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Politico polls and projections see two different futures for Obama

Politico polls and projections see two different futures for Obama

Newly released data from the weekly Battleground Poll sponsored by Politico and George Washington University has come up with an interesting set of numbers this week.

The first part of the data taken in represents a poll of likely voters from last week. Here, Obama has a narrow lead over Romney, 49-48. This lead, however, is well within the 3.1% statistical margin of error for the poll.

Yet, standing in direct contrast to the weekly poll, a new Politico affiliated election day projection model is predicting Romney will win the general election 52-47, according to the Weekly Standard.

The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.

While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.

Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate. His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”

Even more encouraging for Romney are the internals of the Battleground poll (complete poll results can be found here).

Taken last week, the poll found that only 37 percent of voters believe the country is headed in the right direction. For an incumbent president to win reelection, that number normally must exceed 40 percent. “Everyone but the core Democratic constituencies holds the strongly held feeling that the country is off on the wrong track,” Goeas said.

For the first time this year, Romney has a majority favorable image. His favorability rating is 52 percent, Obama’s is 51 percent. According to the poll, Romney is viewed favorably by a majority of independents (59 percent), seniors (57), married voters (61), moms (56), college graduates (54), middle class voters (56), and middle class families (61).

This is a very interesting set of data for both campaigns. For all intents and purposes, the race for President is in a dead heat. But with these two studies taken together, there’s some light at the end of the tunnel for Romney.

Whatever the case, I can say one thing with confidence.

Go. Vote.

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Comments

Sometimes I get so confused. If I trust the polls that Romney is going to win, then I think the country is headed in the right direction which supposedly means Obama is more likely to win. But, if I think Obama is going to win, then I’m convinced
the country is headed in the wrong direction which means that Romney is more likely to win. Oooo, my aching head.

As someone keeps reminding us: Don’t get cocky kid!

Which means, continuing to seek the truth on Fast and Furious and Benghazi.

Continuing to support GOP Senators, especially Scott Brown.

And helping Romney win Ohio, Wisconsin and other battlground states.

I can’t help thinking … do we really want three Democratic ex-presidents in Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama as ubiquitous, unelected loose canons wandering the globe giving speeches and publicly second-guessing the Republican president?

Ugh.

    Ragspierre in reply to LukeHandCool. | October 29, 2012 at 10:50 am

    Unequivocally, YES! Better out of office and power, if we can’t have them in jail.

    I DO want Holder’s hide hanging on a wall somewhere, but HE MUST BE REMOVED ASAP. Ditto Jackson at EPA.

    radiofreeca in reply to LukeHandCool. | October 29, 2012 at 11:29 am

    LukeHandCool – Better the ‘3 apologists’ going around the planet dissing the country on THEIR dime, than on OUR dime.

    Juba Doobai! in reply to LukeHandCool. | October 29, 2012 at 12:06 pm

    They are all totally déclassé and will stick their yaps in unneeded because their adoring sycophants in the LSM will solicit their useless opinion, and they will be crass enough to supply it.

    Obama is rushing to act presidential with Sandy. Where was he with the recent flooding in other states the governors of which solicited his assistance via the disaster area tag? He blew them off cuz they were perceived as GOP states. This week, the states threatened are blue, so Obama is attentive, plus he wants to play president leader.

[…] On the Horizon for Romney? Posted on October 29, 2012 7:39 am by Bill Quick » Politico polls and projections see two different futures for Obama – Le·gal In·sur·rec·… The first part of the data taken in represents a poll of likely voters from last week. Here, Obama […]

I have already have voted, and would vote again if it was not illegal. My early voting poll in Texas has seen STEADY traffic.

Go team, Rah

Screw the polls!! They’ll make you nuts! Put your head down & do what you know needs done.

DINORightMarie | October 29, 2012 at 11:19 am

For the first time this year, Romney has a majority favorable image. His [Romney’s] favorability rating is 52 percent, Obama’s is 51 percent.

(my emphasis and [] notes)

Ummmmm……103%?! Yes, math is hard. For some. Like Obama. And his Politico buddies.

Not a trustworthy poll, on multiple levels.

MaggotAtBroadAndWall | October 29, 2012 at 11:47 am

Don’t let up. As Prof J says, play through the finish. Urge all your friends and family to vote Romney and GOP senate so we can repeal Obamacare. The choice is between freedom/renewed prosperity and bureaucratic control and decline. With a sufficintly informed electorate the election would not even be close. But it is.

Let’s get this done.

I stood in line for over 2 hours to get in the Romney rally in Pensacola, FL on Saturday (Oct 27). As a bonus, Marco Rubio and Connie Mack were there. Many did not get in.

Afterwards, I stood in line for over an hour to cast my early votes. Usually, it’s in and out in 10 or 15 minutes at this polling place.

Twas a great day. The crowds were all chomping at the bit to get rid of Obama and elect Romney.

[…] Politico has some good news for Obama – not really. There’s some good news from the Politico Battleground poll but there’s really really bad news from the Politico Battleground poll: “New Projection of Election Results: Romney 52, Obama 47 […]

I voted this afternoon at our Winter Park(Fl.)Public Library. Damn, it felt good to dimple chads for Mitt & Paul. Long line of well behaved, prosperous(middle & upper middle class)folks and kind of an ‘energized vibe’. Nice.

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