Governor Walker leads Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett by six percentage points– 50 percent of likely voters over Barrett’s 44 percent– according to a poll released today by Marquette Law School. Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch leads challenger Mahlon Mitchell by six percentage points as well, garnering 47 percent to his 41.
The poll used a sample size of 704 registered Wisconsin voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
Daily Kos released the results of a poll taken around the same time that shows Walker with 50 percent of the vote and Barrett at 45; Kleefisch received 46 percent to Mitchell’s 43 percent.
One of the key factors in the election appears to be turnout; according to the same poll, Republicans have the edge:
Republicans are more likely to say they are “absolutely certain” to vote on June 5, at 91 percent, than are Democrats and independents, both at 83 percent. In other areas of participation, Republicans also have an advantage. Sixty-two percent of Republicans say that they have tried to persuade someone to vote for or against a candidate, compared to 54 percent among Democrats and 48 percent among independents. Democrats, however, are more likely to have been contacted by a campaign, 83 percent, to 78 percent for Republicans and 76 percent among independents. These rates are for all registered voters in the sample, not just likely voters.
It won’t hurt that today Walker’s office released new jobs numbers showing that during 2011 Wisconsin employers added 23,321 jobs (57,221 more than original estimates):
Walker argued that the figures he released on Wednesday more accurately reflect what is happening in the state and are more in line with other positive economic indicators, such as a declining unemployment rate and rise in tax collections.
“The bottom line is Wisconsin added jobs in 2011,” said Reggie Newson, secretary of the state Department of Workforce Development.
Perhaps the DNC found out about the jobs numbers in advance, which might explain the lack of funds sent to Wisconsin?