Kimball Political Consulting, a Republican leaning firm but one which has not been overly generous in its results for Scott Brown to date (it had Warren up 2 in mid-October), finds Brown up by 2 in a poll just released:
Senator Scott Brown holds a 2 point advantage of Elizabeth Warren, according to a new Kimball Political Consulting poll. The survey stands in contrast to this week’s Suffolk University poll showing Warren holding a 7 point lead but mirrors the results of a Boston Globe poll from last weekend.
Brown captures 49% of the vote with Warren at 47% of “likely” voters. Kimball has done a series of tracking polls on this race since August with Warren taking her first lead (48% to 46%) in mid-October.
The Pollster, Spencer Kimball, believes the sleeper effect, which is when voters forget the messenger and remember the message, is what has turned things around for Brown. The theory suggests that Brown’s blistering attacks on Warren’s heritage and her legal representation took time to create the intended effect but voters may now be showing doubt about the Democrat nominee. Warren’s unfavorable opinion has risen to 45%.
In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 4 to 1 it appears Brown’s strategy to use high profile Democrat endorsements has worked, with Brown taking 21% of the Democrat vote. Brown is also able to capture 61% of the Independent vote to Warren’s 34%.
The full results and data are made available by Kimball here (large pdf. file).
Update: PPP released a poll after Kimball showing Warren up six. The details are not posted in full yet, but if it’s like prior PPP polls in Mass, it overweights Dems.
The polls are all over the place, with Kimball and The Boston Globe (UNH Polling) showing Brown up 2, PPP, Suffolk and Rasmussen showing Warren up 5-6. Read the Kimball analysis, it’s pretty persuasive that much of the public polling is missing what’s happening, but we’ll find out who’s right soon enough.
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Comments
Legal Insurrection can take full credit for Brown’s doubling of Warren’s independent supporters (61/34). That’s why he’s up 2.
Great work.
Don’t get cocky, kids.
The only poll that really counts is the one next Tuesday at the ballot box.
Whether Brown wins or loses on Tuesday, LI’s investigative reporting on Warren’s total unsuitability for office has been huge, and also provides her opposition a starting point in any future election she may enter.
Nobody’s getting cocky. The notion never crossed my mind and, with respect, I don’t see why it entered yours.
Brown remains below 50%. His lead is within the poll’s margin of error, and it is not too far from MA’s margin of theft.
Nevertheless, the poll is encouraging given the Left’s emphasis on this race. They’re going all out not just to recover Kennedy’s former seat, but to position a radical candidate for the Presidency.
I’ve expressed serious concerns about Brown’s strategy, but wisdom is justified by her children.
On Tuesday you posted that the Brown campaign was behaving like he was ahead and the Warren campaign, like she was behind. Looks like you were on to something.
Feels like the last segment of Star Wars (Ep 4). Rebel fighters going down the Death Star trench.
Almost there….almost there….almost there…….
I always thought Scott Brown’s election was a fluke. Had it not been a special election, had Legal Insurrection and the Tea Party not supported him with their time and money, had the majority of the country not wanted to prevent Obamacare from becoming law, and had Martha Coakley been a stronger candidate, I don’t think Scott Brown would have won.
Then when he did win, I thought the special circumstances present for his initial election would no longer be present when he sought re-election and he’d lose because Democrats have such a huge advantage in the state. To win this time Brown MUST persuade 1 in 5 Democrats who are almost surely going to vote for Obama to cross party lines and vote for him. That’s an enormous lift. But according to this poll, that’s what he’s doing. Pretty amazing.
There were a couple of political strategists on NPR this morning. The Democratic guy said Warren will win on Obama’s coattails in MA. While there’s little doubt Obama will easily win MA, there are a lot of Democrats who will be voting for Romney. This afternoon Obama/Warren supporters were on one corner holding signs and Romney/Brown folks on the opposite side. Lots of honking for Brown. Not much for Warren. I think she might not have as easy a ride as she thinks.
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[…] Brown Up Two In Mass? That Would Be Nice Posted on November 3, 2012 3:30 pm by Bill Quick » Scott Brown up 2 in new poll – Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion […]