It’s very difficult in Ithaca or Rhode Island to get a sense of how the presidential contest is playing out.
Because both New York and Rhode Island are sure winners for Obama, there is virtually no advertising on television in these markets for the presidential race. In Ithaca, which draws on the Syracuse and Binghamton television stations, there are plenty of ads for Republican congressional candidates, and few for Democrats; so at least that is good to see.
If all you heard were the local news stations, which regurgitate the national broadcast networks, you’d think Romney wasn’t even running in the race, except when he does something supposedly wrong. And polls writing Romney’s chances off are recited in 1-3 sentences, and then on to local news.
Let’s face it, if you get alot of your news from Memeorandum or similar internet news aggregators, you’d get the same feeling. My home page is Google News, and the front page stories linked almost always are from the mainstream media and are negative to Romney’s chances or portraying him in a bad light.
One has the sense sitting here that there isn’t even a campaign, much less a contest.
But this is a bubble. Can it be that in swing states the Romney campaign and supporting SuperPACs are as silent as it seems?
The mainstream media in many ways is in the same bubble I am in, located in deep blue cities and states which are not really contested, so they impart the same feeling I get in Ithaca.
I welcome feedback from readers.
DONATE
Donations tax deductible
to the full extent allowed by law.
Comments
I live in a red zone of California and it’s the same thing. The local news doesn’t cover the race and the national news is the same everywhere.
I feel the same way as you do. But I am convinced (while Romney is slightly behind right now in states he needs to win) this is essentially a close close race.
This Boston Globe poll shows Warren +5, but only bringing in 43% of the vote? And Brown is only bringing in 38%? That just does not sound possible. There are that many undecideds in Massachusetts (19%)? And maybe I missed it, but what is the breakdown in that poll of Dems/Repubs/Indies?
On January 10, 2010 (ten days before the election), when a recent Rasmussen poll was showing Brown just single digits behind Martha Coakley and a just completed PPP poll was showing a dead heat, a Boston Globe – UNH poll (same organization as this time) showed Coakley with a 15 point lead. https://legalinsurrection.com/2010/01/globe-poll-an-outlier/
That is the only time to predict anything with polls. Right before an election where there is veritable proof to compare them to. Right now, the polls are just propaganda for team Obama to get his voters to the polls by polling orgs and media companies who want him to get reelected. Watch for some “unexpected” tightening in the d+10% polling as we get closer to the election.
Just this morning the Columbus Dispatch released a poll showing Obama widening his lead in Ohio. They also just so happened to poll 10% more dems than reps and under polled independents. They also had 30% of their sample from people who make under 30,000$ a year when these people typically make up 5-10% of the electorate, the base Obama phone people. These guys typically vote 60-70% for Obama. Which is what they are doing in this poll.
They poll what they want to see, not what is really happening.
You know we are in trouble when Yahoo news [if there is such a thing] has called the race over and Obama has won.
It has to be an outlier because the data makes absolutely no sense.
Sure enough, WBUR just released new poll showing Warren’s lead down from 5 to just 2 (effectively dead heat). http://www.boston.com/politicalintelligence/2012/10/01/elizabeth-warren-lead-over-scott-brown-narrows-two-points-wbur-poll/uZrW7LT45VorSTvhtFx1QO/story.html
Double the amount of Democrats as Republicans
Democrats have so much respect for minorities: Democrats fought Abe Lincoln
when he freed black people from slavery. A Democrat drove the “Trail of
Tears”. Democrats came up with Jim Crow laws. Democrats opposed women’s
suffrage. Democrats developed abortion and birth control as a way to lower the
population of minorities. A Democrat threw the Japanese in internment camps. A
Democrat ordered the Tuskegee experiments. Democrats filibusters civil rights
bills in the 1960s. And today, Democrats keep blacks and other minorities from
reaching their potential by enslaving them in economic disparity and government
dependence. Need I say more, it’s easy to see who the real racists in this
country are!
As a Hispanic (Cuban American) “racist” in NV voting for Romney. The truth is Obama has not done anything in general for both the white and minorities. Believe me many Latinos will vote for Mitt Romney, and YES please no hate because most Hispanics have a mind of their own. (Cubans being the MOST loyal of GOP constituencies). We are Not in the plantation of the DEM/Liberal Machine. We will have Hope and Change and that is with Romney/Ryan 2012 for Liberty and Freedom!! Not Obama/Biden for Handouts and Government enslavement.
I really think NV can go to Romney. Romney needs to really treat the rest of this race as a backyard brawl and go for Obama’s jugular. Calling Obama a “nice guy” while Obama and his cronies are calling you a felon, murder, etc, is NOT going to get it done.
Come on Romney, we are on the homestretch.
In CT and MA there is a lot of local coverage for Senate and Congressional races. The presidential election is almost exclusively regurgitated like others have stated. The exception comes whenever a local speaks up about the race, and that is mostly in MA. There is no shortage of elected class types looking for a little air/print time by making some derogatory or negative comment about Romney, or praising Obama. After all, Deval Patrick is actively campaigning for Obama.
I live in libtardia near an ivy univ. The state went big time for Hillary and then settled for Obama. Things here are down right creepy because of the lack of political signs and bumper stickers for the dems. Romney bumper stickers are beginning to appear. I have seen 1, that’s 1 Obama lawn sign. I do not expect to see and Romney sign because either the voters will stay home or they won’t be signaling that they will vote for Romney. There are signs for GOP challengers to the dem senator and congressmen everywhere. There is a totally different mood here.
I live in a red zone in Oregon. I’ve seen only a handful of anti-Obama bumper stickers. No yard signs are up for either Romney or Obama. I think Americans are tired of the race because of a biased media, or they are keeping quiet. I hope the silent majority picks Romney. These last four years seem like eight with the Worst President Ever in the White House.
Dr.J…Take a peek at my 11:59am comment to Sally on your “Call a Doctor” thread. (Sorry, I’m a cyber T-Rex or I’d link the 2-pieces referred to there for ya..)
I’m a lifelong So.Californian now living in the Bubble-Vapor-Koolaid Free Zone of Central Florida(Winter Park). I can speak of my great admiration for George W. Bush in a cafe booth and not check behind my back to see if a knife is coming at me. Imagine! I’ve got plenty of Dem friends here, of course, but it’s obvious that the ‘Newness’, Fire and Enthusiasm for His Infantile Majesty is all but GONE. 2010 we elected solid conservatives for Governor & Senate and plenty of other places in Florida. Nobody is expressing gusto for The Boy King. Just a flat-line, non-heartbeat assumption that he’ll be in again. Not so, our side. Plenty of Quiet Fire. Much steady enthusiasm. Lot’s of ‘Below the Treeline’ organizing, Tea Party activity, meetings, etc.
Come the night of November 6th, I ‘spect a whole lot of weeping, wailing, rending of pricey garments…And, large relief that Americans have walked back from the cliff.
But to answer directly to your question Professor, here in NV, the media is barely covering the race. Obama ads outnumber Romney ads 4, even 5 to 1. As a matter of fact, living in Northern Nevada (Reno area) which leans GOP, I WOULD expect more Romney ads. I really don’t see many. Obama’s campaign also seems to have a much more visible ground presence.
I signed up for Obama campaign emails only to keep track of what Obama is telling his dronies. I have to also make note that the Obama campaign is constantly emailing me about GOTV stuff in NV, even registration, early voting. I get personalized emails about what’s happening in NV 5-6 a day from Obama. From Romney, I have yet to even get anything acknowledging the fact I’m even in NV. This is troubling to me. Romney’s campaign really needs to get their voter outreach operation in better shape.
In 2004, Washoe County which is (Reno/Sparks) gave Bush the final margin to carry NV. (I was too young to vote).
I really think NV can return to the GOP column with a good ground game. (NV has a large Mormon population as well).
That’s odd. Here in North Carolina I haven’t signed up with Romney and I get at least two on average e-mail messages a day from the Romney campaign and a message from the state party. I suspect they got my e-mail from other conservative sources. I also get daily campaign related e-mails from other conservative organizations.
Same thing here in Northern California. My vote is almost pointless, but I always vote anyway. Every MSM news outlet is utterly biased for Obama. No pro-Romney ads are seen, or at least I haven’t seen any. It is a deep blue bubble for sure. Without the internet, I’d be totally in the dark.
Another NorCalian here.
But I don’t participate with the MSM so my observations are indirect.
I see some few RR signs, much like Repub bumper stickers in ’08. No difference. But, I see 20 times, maybe 50 times LESS Obama stickers. Plus a third of the ones I see are Obama/Biden2008 and starting to fade…Hopefully this is an omen for the future.
I’m guessing Rags and our other Texans seeing a different world 🙂
Last night watching TV with our son when I asked him to change the channel and the remote didn’t seem to be working:
“I think the remote control is broken, Dad. Some Democrat probably made it.”
I honestly don’t know anymore. Something is going on in this country — rather, a collision of so many potent phenomena (the now open and unabashed seditions of the Left and the media, the Tea Party, the corruption of polling, the sense of a “silent” majority or of a massive “Bradley effect” in the nation) that my prognosticative instincts are all messed up.
I’m only certain of a few things. 1. Obama’s re-election is unimaginable to me. I’d like to say this was a matter of logic and not partisanship. But I cannot find a single logical reason why anybody would vote for this man — he’s been so utterly awful by every objective measurement. The only logical reasons are either ignorance or a conviction that the alternative is worse. But that may be enough, and probably has been in the past.
The other certainty is that Romney’s failure to identify the media as his principal enemy and to cohere and exploit a narrative accordingly has been the greatest and most unforgivable political failure and even abrogation of responsibility in my lifetime. We’ve never been more let down at a crucial time. Romney couldn’t even take the work that WE’VE done (from Breitbart to Legal Insurrection and all the other yeoman conservative sites which have basically served as Romney’s research department) and make halfway effective use of it. It is a failure which will haunt him even if he wins. And while his obtuseness or cowardly reluctance is not irreversible, who really at this point that this man will change his spots?
No, we shouldn’t be in this fix. At the very least, we should be going down in a fight equal to the unprecedentedly destructive challenges we face, not as if we’re in a gentlemanly race of a bygone era vying for the most competent economic steward. It’s just desolating.
Ditto here in Texas as it is in the bag for Romney.
I depend more on trying understand the sentiment nationwide. From what I can gather, there is far more negatives than positives and this is not good news for any incumbent.
I’m going with the University of Colorado group that is forecasting a landslide Romney win.
If I’m wrong… I’m glad that I’m well into the retirement scene and you young’ns can figure it out!
I tend to agree, based upon the following:
1. beyond belief response on Chick-Fil-A
2. overflowing Romney-Ryan rallies
3. country is heading in wrong direction
4. higher than 8% general unemployment
5. higher than 20% teen/college unemployment
I sense a lot of pent up anger and frustration, and a widespread backlash would not surprise me. However, we may expect never before seen levels of Democratic voter fraud as they have honed this to an art. So … I cannot predict an outcome.
I wish I could agree that the upper hand given to Obama is just a media psy op, but whn Rasmussen has Obama up by a few points both nationally and in enough swing states to win, I have to believe that that’s probably the truth — at least for right now.
As others have mentioned, the battle seems to only be in the contested states. I live in South Carolina, a Romney lock, and there is very little of the election to be seen. Really, not much congressional or local advertising, since the Democrats really don’t even try here. So, it seems if your state is already firmly in one camp or the other, the election doesn’t even exist.
Of course, I don’t blame the GOP/Romney for not wasting resources here at all…but I did feel the need to put election day on my google calender, with a pop-up reminder, so I don’t somehow sleepwalk thru it.
In Arizona we gauge by the number of conservative bumper stickers on a vehicle rather than conservative vs liberal bumper stickers.
Our pickup truck is a conservative bill board of conservative stickers and we get tons of honks/thumbs up.
My favorite is the “does this ass make my truck look big?”
http://www.cafepress.com/mf/46560053/does-this-ass-make-my-truck-look-big_bumper-sticker?
The one most people comment on to us is the “US Constitution – Frustrating Liberals Since 1776.”
http://i1.cpcache.com/product/485435574/the_constitution_bumper_sticker.jpg?color=White&height=460&width=460
Seems many love to express their solidarity with our conservative truck.
And, the Liberals’ reactions? duck & cover
Prof, here in KY, R-2 is up abot 20pts. To the point, the GOP is set to take the State House of REPs this fall. GOP has Senate for 12yrs. Will win a new GOP congressional seat too here in the 6th district. No PREZ ads in KY as R-2 is winning all regions including the the Louisville are by 14pts. QStar tracking has R-2 up 3 – 8 pts in the last week. I was wary of QStar at first, but some friends in polling tell me it is doing a legitimate model. Well see. Rass has it tied nationally with Swing states tied in the up 2 or down 2 mode day to day. Based on the Univ of Colorado model as long as UNEMP stays above 6% and the GDPis flat, then the incumbent will lose. UC will do there final adjustment to their model this week. hand in there new England. I think R-2 will win NH, and McMahon will pull in Conn. Warren fine in MA. It will be R53 O46. USH gain about 10 – 15 seats at most. USS will gain 5 to 8 seats( including Lingle Lingle in HI. A couple of new GOVs to. One in NC for sure and the other in NH. I know how it is to be in a bubble. Allen in Lexington
I live on the far west side of Cleveland, Ohio, and took a drive an hour and a half south last night. Saw nothing on the way but lawn signs for Romney/Ryan and Josh Mandel. Did see a few Sherrod Brown ones, but no Obama ones. Have not seen a lot of Obama 2012 stickers either. Then we have a small handful of people who are for Ron Paul or Gary Johnson. Of course, most of the areas I drove through were small town or rural. I’m afraid most of metro Cleveland will be like Cell Phone Woman, unfortunately.
A 1000 apologies for all the typos above. Was writing with children al around me with questions. I think my point got across. -A
I stand by my prediction…
a sea-change election, with America flushing the Obamic Decline.
When that happens, the change will begin the next morning following the election, and will be like night and day.
Rags…I’m with you, Boyo. Something weird is going on and I keep a grip on the opinion–long held–that America is going to step back from the Fatal Edge and not go for Catastrophe. Except for the blind & ignorant Who-T-F wants America’s ruin?
Thanks for sharing that bong with NeoCon.
I agree. It’s going to Reagan/Carter all over again.
Remarkable quiet. Like the media has decided the best strategy is to just try to run out the clock.
Central California desert. We feel “surrounded” by incompetence, victims of enemies with impossibly huge “war chests” spent with abandon by so-called “warriors of America” whose first concerns stopped focusing upon our State and Republic long, long ago.
Some conservatives despair. Progressives pass us by on the road with luxury cars and bumper stickers which seem to flaunt not merely “confidence” but sheer distain for we “little people.
BUT…AND IT IS A HUGE, HUGE “CAVEAT”…IT IS SUNDAY, AND THAT IS “GO TO CHURCH DAY”. In numberless chapels, synagoges, cathedrals, and houses of worship of VERY different “flavors”, “creeds”, “beliefs”, and “practices” there is…a stirring. [It is a UNITING!]
AND throughout America, as Conservatives go “on-line” and extend miraculous “electronic handshakes” with others in ways our FOUNDERS COULD NEVER IMAGINE, there is…a stirring. [It is a sharing!]
AND in our very hearts, at times hopeful, and times fearful unto tears, there is…a stirring. [It is a message from The God of Our Fathers!]
AND to souls of such tiny worth, a COMPULSION, A NEED for expression may come–to give a message, not merely of hope but of TRIUMPH AWAITING:
I bid you JOY, my Patriot friends,
Who labor with me in these days.
And though, at times, our path seems bleak,
We now perceive God’s better way!
Our message brims with faith and hope
A voice of love that is God’s own!
And if chill fears should shade our hearts,
We seem to hear, “You’re not alone–
“Be still and know that I AM GOD**,
“With sacred blessings held, reserved,
“For those who love COLUMBIA*,
“A nation I raised up to serve
“This world to which I gave MY LIGHT
“That Freedom’s Power be preserved!”
Then let us strive toward what-should-be,
With all who share our troubled days.
That by God’s grace, throughout all time,
With you, we’ll sing COLUMBIA’S praise!
* Columbia = United States; new Latin from Christopher Columbus; first used 1775.
** MUST READ: Psalms 46:8-11–too long to quote here
See also: 1 Corinthians 2:9 (KJV) “But as it is written, Eye has not seen, nor ear heard, neither have entered into the heart of man, the things which God has prepared for them that love him.” [This is not a promise for Christians alone. I respectfully submit that all those who believe and
beseech a Supreme Being and obey THE RULE OF LAW are entitled to comparable promises. I dare predict that those who advance the cause of freedom in these treacherous times, shall someday meet the souls of the suffering soldiers of Valley Forge WHO SHALL GREET US AS FELLOW SERVANTS OF FREEDOM WORTHY OF THEIR RESPECT AND ETERNAL COMPANIONSHIP. This is no small thing.]
It is Sunday in America. A day for prayer, singing, worship, fasting, and in a thousand thousand places great and small we have never been in this, THE BEST OF ALL LANDS, thousands of thousands of our countymen whom we have never met and do not know BECOME JOINT PETITIONERS AND PENITENTS AT THE ALMIGHTY’S THRONE BESEECHING HEAVEN’S AID.
WE WILL NOT, OF OURSELVES, SAVE AMERICA, BUT GOD WILL SAVE BOTH AMERICA AND US.
In the deep blue bubble
Personally, I prefer “Tangled Up in Blue” professor … there’s a line in it where Dylan sings “I keep doin’ what I do best … keep on keepin’ on.” 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwSZvHqf9qM
I thought Romney was going to make a play for Michigan but I haven’t seen but maybe one TV ad for him. None for Obama. Of course, the only channels I regularly watch are HGTV, DIY, and Investigation Discovery so maybe the ads are showing on the major networks.
I’ve seen quite a few ads from both Hoekstra and Stabenow. And many about the proposals on the ballot. (The unions want to make collective bargaining a “right” in the MI constitution.)
I don’t watch the local news.
Our deep-blue bubbles are joined somehow. Deep-blue Seattle
has, on A-15 of the paper, a headline on Romney’s desperate attempt to overturn an impossible Obama lead through his last chance, the debate. On Wednesday, it had an oh-so-balanced comparison of Romney’s and Obama’s deficit-reductions ‘plans’. It was about 90 percent opinion, carefully selected by editors to feature ‘analysts’ who tried to demolish Romney’s plan, and softly murmered minor differences with Obama’s. Today’s front page has a ‘news article’ which might just as well be a praise song in favor of the Democrat candidate for Governor, who has heroically spent his recent years in DC ‘working’ for renewable energy, with no accounting for costs.
In other news, Metro has ended the free-ride bus zone downtown, and the local homeless advocate NGO has booted all the homeless out of their camps, the better to bulk up street demonstrations against Metro’s decision.
If you mean the Seattle Times, they are slightly ahead (behind?) the national average in declining subscriptions, I’ve read. But they are still on a steady 4 – 6% annual decline. Case in point is your observation. They do not target the larger population, even in the region.
I get both Toledo and Cleveland television. As might be guessed, the local news, television, radio, and newspaper, is heavily slanted for Obama. As an example: the recent day Romney was in Toledo, the local evening news (not sure if it was 11 or 13 in Toledo) used a blurb by Romney on jobs and the economy, but then devoted twice as much time to union demonstrators, one of whom was interviewed longer than Romney and explained they were there because Romney at Bain sent all the jobs, every single one (of the companies he took over), to China! What’s more depressing is that there seems to be one or more Obama ads in every single commercial break during prime time, which all seem like blatant and uncontested lies to me, because there are very few Romney ads beings shown. Isn’t Romney supposed to have a money advantage???
Keith: I did not copy or note a very intense piece of analysis which discusses R & R’s likely focus upon “the last two weeks”. I felt a renewed sense of courage and calm from the discussion seen there.
Analogy: The Dems tried in dozens of ways to “control or command” Romney’s release of the name of his VP pick–their efforts did not just fail, they made the Dems look foolish. I am wholeheartedly in favor of Paul Ryan and I saw the timing of his selection as perfect. God bless.
I live in San Diego, California, the “conservative” part of the state. I knew this would be a close race a little over a year ago, when my cousin, who is deeply involved in the education system here, and who will vote for Obama no matter what, told me she had seen the funniest bumper sticker: “How’s that Hopey Changey stuff working for you?”
It has been a long, slow slog teaching her to recognize that the Republican philosophy for making the economy work better is based on solid economic principles, and that Republicans are actively interested in improving the lot of both school children and indigent adults.
She still gets her news from the New York Times, NPR and MSNBC. She doesn’t even know how serious the financial scandals of this administration really are.
She did not recognize the origin of that bumper sticker. She had no idea that was a quote from Sarah Palin. But she thought it was remarkable and funny, because even she has some idea of how badly this administration has failed.
Take heart, and press on. There’s a win to be had, here, and keep up the good work with Operation Counterweight. We must have both Houses of Congress, particularly if we fail to take the Presidency.
I am in Chicago, Jesse’s district, no less.
No ads whatsoever.
Occasionally I will see one on Fox News.
Also, I have so far seen FIVE obama2012 stickers….since July; NO yards signs anywhere in our town. None. In 2008, I was conspicuous in lacking a BO sign on the lawn. No Romney signs/stickers…but, remember, this is Illinois, republicans are smart enough not to put their leanings on their sleeves!
We ventured into the western Finger Lakes this weekend. What a difference from our closer-to-Ithaca neck of the woods! We observed not a single “Obama 2012”, “No Fracking” or Nate Shiangawa (Dem of congress) lawn sign or bumper sticker. We did, however, see many for Romney/Ryan and Tom Reed (Rep for congress). Refreshing, indeed.
Keith Vlasak, I would urge you (and everyone) to watch this video of Romney supporters lining up in Toledo for the recent rally. I think it will cheer you up – it certainly did me!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AA6qqNat8e0&feature=youtu.be
Great video.
When I went to You Tube and watched it, there was a video discussing “Obama ad spending crushing Obama in Ohio,” which refers to this article
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/obama-has-more-control-of-campaign-cash-and-with-it-an-edge-in-ad-rates/2012/09/26/c85304ea-03f9-11e2-91e7-2962c74e7738_story.html
which says that candidates get an ad discount and that Obama’s money is in his campaign coffers and Romney’s is in super PACS and the Republican National Committee. The discount makes Obama’s ads cost only 25% of what Romney’s ads cost to run.
Also referenced is a HuffPo site (to anyone who doesn’t know, please note that HuffPo is an unabashed Democrat propaganda site) which contains this paragraph:
“In the biggest metropolitan regions in Ohio, the ad battle on broadcast TV has been a rout. Obama ran 13,556 ads, more than double the 5,971 for Romney. In August, Obama’s ads outpaced Romney’s 6,473 to 3,281. In the two and a half weeks surveyed in September, the president’s advantage increased, with 7,083 ads to Romney’s 2,690.”
That can be found at
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/25/barack-obama-advertising_n_1913430.html
Here in The People’s Republic of Austin, I have seen very few Obama 2012 stickers – about 2-3 day, max, on my commute which takes me through central Austin and the UT campus. No lawn signs at all in my neighborhood until a couple of weeks ago; there are now 5-6. The whole town was covered in stickers and signs at this point in 2008.
Most folks here will vote for O – but the enthusiasm is simply not there. And I don’t think the youth/student vote will show up like they did time. If that’s true nationwide, Obama will have a tough time hanging on in the swing states.
Sure would like to see reports of massive Romney ad buys in swing states, though.
Red state (Texas), not one ad. At least it’s because virtually no one is a Democrat.
I can name at least two dead TX ‘rats – LBJ and Ann Richards.
And it only takes one dead ‘rat for legions to vote. 🙂
In Texas and there are no Presidential ads that I’ve seen (I don’t watch TV regularly, though). My understanding is that the ads are almost exclusively run in the swing states. I used to see ads when I lived in non-swing states in prior Presidential elections but I guess the decision was recently made by both sides not to spend money where it’s not needed. I’ve only seen about five Romney bumper stickers (about the same number for Obama). In my opinion, only idiots put any sort of bumper stickers or college decals on their cars, anyways.
It’s still about six weeks to the election, and anything can happen, but all the polls are showing some advantage for Obama–although slightly less than this time in 2008.
I remember conservatives predicting in 2008 that all the polls were wrong/intentionally misrepresenting and McCain would win in spite of them. He didn’t. I’d suggest not making the same mistake this time.
Heh. There is a fallacy in your logic. Just because the polls supported obastard in ’08 and he won, does not mean the polling was not deliberately skewed to obastard’s benefit. The fact that major pollsters skew left and their guys win about as often as they lose simply demonstrates the fact that their polling IS skewed and doesn’t represent the true trends. In other words, the fact that the pollsters are deliberately divorced from reality but their predictions end up realized half the time means that you or I could do the same by flipping a quarter. This is particularly true of the journalism-based/funded polls, such as WaPo, NYT, CBS, etc.. Their redefinition of the standardized “likely voter” is pure political pandering.
The fact that they deliberately skew their polling is the means by which they inject themselves into the game. The Fourth Estate using its privileges to influence the outcome according to their preference is an abominable violation of the people’s trust. The people should rebel against the lying media just as vigorously as they do against the lying politicians.
Professor, move 15 minutes north to Massachusetts, south of Worcester. Biggest ‘red zone’ in Massachusetts… Scott Brown got 65-70% in most of those towns in ”10
Things are looking up in my precinct in Hawaii. We doubled the amount of Conservative…we now have 2!
Instant messaging: It’s time to unearth Obama’s school records. They are not buried like Jimmy Hoffa is buried.
Here’s what I’m seeing in Kansas City. After the early August primaries, Obama ran ads here for about a week. Then the ads stopped for about a month. Recently Obama and a SuperPac have been running ads again, but very sporadically. Presumably, they have internal polling suggesting the race is tightening somewhat and they’re trying to get some momentum. If Obama’s ad intensity increases or if Romney starts running ads here, we’ll know more how much the race is tightening and if we need to panic about Missouri.
What could be interesting here is CD-5 held by Eldridge Cleaver. It’s been a solidly Democrat district in part I think because it’s where Harry Truman grew up and where he lived and died after his presidency ended. But after the 2010 redistricting, it’s become more Republican. Cleaver won re-election in 2010 (obviosly before it became more Republican after redistricting) with his worst percentage ever with only 53% of the vote. We’re now in his district and the further north and east you go from us, the more conservative the electorate is. We’re right on the northern border of the newly redrawn district, but it goes much further east than it used to. Interestingly, Cleaver’s opponent this year is the same guy he barely beat in the 2010 wave.
It think the power of incumbency gives Cleaver the edge, but if Republican turnout is strong, it has the potential to be an upset Republican win.
I obviously meant Emanuel Cleaver, not Eldridge.
We’re in eastern TN, which is solid Republican. But we just got back from the Outer Banks, and it was a sea of R2 signs – not one obastard sign – from Duck to Cape Hatteras. Driving the logical route to and from the ‘banks through most of NC and a small part of VA, signage was about 3:1 for R2.
[…] In the deep blue bubble – Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion […]
OMG. Perrysburg’s in Ohio. Non stop. Day and night. Both sides. Even Pandora. What can I tell ya.
OMG.
I know what you mean. When we lived in Ohio, during a Presidential election year it wasn’t safe to turn on the television or answer either the phone or the doorbell.
Live and work in NYC, also known as Obama Central. Forget it.
However, I visit often in Southern NJ — near Atlantic City. Not seeing Obama signs this time, but have seen a few Romney/Ryan lawn signs this weekend. Nothing like 2008 here.
As far as Romney not advertising heavily…wait for it. Television spots cost some serious coin. He is most likely keeping his powder dry for the final stretch of the campaign when the less-informed start to pay attention.
And here in Connecticut, I see a LOT of Obama television ads. Do the internals for Obama indicate the state may be in play…?
I see very few Obama stickers and more Romney ones.
I’m down in the southeastern corner of CT, and I too am seeing a lot of TV ads for Ø and none so far for R/R. I’m not seeing a lot of signs for either candidate, either lawn or bumper, but of those I am seeing, there at least as many R/R lawn signs as Ø, and so far only two or three 2012 Ø bumper stickers.
I am seeing a lot of ads for the Senate seat as well as the state offices, though mostly from the Republicans.
On Politico’s poll page, they have that silly Hartford Courant/UConn poll, with Ø ahead by more than he won by in 2008. I still haven’t found the internals, but someone who has says they were way off. They also have a new Public Policy Polling poll from this past week, which shows Ø ahead by 13. But when you find the internals they too seem to be way off. They have (D)-43, (R)-26, (I)-32 on likely voters. However, everything I’ve found from ’08 and ’10 shows their D/R spread to be about right, not quite two to one, but there should be more (I) than (D). The active votes in 2010 were (R)-419K, (D)-751K, (I) and (O)-855K. If this was adjusted to (D)-37,(R)-21), (I)-42, I think Ø’s lead would be much, MUCH smaller. I can’t check because the internals are based on how liberal/conserative the votes labels themselves to be, not their party affiliation. I wonder if that is intentional so you can’t unskew it?
Suburbs of Chicago here. I stopped watching TV news a long time ago and have never had a newspaper subscription. I figured out that the internet could deliver all the news I wanted with and without the bias I wanted. I do read the editorial opinion of the tribune every once and a while (a co-worker brings it into the office every day to read at lunch), and while I generally gloss over clarence (every republican is a racist) page, the editorial actually has some value every now and again (they do like to hammer on the IL Deficit and poor education state) and Krauthammer is generally fun to read.
I live in Florida. There are LOTS of ads for both candidates, from their campaigns and also super pacs. Went to Paul Ryan’s townhall at UCF (Orlando) and it was packed. Standing room only. Had trouble getting a yard sign because the local offices are selling out quickly. Hope that is very good news. Our county is pretty red so enthusiasm among Republicans would be expected. (Think we were one of the counties that voted for McCain /Palin in 2008)
Generally not seeing as many bumper stickers as last election so far.
If The One is “Winning!” in OH, how come you see this?
This was the line of people waiting to enter a civic center in OH (I don’t know if its was Cleveland or Cincinnati). Watch that line: it was going around an entire city bloc. Those were hundreds upon hundreds of people there, in that very line! I don’t know the actual attendance to the rally, but it easily overwhelmed the 25 or so people Union-paid Obamabots demonstrating across the street.
Something is going on here, and is not being recorded. Maybe the MSM doesn’t want to report it, or the people have lost all trust in the MSM, or what have you… but I’m getting the feeling that this whole thing about Romney/Ryan “going under the radar” thing is a strategy of theirs, done on total, calculated purpose…
I am in my own blue bubble in Wilmington, DE, but took a drive up to the Finger Lakes last weekend. The heart of the drive is through Pennsylvania and I decided to keep track of the bumper stickers along the way. I was surprised to see that political bumper stickers were nearly non-existent. Before I even left Wilmington, I saw one car covered in conservative bumper stickers (a rarity around here), but after that I only counted 1 Romney sticker roundtrip (two if you count mine). I didn’t see a single Obama sticker.
As others of said, I am hoping the silent majority is ready to turn out to kick Obama out.
I’m In a blue part of CO. I see more Obama ads than Romney ads and Romney needs to win here. The economy in CO is terrible. I often wonder, since the networks are so biased, can they take the money for an ad, and not play the ad? I keep hearing how Romney is going to outspend Obama, but I am not seeing it or hearing about it.
From deep within the CT Bubble. Actually Im surprised to find ther letters R Y A N still working on reporters keyboards.
Front page News
http://www.courant.com/community/west-hartford/hc-ryan-west-hartford-1001-20120930,0,7926233.story
Asheville is very liberal. In 2008 it was blanketed with Obama yard signs and bumper stickers. This year I’ve seen a total of three in Asheville and two in Waynesville but those two were on cars with Florida license plates. There aren’t many Obama yard signs either. I’ve seen only three.
My neighbor, whose never had signs up before, has Romney and McCrory signs in her yard. I hadn’t seen many Romney bumper stickers before the last week but now they seem to be coming out in pretty good numbers.
Here’s another one.
If The One is “Winning!”, then how can anyone explain this?
Polls: Romney leads Obama 51% to 44% in trust to handling the economy
Seriously, there’s something happening here, and very few people are noticing, let alone recording it. Romney/Ryan going “under the radar” of the MSM and the Dems may well be fully and calculatedly on purpose…
I’ve been asking myself the same thing. It’s not just that the polls don’t make sense or are over-weighted to Democrats, it’s that they often seem to be self-contradictory.
I have been phone banking through the “at home” system the Romney website has set up. I’ve been assigned to call New Hampshire & I cannot believe the sheer amount of people who (1) do not answer their phones and (2) hang up once I introduce myself with the script “Hi my name is Angie and I’m calling with a short survey about the presidential election. Do you have a moment to answer a few questions?” Yesterday, for example,I called for 2 hours mid-afternoon NH time and in all that time only 20 people actually answered their phone (out of at least 100 calls); of those 20, 15 either hung up or told me “Sorry, no. I don’t have time.” So I got 5 answers — 3 Obama; 2 Romney. I’ve phone banked in several elections before & I’ve never encountered this. I understand Caller ID is a big reason for not answering, but all the hang ups & refusals to answer are really weird compared to my prior experience with actual person calling (Being Southern, I’m very polite on these calls — in fact, one of the Romney voters who actually answered only did so after he remarked how polite I was & changed his mind about answering the survey — initially he told me he didn’t have time to do so). I have no idea how to gauge anything, but I certainly have more sympathy for the pollsters — they are just going with whatever & whoever they can “get” to answer them.
I just finished reading a Michael Barone column citing a Pew statistic that only 9% of those reached by pollsters agree to respond. He says the same statistic was 36% back in 1997. He thinks it may be due to poll fatigue. Years ago pollsters polled in person. Then as landline phones became ubiquitous, they used live people to dial up people. Now many of them use a machine to robo-dial and record responses. The result is there are far more polling outfits today conducting far more polls than ever before.
When I answer the phone and I realize it’s a machine on the other end, I hang up immediately. I resent that someone has programmed a machine to intrude on my precious free time FOR THEIR BENEFIT and I get absolutely nothing out of it. Screw that.
Hi neighbor! I’m in WNC myself and the wife an I have caller ID and NEVER answer political calls. We’ll be voting a straight Republican ticket, though.
Hi, all WNCers,
I’m from Texas, but here in WNC until just before the election. All of a sudden, today, I saw TONS of Romney/Ryan signs (new ones, red background, VERY good looking and eye catching) around Cashiers, Etowah, Brevard, ASHEVILLE (who knew?) and Hendersonville. Lots of McCrory signs too. The signs were both along the highways and in front of private residences- it was encouraging.
With all of the lies that Obama, his sycophants and the media are spreading about Romney, you would think that Obama would be ahead by 20 points, yet it is a close race.
I personally believe that most independents are sick of Obama’s lies and failed policies, yet they do not want to be branded as “racist” if they say that they support Romney/Ryan.
We shall see.
anyone would be even in the poles…if the MSM were to schill for them as they do for Obama.
Denver Post had same chart filled with distortions about Romney’s economic plan vs. Obamas. Everyone knows The Denver Post is a pro-democrat newspaper. So not a big surprise.
Rural eastern NC is historically Democrat by a nose and a half, but not anymore. Since 2010 it is GOP +5 or so. Most interestingly, our Tea Party numbers lady says our group’s 2500+ membership is about 10% black.
RE: The Air War. The Obama team has found it necessary to spend every dollar and then some, running a deficit (big surprise there, eh?), just to keep even with Romney, whose team has been more circumspect in its TV ad expenditures. I believe they intend a massive ad blitz for the final three weeks, say Oct 15th on, because the Obama team, having blown its wad, won’t be able to match it and won’t have the time to counter it.
RE: Polls. That polling is highly questionable has always been the case, otherwise terms like ‘outlier’ wouldn’t be necessary, nor would it be necessary to collect and average out polls, as does RCP if they were inherently accurate. The accuracy of polls may only be determined after the fact, which defeats their predictive purpose. I don’t care if the polls have Romney down ten or up twenty, they are unreliable, this cycle more than ever. However, even if polls are inherently inaccurate, two historical near-absolutes are extant:
1) Incumbents who cannot maintain at least 50% in the polls almost always lose (true whether after-the-fact scoring shows the polling to have been accurate or not). Obama hasn’t gotten close to 50% in national polls. For anyone currently undecided, what could cause them to choose Obama now? The undecideds are rejecting Obama and checking out Romney, that is, if they aren’t supporting Obama at this late date, they aren’t really undecided at all. 75% or so of undecideds eventually break for the challenger, usually within a week of the election. So, if a current poll says Obama 47%, Romney 44%, 7% undecided, Romney wins 51-52% to 48-49%. (Assuming an accurate poll, of course).
B) Whenever polling shows that more than 50% of voters feel the country is going in the wrong direction, the incumbent loses. That number, depending on the pollster, currently runs between 60-72% who believe the country is on the wrong track. Why would they vote to keep the status quo?
-I’m seeing Romney 52-56% winning over Obama at 44-48%.
-I’m seeing an unusually high incidence of straight ticket voting, in favor of the GOP. Coattails!
-I’m seeing at least a 50/50 split in the US Senate, and a likely GOP takeover.
-I’m seeing the GOP easily maintaining their current House majority.
-I’m seeing a continuance of the 2010 wave at the state level, with considerable GOP gains.
-I’m seeing a defeated and demoralized Democrat Party tossing out all the lefties who’ve taken it over since 2006, and a return to the center-left alignment of previous years.
-I’m seeing a 40 years in the desert future for the Democrat far left.
-I’m seeing a Cornell Associate Professor of Law offered the Romney administration Attorney General position.
-I’m seeing him graciously refuse the offer, electing instead to pursue a career in Hollywood as an action movie star.
Yes, I saw my math error, but it doesn’t change the outcome or point. I’m watching Cam Newton tear up the Falcons, got distracted.
“So, if a current poll says Obama 47%, Romney 44%, 7% undecided, Romney wins 51-52% to 48-49%. (Assuming an accurate poll, of course).”
Henry, ya lead-tongued lummox, why not just give them the simple formula?
Read a naional poll. Take the undecided number, multiply it by .75, and add it to Romney’s number. THAT’S the real number for Romney (again, assuming the poll numbers are accurate).
Here in south central Iowa, I hear a lot of radio commercials for Mitt Romney. I don’t think that I’ve heard one for Obama yet. One of the radio stations broadcasts ABC news at the top of every hour, and that’s what you’d expect; the local broadcasts don’t cover politics at all.
Professor, I know how you feel…I live in the Bezerkly hills.
Libs make going to a polling place in the blue bubble so uncomfortable that since 2004 I vote absentee.
In 2000 I walked to our neighborhood polling place, gave my name and address, however the woman on the desk couldn’t find my voter registration. She hadn’t asked my party affiliation..it was just assumed.
“I’m a Republican, you’re looking in the wrong book” I said.
Color drained from her face in surprise as she exclaimed at the top of her voice.
“She’s a Republican!11!!!”
All heads turned and someone on line actually gasped softly.
As I signed the book she handed me the ballot and announced “Your machine is over there” pointing to a single ballot reading machine standing on the other side of the room.
“Oh really, is that the machine that’s not counted? I replied.
You could have heard a pin drop. Asshats.
A friend of ours had a similar experience many years ago about as far away from Bez Hills as you can get. He worked for the same company my husband did and had transferred down from up north. Came primary voting day, he walked into a polling place in rural Arkansas and announced he wanted to vote in the Republican primary. According to him, everybody in the room gasped and took a step back away from him. Back then Republicans were lucky to field a few candidates in the general — I doubt they even dreamed of actually having a primary. But our friend is getting the last laugh. For the first time since Reconstruction it looks like all four of our Congressional seats will be held by Republicans, Obama is double digits down, Blanche Lincoln lost her Senate seat to a Republican last time around, most of our statewide offices were won by Republicans, and even our county, which has been Democratic, what is the phrase, since the memory of man runneth not to the contrary, threw all Democrats out who had an opponent, putting county government almost completely in the hands of Republicans or Independents. Between financial scandals, the misogyny of Obama and his cronies, and just the anger and fear people feel stemming from this government trying to micromanage (badly) every aspect of our lives, the Democrats have pissed off just about the entire state. So, hang in, it might even happen there someday.
Same thing happened here in NC after 2010, and we will complete the cycle by electing McCrory(R) for governor (even though he is suspiciously moderate to me).
William, I live in BLUE/BLUE Maryland…and I smell desperation in the Obama campaign. They’re advertising on TV AND Radio here…where Democrats outnumber GOP 3-1! Every 20 min or so there are commercials for the Obama campaign that try and hammer Romney.
Jews here (NW Baltimore/Pikesville) aren’t going to vote for Obama in lockstep this time around…they own businesses and are terrified of what the government (both Fed & State) are inflicting upon them, hence non-governmental highering is stagnant.
So, while I don’t think Romney will “take” Maryland, I suspect that it will be a lot closer than the last election was.
I’ve heard the same about Washington state, especially the very blue western side. Nonstop ads for Obama – what would be the point spending money there?
Obama is trying to drum up the base as much as possible. A sure sign of a losing campaign.
A confident campaign doesn’t spend money in safe areas…think about that…
Professor, up until a few years I resided in Cleveland of Cuyahoga County, Ohio in the heart of Democratic country. I watched the polls very closely during the 2004 Presidential Race between Bush and Kerry and remembering being dismayed about the results and thinking that Kerry was going to win up until the Friday before the election. That is when the Plain Dealer(PD) printed the current polls for the state of Ohio favoring Bush. ((As an aside, I can’t believe how long it has been since I read a real a printed paper.:) )) In the end we(Ohio) did go for Bush.
What I realize now is that the last poll that they published was dead on accurate because they wanted in retrospect to be able to say they were right in how they called it. Everything else was hog wash/disinformation to make themselves feel better.
I now live in a new uber liberal state and area. I don’t know what to make of this area is going to vote but being a Blue State they have one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation (not California or New York). Still I don’t see much enthusiasm for Obama in the form of bumper stickers or lawn signs.
I have felt that this election was going to follow the same mold of 2004 and the PD. Most voters are smarter than what the Democrats give them credit for and they will only believe the MSM and vote against their best interests if they haven’t thought about the past four years for at least 5 minutes.
That may well be what happens this time around…ROmney certainly isn’t acting like he’s behind. I suspect that internal poling is much, much closer.
Bill, The ads out here in Rapid City are predictably sparse. I will have to admit that we tape most all shows and FF through commercials; that, or we just “pause” and come back in an hour or so. I did see one obama ad on The Weather Channel one day and I think it was a Super PAC ad. It’s _deep_ Red out here, and only 3 electoral votes, so one wouldn’t expect any candidate to spend much money hereabouts. cheers, chuck
The comments on this thread have provided me with some optimism. The MSM, dems and polling psychops has been working on many conservative sites. It’s being drummed into people that it’s time to hang it up and accept the unacceptable.
But, like many of you have expressed, there is something so odd about the demeaner of this election. The anecdotal stories seem to say one thing, while the TV and print media seem to be espousing something completely different.
I live in a blue part of CA, where everyone is a liberal. It’s hard to get a grip on this election, from the people around me, as they are primarily all democrats. However, one thing I’ve noticed is that there is no where near the signage for Obama/Biden 2012 as there was in ’08. A few bumper stickers here and there are about it. I’m wondering if the democrats are investing less this year in that kind of advertising?
“But, like many of you have expressed, there is something so odd about the demeaner of this election. The anecdotal stories seem to say one thing, while the TV and print media seem to be espousing something completely different.”
The disconnect you are experiencing is the intended result of thirty years of political correctness. Since 2007 it has become a sign of Racism™ to disagree with then-candidate, now President Obama. It has long been supposed byh libs to be a sign of Racism™ to disagree with anything remotely race-related, like entitlements, affirmative action, illegals, etc. One learns to keep one’s feelings to one’s self, it’s just easier. We find the PC Police just about everywhere now – the media certainly, community organizations, college campuses, school boards, public agencies, etc., plus the media is using PC racethought to browbeat those who might not want to support Obama. We find the PC Police everywhere except *one* all-important place in particular – the voting booth. Heh, heh, heh.
You’re in California, PC Police Headquarters, and so you are enisled from middle American normalcy, but have faith. There are about 52-55% of the voting public out here preparing to endorse you and your non-PC nonsupport of Obama.
Many Missouri Catholics are angry.
-The Knights of Columbus are having a voter registration push.
-Some of us are fasting the 40 days before the election.
-Many long time proud and loud Dems are eerily quiet.
-In this solid blue county I have seen two Obama signs, only 2!
-I drive all over this county regularly, heck there are more Todd Akin signs up that Obama/Biden… no Romney Ryan signs yet…
we live in The Valley here in Lost Angels, and were over in the east end of it yesterday, running errands. we saw more than a few Romney stickers on cars, which is telling, since having something like that here is an open invitation to vandalism of you car, speaking from personal experience.
what is more telling is the dearth of Obanal stickers: in 08, they were all over, but now they are only slightly more common than Romney ones.
but, best of all, we were in a store, and we walked past a sub-genius wearing his Obama 08 t-shirt. i remarked to Resident Evil that his shirt might as well say “I’m Stupid” and homeslice exploded in anger, calling me a rightwing something or other as well as telling me to attempt an impossible physical act, etc… all in spluttering rage as he stormed out of the store.
this was not the response one would expect from a confident supporter of a leading candidate, but more the desperation of a true believer that senses his g*d has feet of clay and is about to become a footnote in history.
i doubt Falifornia will go red in November, but it might not be as blue as people are predicting. if the sheep here are looking up, the rest of the country should be as well.
as Patton said, do not take counsel of your fears.
located in the beachside area of S.Fla , only am seeing obama stickers on cars that also have that “one human family” sticker; only signs in our 200 single family home neighborhood are 5 Romney signs,in 2008 there was a huge obama sign on the main thorofare, it is not there yet. My parents and 4 out of 5 of my grown siblings and their kids are voting for obama again.My husband’s parents in NJ have agreed to vote for Romney; All my closest proximity neighbors are voting for obama again;Two weeks ago at the Catholic Church I attend and volunteer in had a register to vote table outside of the entrance; First time EVER! Priest spoke about the importance to vote.That means something! I believe it was a Miami archdiocese directive! I see a BLIZZARD landside !
That means something! I believe it was a Miami archdiocese directive! I see a BLIZZARD landside !
For who? Romney or Obama? With your neighbors and family voting for Obama, it was difficult to see where you were going with this comment.
Mr Jacobson,
To paraphrase H L Mencken:
No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of NY state voters.
Case in point: Kirsten Gillibrand.
1. Nary a presidential sign here in Central MA. Mostly Scott Brown, but not as many as I recall from last time. That will probably change as the election approaches.
2. Early on I gave Obama the edge, reckoning that unprincipled incumbency would narrowly compensate for his incompetence. I changed my attitude when the Romney campaign did things like the appearance near Solyndra. Now I’m back to my default estimate.
That said, the news has been manipulated to Obama’s advantage for some time. I don’t expect that to be possible for five more weeks. October surprises notwithstanding, Obama may have peaked too soon—and his peak is the peak of a house of cards fabricated by the media.
Romney should have at least one more period of momentum. I hope and expect to see that momentum but am sticking with my default estimate until I do.
Obama may have peaked too soon…
That’s a very interesting insight — never thought of the peaking factor.
Saw this in the comment section at…. Hot Air? Can’t remember now, but I lifted it. Politi-poetry ain’t my cup of bourbon, but plenty do enjoy this stuff:
‘Twas the night before elections,
And all thru’ the town,
Tempers were flaring
Emotions ran up and down.
I, in my bathrobe
With a cat in my lap,
Had shut off the TV,
tired of political crap.
When all of a sudden,
There arose such a noise,
I peered out my window,
Saw Obama and his boys.
They had come for my wallet,
They wanted my pay
To hand out to others
Who had not worked a day!
He snatched up my money,
And quick as a wink,
Jumped back on his bandwagon
As I gagged from the stink.
He then rallied his henchmen
Who were pulling his cart.
I could tell they were out
To tear my country apart!
‘On Fannie, on Freddie,
On Biden and Ayers!
On Acorn, on Pelosi’
He screamed at the pairs!
They took off for his cause,
And as they flew out of sight,
I heard him laugh at a nation
Who wouldn’t stand up and fight!
So I leave you to think
On this one final note.
IF YOU DON’T WANT SOCIALISM
GET OUT AND VOTE !!!!
Author unknown
I have not looked at all signs in my neighborhood, but so far there is a Romney/Ryan poster in one yard and a Kaine for Senate poster in another yard. Kaine is a democrat. On my block I know there are at least 3 Obama voters. I will probably vote for Romney. My husband will vote for Obama. He is one of the 3 Obama voters. My pro-life Catholic neighbors will vote ?. I haven’t asked them. I only know the opinions of people who have voluntarily stated their opinions. I live in Northern Virginia. Obama canvassers came by last Saturday.
I had to drive from NYC through Ohio last week twice, and it was really strange that there were no 0 bumper stickers either way or in NYC for that matter. I couldn’t get over it. There was 1 RR bumper sticker.
On another note, I have to drive in every day to a major University in a blue state in a hugely blue area and I cannot get over the fact that there are very few bumper stickers compared to 2008. Very notable in the area we are in. I am figuring that fewer will be voting this time as there are also no RR bumper stickers here. But in 2008, it was a veritable sea of 0 stickers, so it does seem odd.
I’m in the MN 6th, German Catholic country. Virtually all the signs are local and less so, state contests, none at all for O a small number for Romney, tho large.
The Dims fatted calf for the 6th, one Graves, hotelier, hired Greenberg(a very good D pollster) who called the contest tightening to 2 points.
Balderdash, last time out polling 8 ahead for months, Bachmann finshed 12 in front and reapportionment has made the district more conservative.
Not a lot of noise here, less, hard data, but I expect the margin statewide to be under 10,000 either way. Economy is Ok here but I’d give the edge to Romany. Too close for a professional to call.
I live in a swing state (NC) – and there have been plenty of tv ads by both parties (and by PACs for both).
In addition, one of the guys I follow on twitter comments regularly on the ad spending $ by each party in each of the swing states. NC usually runs around 5th or 6th on political ad spending (I’ll try to pay more attention next time he tweets this info). The swing states are getting a good dose of political ads. You can count on it! In addition, whenever a candidate/surrogate visits in the area that is covered in the local news, on top of whatever is in the national news. Politics has been steadily covered on tv news for months now around here. It must be strange to live in an area where you don’t hear/see much!
Biden’s speaking at some college in Asheville next week (UNC Asheville?? Criminal Justice Center??). The head of the Young Democrats at the school said he was hoping that they could gin up some enthusiasm (so, I guess there hasn’t been any?).
Cherokee NC is only about 45 miles from UNC Ashville, so the Elizabeth Warren crowd ought to have it going on for Biden, no? (Ashville is to the left of San Francisco).
I am in suburban Philadelphia. I don’t watch TV & I only listen to right-wingnutz radio so I can’t comment on advertisements. What is striking to me is the LACK of Obama bumper stickers & yard signs – there are hardly any at all.
I was at (yet another) funeral yesterday and although most of my family is hardcore Democrat, I overheard several family members discussing the election & they agreed that they weren’t going to vote. I guess the idea of voting for a *gasp* Republican was too horrifying. Hey, works for me!
I am in the South Puget Sound of WA state, so I guess those Obama ads I am seeing are in the Seattle television market; there are Romney ads also. I don’t get it; Seattle will surely go for Obama, and WA state very likely (because of Seattle-King County, and my county of Thurston, where Olympia is (home of Evergreen College, Rachel Corrie’s alma mater)). The signs and bumper stickers I see are evenly split between the candidates, which is much different from last Presidential election, when Obama-phoria was everywhere.
I live in Richmond, VA. There are a lot fewer Obama yard signs and bumper stickers than in ’08. There is dfinitely less enthusiasm for Obama this time around. Virginia is pretty red except for Northern Va which has the largest population center and is the sole reason Virginia is purple. Va enjoys a low unemployment rate due to its proximity to DC and large numer of federal employees which will probably help Obama.
Admittedly I don’t have a good feel for Northern Virginia but we have a succesful Republican governor who did well statewide which probably helps Romney.
The Senate race between Tim Kaine and George Allen appears to be close and that race is probably a barometer for how the presidential race will go.
The WaPo has a poll with Obama up 8 points which seems highly unlikely. Both Obama/Biden and Romeny/Ryan have been in state a lot recently which belies the claim that Obama is up by 8 points.
As a joke, a liberal friend of mine put me on a Democratic email list and the emails I get from the Democrats are pretty shrill which makes me think they are desperate. I am cautiously optimistic Virginia will return to the Republican fold given the lack of Democratic enthusiasm.
I live in Connecticut, which “should be” a safe state for Obama – yet I’ve seen oodles of Obama commercials on television. Why spend all of that money where your success should be guaranteed?
What is even more telling is that I have yet to see an Obama yard sign anywhere in my travels, although I’ve seen Romney signs (not a ton, mind you, but they are there). I also see very few Obama bumper stickers – and most of the ones I do see are from the last election. I also see a number of Linda McMahon for Senate signs and have seen none for her Dem opponent, Chris Murphy (who is my Congressman and a total moron). Even my husband, who will be voting for Obama (much to my dismay), may be voting for Linda for senate.
My mother is an Eeyore who is buying into the vintage media hype. I, for one, won’t give in until the final votes are counted.
very few obama yard signs here in the very blue metro west of boston,— framingham, sudbury, wayland, they were loaded last election, almost zero bumper stickers here for obama too and they were a ton of them in 2008, liberal land here is taking a good look at scott brown too, interesting times.