Kimball Political Consulting, a Republican leaning firm but one which has not been overly generous in its results for Scott Brown to date (it had Warren up 2 in mid-October), finds Brown up by 2 in a poll just released:
Senator Scott Brown holds a 2 point advantage of Elizabeth Warren, according to a new Kimball Political Consulting poll. The survey stands in contrast to this week’s Suffolk University poll showing Warren holding a 7 point lead but mirrors the results of a Boston Globe poll from last weekend.
Brown captures 49% of the vote with Warren at 47% of “likely” voters. Kimball has done a series of tracking polls on this race since August with Warren taking her first lead (48% to 46%) in mid-October.
The Pollster, Spencer Kimball, believes the sleeper effect, which is when voters forget the messenger and remember the message, is what has turned things around for Brown. The theory suggests that Brown’s blistering attacks on Warren’s heritage and her legal representation took time to create the intended effect but voters may now be showing doubt about the Democrat nominee. Warren’s unfavorable opinion has risen to 45%.
In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 4 to 1 it appears Brown’s strategy to use high profile Democrat endorsements has worked, with Brown taking 21% of the Democrat vote. Brown is also able to capture 61% of the Independent vote to Warren’s 34%.
The full results and data are made available by Kimball here (large pdf. file).
Update: PPP released a poll after Kimball showing Warren up six. The details are not posted in full yet, but if it’s like prior PPP polls in Mass, it overweights Dems.
The polls are all over the place, with Kimball and The Boston Globe (UNH Polling) showing Brown up 2, PPP, Suffolk and Rasmussen showing Warren up 5-6. Read the Kimball analysis, it’s pretty persuasive that much of the public polling is missing what’s happening, but we’ll find out who’s right soon enough.