1.
If the R’s knew what they were doing, they’d have focused on McAuliffe’s gun control agenda (hugely unpopular here) or his support for the EPA’s war on coal (we get the majority of our electricy from coal and the SW of the state’s economy depends on coal production). Yet neither of these have gotten much play at all. Rather, its been mostly about the two candidates trying to define the other as the more ‘corrupt’. Also, the D’s have effectively played the Abortion Card, again.
What’s really narrowing the race? Obamacare. Seriously. If the Obamacare launch had happened on Nov 15th rather than Oct 1 McAuliffe would win by >10 points.
My main concern now is the Libertarians. Their candidate has been polling as high as 10%. What will they do on election day? If they vote Libertarian or stay home, McAuliffe wins. What’s really sad, aside from the obvious, is that the Libertarian candidate is provably further Left than the R candidate on most of the issues Libertarians care about most.
There is a clear pattern of over-polling LP support in Virginia, but it is not so clear what happens to the vanished support on Election Day. Somewhat more typically goes to Republicans historically, but it’s not a lock and not by a huge margin.
The shutdown theater seriously damaged Cooch’s chances, hurting the brand for three weeks while simultaneously taking the spotlight off Obama’s serial incompetence, which was on the verge of cascading had it been left alone.
His main hope now is that while Obama’s machine inspired 70% turnout last year with record minority turnout, the last gubernatorial election (VA elects in odd years following the presidential election) only drew 40% turnout. With that level, Republicans still have a chance.
“Libertarian” candidate Sarvis seems like a phony. He’s a “social liberal” but read the linked NRO profile and he sounds like a progressive!
Maybe he’s a plant financed by the McAulliffe coven to insure the election point spread?
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/362690/sarvis-libertarian-nope-charles-c-w-cooke/page/0/1
I’m as conservative as they come and I think the government should stay out of the who can marry whom business, the determination of what is living and what is non-living business, and that tobacco should not be given special legal treatment over marijuana…legalized marijuana would piss off drug dealers more than anyone because they have a choice to either go legit and pay taxes like everyone else or quit.
No, you’re not “as conservative as they come.”
Looks like “Old Dominion” has become “New Statism.”
The fix has been in for McAuliffe from the beginning; the only difference is now with the Obamacare roll out debacle they aren’t going to be able to steal it by as large a margin as they thought; now they are preparing for the same kind of 100,000 vote margin “win” for McAuliffe as Obama “won” in 2012.
What a silly question, Prof. These are Democrats we’re talking about here. Lies, deceit, corruption – that’s all part of “winning” in politics. The goal apparently is not just to promise a chicken in every pot, but to promise the biggest chicken.
If the WaPo’s Dana Milbank is to be believed, the Democrats did not expect to win this race. Milbank claims that Cuccinelli’s supporters got the Virginia GOP to scrap the state’s primary, in which Cuccinelli’s opponent was supposedly favored, in favor of a nominating convention in which Tea Partiers had the edge.
However, Milbank fails to point out that the VA GOP scrapped the state’s open primary, in which nonRepublicans could vote. He does not discuss the scenario in which the open primary would have been replaced by a closed, Republicans-only primary.
Afaic the omission is crucial.