Governor Walker leads Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett by six percentage points– 50 percent of likely voters over Barrett’s 44 percent– according to a poll released today by Marquette Law School. Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch leads challenger Mahlon Mitchell by six percentage points as well, garnering 47 percent to his 41.
The poll used a sample size of 704 registered Wisconsin voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
Daily Kos released the results of a poll taken around the same time that shows Walker with 50 percent of the vote and Barrett at 45; Kleefisch received 46 percent to Mitchell’s 43 percent.
One of the key factors in the election appears to be turnout; according to the same poll, Republicans have the edge:
Republicans are more likely to say they are “absolutely certain” to vote on June 5, at 91 percent, than are Democrats and independents, both at 83 percent. In other areas of participation, Republicans also have an advantage. Sixty-two percent of Republicans say that they have tried to persuade someone to vote for or against a candidate, compared to 54 percent among Democrats and 48 percent among independents. Democrats, however, are more likely to have been contacted by a campaign, 83 percent, to 78 percent for Republicans and 76 percent among independents. These rates are for all registered voters in the sample, not just likely voters.
It won’t hurt that today Walker’s office released new jobs numbers showing that during 2011 Wisconsin employers added 23,321 jobs (57,221 more than original estimates):
Walker argued that the figures he released on Wednesday more accurately reflect what is happening in the state and are more in line with other positive economic indicators, such as a declining unemployment rate and rise in tax collections.
“The bottom line is Wisconsin added jobs in 2011,” said Reggie Newson, secretary of the state Department of Workforce Development.
Perhaps the DNC found out about the jobs numbers in advance, which might explain the lack of funds sent to Wisconsin?
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Slightly on topic, but I’m hoping if Scott Walker & Co. win, the song of the day will be Junior Walker’s “Shotgun”!
In the meantime, we’ll listen to this song (h/t to http://www.althouse.blogspot.com):
“Stand With Governor Walker” ~ by Glen Shulfer
please note the 23k number is a NET, not a gross.
“added 23,321 jobs (57,221 more than original estimates)”
Ummmm, how does that work exactly?
In the normal course of business, jobs are both created and destroyed. What we want to know is the difference between the numbers, so that we can tell whether there are now more or fewer jobs in total than before.
In this case, the original estimate said that the state had lost 33,900 jobs, but it turned out that 57,221 more jobs had been created than originally thought, so there are now 23,321 jobs more than there were before.
Thanks, Valerie. I’ll be the first to admit I’m not an accountant or economist. I’m better at arithmetic than math. ;-p
A friendly social question here.
What is the difference between “arithmetic ‘ & “math” ?
WE just say mathematics or maths. Along the way kids have the usual algebra & trigonometry but they are within maths.
At university there is Pure & Applied Mathematics.
More inexplicably where did the s plural in maths go & why ?
So what’s the other guy, the DEMOCRAT, gonna run on. “Vote for me. I promise I will raise your taxes. I will reinstate collective bargaining for public employees so that the money train rolls on to the benefit of all public employees and not your interests. I will kowtow to all liberal special interests. And I will reverse the course set by Walker even though it has brought fiscal stability to the state. Just vote for me.”
It’s hard to believe, but that’s exactly what they do. Brown’s in deep trouble in California, and I bet they’re going to raise taxes rather than cut the incredible bureaucracy in that state. They voted him in knowing that he would ultimately raise taxes.
And Obama and Romney are tied…
I may have missed it last night on my LI visit. (I had to fight off the wacko Bolt campers ) but was Deb Fischers win in Nebraska covered?
I predict she will easily win Nelson’s vacant seat. A big win for Palin also .
Very few people are political but many have agendas . Wiconsins are realizing there is a difference.
Walker back comfortably – leeish a bit closer but a win.
Kleefish.
In the State of Washington we also added jobs, about 24000! Too bad they are all government employees. Our squishy Liberal Governor says we need to increase taxes and cut services. Oh, the joy of being in a blue state.
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Scott Walker will win the recall, I am pretty sure about this. there was one poll that had Walker ahead 9 points of the dem… and two others (which are run by libs… and are slightly less accurate I assume) that had Walker up just 5 points ahead.
Dems are going to be shattered when they find out… they lost the election and probably go apeshit crazy… that they keep losing, and losing and losing and losing and losing…
seriously how many times is this now?
first, they thought they’d win 2010… the was a landslide for the GOP… then they tried to prevent the passage of walker’s bill by fleeing the state and holding out (it still passed). then they tried to get kloppenburg elected so that if she were on the courts she could sideline walker’s bill. …then they used a lower judge to try and block it, but that was overturned by the supreme courts.
now they ultimately try a recall…. Dems are just petty tards that can’t accept when they have lost.
you know, since dems wasted a whole year with this sh*t…. Walker should really punish the unions for it, by doing something else to really cut their funding.