Like I said Friday, the fuse has been lit. I think it’s too late for Assad to put it out without a major blow up.
Now the Arab League, in an unprecedented move, has imposed economic sanctions on Syria, including travel bans on senior officials and other measures which will make it difficult for Syrian countries to trade. The sanctions though, probably will be ignored by Lebanon and Iraq, but nonetheless are an important symbolic slap at the Assad regime.
Libya reportedly has offered weapons and troops to aid Syria’s insurgent army currently drawn from army defectors. Syria’s neighbors, including Israel and Turkey, as well as Hezbollah, reportedly are on heightened military alert.
Meanwhile, trouble is brewing in Lebanon which will split along sectarian lines as the Syria crisis grows deeper:
Tens of thousands of supporters of Lebanon’s anti-Syrian opposition gathered in
the Sunni stronghold of Tripoli on Sunday to denounce the regime in Damascus and
its Shiite ally Hezbollah.The rally in the northern port city was organised by the Future Movement, the main opposition party headed by ex-premier Saad Hariri, to mark the 68th anniversary of Lebanon’s independence.
Just waiting for the boom.
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Tic … tic … BOOM!
Did President 0bama go golfing today? Or is he watching the gridiron? Where’s Hilary? What balloon is going to pop first: 1. riots in Europe over the collapse of the Euro, 2. Tension between NATO and Pakistan, 3. Total collapse of Syria or 4. Crisis to be named later.
Maybe we should form a pool on “unexpected problems to blow up” such as: 1. Chinese lash out at Taiwan, 2. Problems with American troops in Uganda, 3. Iran attacking Turkey because they ‘mistakenly thought’ Israel or the U.S. of A. had attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Whoa, didn’t see that coming.
Assad’s fail safe: Attack Israel…because if there’s one thing all Arabs/Muslims can agree on, it’s Jew hatred.
I think that the unexpected problem will be the trip wire for the collapse of the whole middle east. The unexpected problem will be India and Pakistan dusting up. Both are nuclear powers and a tactical situation where one side or the other will be facing a total military defeat and a general will not wish to fall on his sword. Once one is lit off the Iranian religious will see it as the start of the apocalyptic war they have been have wet dreams about for centuries. They will immediately use whatever material they have at hand (even if “only” a dirty bomb against Israel or an American interest in either Turkey or Iraq as a token show of support for Pakistan against the “infidels”. India will beg for help from the US because Iran is a Russian/Chinese client state. Turkey will suddenly try to throw Nato out because their Islamist politicians will blame the attack on non-believers being present in their country. The calamity will cascade as all the tensions in the region let loose.
I have a creeping feeling that the Greatest War may be near and everyone will be sucked into it.
We will rue the day that we began to disassemble the powerful military that Reagan created.
Enjoy the ride and keep at least thirty days worth of can goods on hand to see the outcome…
Look on he bright side … where would we be now without “smart diplomacy”?
What has happened to “Assad the Reformer”?
There’s only one solution …
Lead from behind, softly, and carry a big freaking teleprompter.
The Sunni who dominate the Arab League have no use for the Alawis who rule over the Sunni Syrians. This is even more the case as the Alawi were only recognized by the Iranian Shia as Shia Muslims for the first time in the 1970s.
The Sunni have always seen this as an attempt by the Iranians to expand their influence within Islam and few Sunni recognize the Alawi as Muslim at all. In many ways, the Middle Eastern conflict is driven first by this Sunni/Shia divide.
One other unexpected event which would set the whole area aflame would for the Saudi’s to shut off the Haaj to all but Sunni Muslim. This would assume a coup by the Mutaween (done by holding the military’s families hostage).
The Arab Winter has begun with a vengeance. The fuse has been lit for the entire region and I find no comfort in “important symbolic sanctions.”
I too am just waiting for the boom.
Why didn’t you mention that Iraq didn’t support the sanctions against Syria? They just abstained.
Legal Insurrection was a supporter of Bush’s War in Iraq.
What a gift to the Iranians Bush and the neo-cons were.
Why don’t you read the post. I said Iraq and Lebanon would likely ignore the sanctions. And as to “Legal Insurrection was a supporter of Bush’s War in Iraq” that’s an interesting assertion since LI didn’t even exist until October 2008.
Where’s the Ka-Boom? There was supposed to be an earth-shattering Ka-Boom!