Newly released data from the weekly Battleground Poll sponsored by Politico and George Washington University has come up with an interesting set of numbers this week.
The first part of the data taken in represents a poll of likely voters from last week. Here, Obama has a narrow lead over Romney, 49-48. This lead, however, is well within the 3.1% statistical margin of error for the poll.
Yet, standing in direct contrast to the weekly poll, a new Politico affiliated election day projection model is predicting Romney will win the general election 52-47, according to the Weekly Standard.
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.
While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.
Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate. His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”
Even more encouraging for Romney are the internals of the Battleground poll (complete poll results can be found here).
Taken last week, the poll found that only 37 percent of voters believe the country is headed in the right direction. For an incumbent president to win reelection, that number normally must exceed 40 percent. “Everyone but the core Democratic constituencies holds the strongly held feeling that the country is off on the wrong track,” Goeas said.
For the first time this year, Romney has a majority favorable image. His favorability rating is 52 percent, Obama’s is 51 percent. According to the poll, Romney is viewed favorably by a majority of independents (59 percent), seniors (57), married voters (61), moms (56), college graduates (54), middle class voters (56), and middle class families (61).
This is a very interesting set of data for both campaigns. For all intents and purposes, the race for President is in a dead heat. But with these two studies taken together, there’s some light at the end of the tunnel for Romney.
Whatever the case, I can say one thing with confidence.