In the deep blue bubble
It’s very difficult in Ithaca or Rhode Island to get a sense of how the presidential contest is playing out.
Because both New York and Rhode Island are sure winners for Obama, there is virtually no advertising on television in these markets for the presidential race. In Ithaca, which draws on the Syracuse and Binghamton television stations, there are plenty of ads for Republican congressional candidates, and few for Democrats; so at least that is good to see.
If all you heard were the local news stations, which regurgitate the national broadcast networks, you’d think Romney wasn’t even running in the race, except when he does something supposedly wrong. And polls writing Romney’s chances off are recited in 1-3 sentences, and then on to local news.
Let’s face it, if you get alot of your news from Memeorandum or similar internet news aggregators, you’d get the same feeling. My home page is Google News, and the front page stories linked almost always are from the mainstream media and are negative to Romney’s chances or portraying him in a bad light.
One has the sense sitting here that there isn’t even a campaign, much less a contest.
But this is a bubble. Can it be that in swing states the Romney campaign and supporting SuperPACs are as silent as it seems?
The mainstream media in many ways is in the same bubble I am in, located in deep blue cities and states which are not really contested, so they impart the same feeling I get in Ithaca.
I welcome feedback from readers.
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Comments
I have been phone banking through the “at home” system the Romney website has set up. I’ve been assigned to call New Hampshire & I cannot believe the sheer amount of people who (1) do not answer their phones and (2) hang up once I introduce myself with the script “Hi my name is Angie and I’m calling with a short survey about the presidential election. Do you have a moment to answer a few questions?” Yesterday, for example,I called for 2 hours mid-afternoon NH time and in all that time only 20 people actually answered their phone (out of at least 100 calls); of those 20, 15 either hung up or told me “Sorry, no. I don’t have time.” So I got 5 answers — 3 Obama; 2 Romney. I’ve phone banked in several elections before & I’ve never encountered this. I understand Caller ID is a big reason for not answering, but all the hang ups & refusals to answer are really weird compared to my prior experience with actual person calling (Being Southern, I’m very polite on these calls — in fact, one of the Romney voters who actually answered only did so after he remarked how polite I was & changed his mind about answering the survey — initially he told me he didn’t have time to do so). I have no idea how to gauge anything, but I certainly have more sympathy for the pollsters — they are just going with whatever & whoever they can “get” to answer them.
I just finished reading a Michael Barone column citing a Pew statistic that only 9% of those reached by pollsters agree to respond. He says the same statistic was 36% back in 1997. He thinks it may be due to poll fatigue. Years ago pollsters polled in person. Then as landline phones became ubiquitous, they used live people to dial up people. Now many of them use a machine to robo-dial and record responses. The result is there are far more polling outfits today conducting far more polls than ever before.
When I answer the phone and I realize it’s a machine on the other end, I hang up immediately. I resent that someone has programmed a machine to intrude on my precious free time FOR THEIR BENEFIT and I get absolutely nothing out of it. Screw that.
Hi neighbor! I’m in WNC myself and the wife an I have caller ID and NEVER answer political calls. We’ll be voting a straight Republican ticket, though.
Hi, all WNCers,
I’m from Texas, but here in WNC until just before the election. All of a sudden, today, I saw TONS of Romney/Ryan signs (new ones, red background, VERY good looking and eye catching) around Cashiers, Etowah, Brevard, ASHEVILLE (who knew?) and Hendersonville. Lots of McCrory signs too. The signs were both along the highways and in front of private residences- it was encouraging.
With all of the lies that Obama, his sycophants and the media are spreading about Romney, you would think that Obama would be ahead by 20 points, yet it is a close race.
I personally believe that most independents are sick of Obama’s lies and failed policies, yet they do not want to be branded as “racist” if they say that they support Romney/Ryan.
We shall see.
anyone would be even in the poles…if the MSM were to schill for them as they do for Obama.
Denver Post had same chart filled with distortions about Romney’s economic plan vs. Obamas. Everyone knows The Denver Post is a pro-democrat newspaper. So not a big surprise.
Rural eastern NC is historically Democrat by a nose and a half, but not anymore. Since 2010 it is GOP +5 or so. Most interestingly, our Tea Party numbers lady says our group’s 2500+ membership is about 10% black.
RE: The Air War. The Obama team has found it necessary to spend every dollar and then some, running a deficit (big surprise there, eh?), just to keep even with Romney, whose team has been more circumspect in its TV ad expenditures. I believe they intend a massive ad blitz for the final three weeks, say Oct 15th on, because the Obama team, having blown its wad, won’t be able to match it and won’t have the time to counter it.
RE: Polls. That polling is highly questionable has always been the case, otherwise terms like ‘outlier’ wouldn’t be necessary, nor would it be necessary to collect and average out polls, as does RCP if they were inherently accurate. The accuracy of polls may only be determined after the fact, which defeats their predictive purpose. I don’t care if the polls have Romney down ten or up twenty, they are unreliable, this cycle more than ever. However, even if polls are inherently inaccurate, two historical near-absolutes are extant:
1) Incumbents who cannot maintain at least 50% in the polls almost always lose (true whether after-the-fact scoring shows the polling to have been accurate or not). Obama hasn’t gotten close to 50% in national polls. For anyone currently undecided, what could cause them to choose Obama now? The undecideds are rejecting Obama and checking out Romney, that is, if they aren’t supporting Obama at this late date, they aren’t really undecided at all. 75% or so of undecideds eventually break for the challenger, usually within a week of the election. So, if a current poll says Obama 47%, Romney 44%, 7% undecided, Romney wins 51-52% to 48-49%. (Assuming an accurate poll, of course).
B) Whenever polling shows that more than 50% of voters feel the country is going in the wrong direction, the incumbent loses. That number, depending on the pollster, currently runs between 60-72% who believe the country is on the wrong track. Why would they vote to keep the status quo?
-I’m seeing Romney 52-56% winning over Obama at 44-48%.
-I’m seeing an unusually high incidence of straight ticket voting, in favor of the GOP. Coattails!
-I’m seeing at least a 50/50 split in the US Senate, and a likely GOP takeover.
-I’m seeing the GOP easily maintaining their current House majority.
-I’m seeing a continuance of the 2010 wave at the state level, with considerable GOP gains.
-I’m seeing a defeated and demoralized Democrat Party tossing out all the lefties who’ve taken it over since 2006, and a return to the center-left alignment of previous years.
-I’m seeing a 40 years in the desert future for the Democrat far left.
-I’m seeing a Cornell Associate Professor of Law offered the Romney administration Attorney General position.
-I’m seeing him graciously refuse the offer, electing instead to pursue a career in Hollywood as an action movie star.
Yes, I saw my math error, but it doesn’t change the outcome or point. I’m watching Cam Newton tear up the Falcons, got distracted.
“So, if a current poll says Obama 47%, Romney 44%, 7% undecided, Romney wins 51-52% to 48-49%. (Assuming an accurate poll, of course).”
Henry, ya lead-tongued lummox, why not just give them the simple formula?
Read a naional poll. Take the undecided number, multiply it by .75, and add it to Romney’s number. THAT’S the real number for Romney (again, assuming the poll numbers are accurate).
Here in south central Iowa, I hear a lot of radio commercials for Mitt Romney. I don’t think that I’ve heard one for Obama yet. One of the radio stations broadcasts ABC news at the top of every hour, and that’s what you’d expect; the local broadcasts don’t cover politics at all.
Professor, I know how you feel…I live in the Bezerkly hills.
Libs make going to a polling place in the blue bubble so uncomfortable that since 2004 I vote absentee.
In 2000 I walked to our neighborhood polling place, gave my name and address, however the woman on the desk couldn’t find my voter registration. She hadn’t asked my party affiliation..it was just assumed.
“I’m a Republican, you’re looking in the wrong book” I said.
Color drained from her face in surprise as she exclaimed at the top of her voice.
“She’s a Republican!11!!!”
All heads turned and someone on line actually gasped softly.
As I signed the book she handed me the ballot and announced “Your machine is over there” pointing to a single ballot reading machine standing on the other side of the room.
“Oh really, is that the machine that’s not counted? I replied.
You could have heard a pin drop. Asshats.
A friend of ours had a similar experience many years ago about as far away from Bez Hills as you can get. He worked for the same company my husband did and had transferred down from up north. Came primary voting day, he walked into a polling place in rural Arkansas and announced he wanted to vote in the Republican primary. According to him, everybody in the room gasped and took a step back away from him. Back then Republicans were lucky to field a few candidates in the general — I doubt they even dreamed of actually having a primary. But our friend is getting the last laugh. For the first time since Reconstruction it looks like all four of our Congressional seats will be held by Republicans, Obama is double digits down, Blanche Lincoln lost her Senate seat to a Republican last time around, most of our statewide offices were won by Republicans, and even our county, which has been Democratic, what is the phrase, since the memory of man runneth not to the contrary, threw all Democrats out who had an opponent, putting county government almost completely in the hands of Republicans or Independents. Between financial scandals, the misogyny of Obama and his cronies, and just the anger and fear people feel stemming from this government trying to micromanage (badly) every aspect of our lives, the Democrats have pissed off just about the entire state. So, hang in, it might even happen there someday.
Same thing happened here in NC after 2010, and we will complete the cycle by electing McCrory(R) for governor (even though he is suspiciously moderate to me).
William, I live in BLUE/BLUE Maryland…and I smell desperation in the Obama campaign. They’re advertising on TV AND Radio here…where Democrats outnumber GOP 3-1! Every 20 min or so there are commercials for the Obama campaign that try and hammer Romney.
Jews here (NW Baltimore/Pikesville) aren’t going to vote for Obama in lockstep this time around…they own businesses and are terrified of what the government (both Fed & State) are inflicting upon them, hence non-governmental highering is stagnant.
So, while I don’t think Romney will “take” Maryland, I suspect that it will be a lot closer than the last election was.
I’ve heard the same about Washington state, especially the very blue western side. Nonstop ads for Obama – what would be the point spending money there?
Obama is trying to drum up the base as much as possible. A sure sign of a losing campaign.
A confident campaign doesn’t spend money in safe areas…think about that…
Professor, up until a few years I resided in Cleveland of Cuyahoga County, Ohio in the heart of Democratic country. I watched the polls very closely during the 2004 Presidential Race between Bush and Kerry and remembering being dismayed about the results and thinking that Kerry was going to win up until the Friday before the election. That is when the Plain Dealer(PD) printed the current polls for the state of Ohio favoring Bush. ((As an aside, I can’t believe how long it has been since I read a real a printed paper.:) )) In the end we(Ohio) did go for Bush.
What I realize now is that the last poll that they published was dead on accurate because they wanted in retrospect to be able to say they were right in how they called it. Everything else was hog wash/disinformation to make themselves feel better.
I now live in a new uber liberal state and area. I don’t know what to make of this area is going to vote but being a Blue State they have one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation (not California or New York). Still I don’t see much enthusiasm for Obama in the form of bumper stickers or lawn signs.
I have felt that this election was going to follow the same mold of 2004 and the PD. Most voters are smarter than what the Democrats give them credit for and they will only believe the MSM and vote against their best interests if they haven’t thought about the past four years for at least 5 minutes.
That may well be what happens this time around…ROmney certainly isn’t acting like he’s behind. I suspect that internal poling is much, much closer.
Bill, The ads out here in Rapid City are predictably sparse. I will have to admit that we tape most all shows and FF through commercials; that, or we just “pause” and come back in an hour or so. I did see one obama ad on The Weather Channel one day and I think it was a Super PAC ad. It’s _deep_ Red out here, and only 3 electoral votes, so one wouldn’t expect any candidate to spend much money hereabouts. cheers, chuck
The comments on this thread have provided me with some optimism. The MSM, dems and polling psychops has been working on many conservative sites. It’s being drummed into people that it’s time to hang it up and accept the unacceptable.
But, like many of you have expressed, there is something so odd about the demeaner of this election. The anecdotal stories seem to say one thing, while the TV and print media seem to be espousing something completely different.
I live in a blue part of CA, where everyone is a liberal. It’s hard to get a grip on this election, from the people around me, as they are primarily all democrats. However, one thing I’ve noticed is that there is no where near the signage for Obama/Biden 2012 as there was in ’08. A few bumper stickers here and there are about it. I’m wondering if the democrats are investing less this year in that kind of advertising?
“But, like many of you have expressed, there is something so odd about the demeaner of this election. The anecdotal stories seem to say one thing, while the TV and print media seem to be espousing something completely different.”
The disconnect you are experiencing is the intended result of thirty years of political correctness. Since 2007 it has become a sign of Racism™ to disagree with then-candidate, now President Obama. It has long been supposed byh libs to be a sign of Racism™ to disagree with anything remotely race-related, like entitlements, affirmative action, illegals, etc. One learns to keep one’s feelings to one’s self, it’s just easier. We find the PC Police just about everywhere now – the media certainly, community organizations, college campuses, school boards, public agencies, etc., plus the media is using PC racethought to browbeat those who might not want to support Obama. We find the PC Police everywhere except *one* all-important place in particular – the voting booth. Heh, heh, heh.
You’re in California, PC Police Headquarters, and so you are enisled from middle American normalcy, but have faith. There are about 52-55% of the voting public out here preparing to endorse you and your non-PC nonsupport of Obama.
Many Missouri Catholics are angry.
-The Knights of Columbus are having a voter registration push.
-Some of us are fasting the 40 days before the election.
-Many long time proud and loud Dems are eerily quiet.
-In this solid blue county I have seen two Obama signs, only 2!
-I drive all over this county regularly, heck there are more Todd Akin signs up that Obama/Biden… no Romney Ryan signs yet…
we live in The Valley here in Lost Angels, and were over in the east end of it yesterday, running errands. we saw more than a few Romney stickers on cars, which is telling, since having something like that here is an open invitation to vandalism of you car, speaking from personal experience.
what is more telling is the dearth of Obanal stickers: in 08, they were all over, but now they are only slightly more common than Romney ones.
but, best of all, we were in a store, and we walked past a sub-genius wearing his Obama 08 t-shirt. i remarked to Resident Evil that his shirt might as well say “I’m Stupid” and homeslice exploded in anger, calling me a rightwing something or other as well as telling me to attempt an impossible physical act, etc… all in spluttering rage as he stormed out of the store.
this was not the response one would expect from a confident supporter of a leading candidate, but more the desperation of a true believer that senses his g*d has feet of clay and is about to become a footnote in history.
i doubt Falifornia will go red in November, but it might not be as blue as people are predicting. if the sheep here are looking up, the rest of the country should be as well.
as Patton said, do not take counsel of your fears.
located in the beachside area of S.Fla , only am seeing obama stickers on cars that also have that “one human family” sticker; only signs in our 200 single family home neighborhood are 5 Romney signs,in 2008 there was a huge obama sign on the main thorofare, it is not there yet. My parents and 4 out of 5 of my grown siblings and their kids are voting for obama again.My husband’s parents in NJ have agreed to vote for Romney; All my closest proximity neighbors are voting for obama again;Two weeks ago at the Catholic Church I attend and volunteer in had a register to vote table outside of the entrance; First time EVER! Priest spoke about the importance to vote.That means something! I believe it was a Miami archdiocese directive! I see a BLIZZARD landside !
That means something! I believe it was a Miami archdiocese directive! I see a BLIZZARD landside !
For who? Romney or Obama? With your neighbors and family voting for Obama, it was difficult to see where you were going with this comment.
Mr Jacobson,
To paraphrase H L Mencken:
No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of NY state voters.
Case in point: Kirsten Gillibrand.
1. Nary a presidential sign here in Central MA. Mostly Scott Brown, but not as many as I recall from last time. That will probably change as the election approaches.
2. Early on I gave Obama the edge, reckoning that unprincipled incumbency would narrowly compensate for his incompetence. I changed my attitude when the Romney campaign did things like the appearance near Solyndra. Now I’m back to my default estimate.
That said, the news has been manipulated to Obama’s advantage for some time. I don’t expect that to be possible for five more weeks. October surprises notwithstanding, Obama may have peaked too soon—and his peak is the peak of a house of cards fabricated by the media.
Romney should have at least one more period of momentum. I hope and expect to see that momentum but am sticking with my default estimate until I do.
Obama may have peaked too soon…
That’s a very interesting insight — never thought of the peaking factor.
Saw this in the comment section at…. Hot Air? Can’t remember now, but I lifted it. Politi-poetry ain’t my cup of bourbon, but plenty do enjoy this stuff:
‘Twas the night before elections,
And all thru’ the town,
Tempers were flaring
Emotions ran up and down.
I, in my bathrobe
With a cat in my lap,
Had shut off the TV,
tired of political crap.
When all of a sudden,
There arose such a noise,
I peered out my window,
Saw Obama and his boys.
They had come for my wallet,
They wanted my pay
To hand out to others
Who had not worked a day!
He snatched up my money,
And quick as a wink,
Jumped back on his bandwagon
As I gagged from the stink.
He then rallied his henchmen
Who were pulling his cart.
I could tell they were out
To tear my country apart!
‘On Fannie, on Freddie,
On Biden and Ayers!
On Acorn, on Pelosi’
He screamed at the pairs!
They took off for his cause,
And as they flew out of sight,
I heard him laugh at a nation
Who wouldn’t stand up and fight!
So I leave you to think
On this one final note.
IF YOU DON’T WANT SOCIALISM
GET OUT AND VOTE !!!!
Author unknown
I have not looked at all signs in my neighborhood, but so far there is a Romney/Ryan poster in one yard and a Kaine for Senate poster in another yard. Kaine is a democrat. On my block I know there are at least 3 Obama voters. I will probably vote for Romney. My husband will vote for Obama. He is one of the 3 Obama voters. My pro-life Catholic neighbors will vote ?. I haven’t asked them. I only know the opinions of people who have voluntarily stated their opinions. I live in Northern Virginia. Obama canvassers came by last Saturday.
I had to drive from NYC through Ohio last week twice, and it was really strange that there were no 0 bumper stickers either way or in NYC for that matter. I couldn’t get over it. There was 1 RR bumper sticker.
On another note, I have to drive in every day to a major University in a blue state in a hugely blue area and I cannot get over the fact that there are very few bumper stickers compared to 2008. Very notable in the area we are in. I am figuring that fewer will be voting this time as there are also no RR bumper stickers here. But in 2008, it was a veritable sea of 0 stickers, so it does seem odd.
I’m in the MN 6th, German Catholic country. Virtually all the signs are local and less so, state contests, none at all for O a small number for Romney, tho large.
The Dims fatted calf for the 6th, one Graves, hotelier, hired Greenberg(a very good D pollster) who called the contest tightening to 2 points.
Balderdash, last time out polling 8 ahead for months, Bachmann finshed 12 in front and reapportionment has made the district more conservative.
Not a lot of noise here, less, hard data, but I expect the margin statewide to be under 10,000 either way. Economy is Ok here but I’d give the edge to Romany. Too close for a professional to call.
I live in a swing state (NC) – and there have been plenty of tv ads by both parties (and by PACs for both).
In addition, one of the guys I follow on twitter comments regularly on the ad spending $ by each party in each of the swing states. NC usually runs around 5th or 6th on political ad spending (I’ll try to pay more attention next time he tweets this info). The swing states are getting a good dose of political ads. You can count on it! In addition, whenever a candidate/surrogate visits in the area that is covered in the local news, on top of whatever is in the national news. Politics has been steadily covered on tv news for months now around here. It must be strange to live in an area where you don’t hear/see much!
Biden’s speaking at some college in Asheville next week (UNC Asheville?? Criminal Justice Center??). The head of the Young Democrats at the school said he was hoping that they could gin up some enthusiasm (so, I guess there hasn’t been any?).
Cherokee NC is only about 45 miles from UNC Ashville, so the Elizabeth Warren crowd ought to have it going on for Biden, no? (Ashville is to the left of San Francisco).
I am in suburban Philadelphia. I don’t watch TV & I only listen to right-wingnutz radio so I can’t comment on advertisements. What is striking to me is the LACK of Obama bumper stickers & yard signs – there are hardly any at all.
I was at (yet another) funeral yesterday and although most of my family is hardcore Democrat, I overheard several family members discussing the election & they agreed that they weren’t going to vote. I guess the idea of voting for a *gasp* Republican was too horrifying. Hey, works for me!
I am in the South Puget Sound of WA state, so I guess those Obama ads I am seeing are in the Seattle television market; there are Romney ads also. I don’t get it; Seattle will surely go for Obama, and WA state very likely (because of Seattle-King County, and my county of Thurston, where Olympia is (home of Evergreen College, Rachel Corrie’s alma mater)). The signs and bumper stickers I see are evenly split between the candidates, which is much different from last Presidential election, when Obama-phoria was everywhere.
I live in Richmond, VA. There are a lot fewer Obama yard signs and bumper stickers than in ’08. There is dfinitely less enthusiasm for Obama this time around. Virginia is pretty red except for Northern Va which has the largest population center and is the sole reason Virginia is purple. Va enjoys a low unemployment rate due to its proximity to DC and large numer of federal employees which will probably help Obama.
Admittedly I don’t have a good feel for Northern Virginia but we have a succesful Republican governor who did well statewide which probably helps Romney.
The Senate race between Tim Kaine and George Allen appears to be close and that race is probably a barometer for how the presidential race will go.
The WaPo has a poll with Obama up 8 points which seems highly unlikely. Both Obama/Biden and Romeny/Ryan have been in state a lot recently which belies the claim that Obama is up by 8 points.
As a joke, a liberal friend of mine put me on a Democratic email list and the emails I get from the Democrats are pretty shrill which makes me think they are desperate. I am cautiously optimistic Virginia will return to the Republican fold given the lack of Democratic enthusiasm.
I live in Connecticut, which “should be” a safe state for Obama – yet I’ve seen oodles of Obama commercials on television. Why spend all of that money where your success should be guaranteed?
What is even more telling is that I have yet to see an Obama yard sign anywhere in my travels, although I’ve seen Romney signs (not a ton, mind you, but they are there). I also see very few Obama bumper stickers – and most of the ones I do see are from the last election. I also see a number of Linda McMahon for Senate signs and have seen none for her Dem opponent, Chris Murphy (who is my Congressman and a total moron). Even my husband, who will be voting for Obama (much to my dismay), may be voting for Linda for senate.
My mother is an Eeyore who is buying into the vintage media hype. I, for one, won’t give in until the final votes are counted.
very few obama yard signs here in the very blue metro west of boston,— framingham, sudbury, wayland, they were loaded last election, almost zero bumper stickers here for obama too and they were a ton of them in 2008, liberal land here is taking a good look at scott brown too, interesting times.