Over 2400 votes cast.
Herman Cain wins with an overwhelming 46% based on the current field, with Perry (21%) and Romney (10%) far behind. Sarah Palin wins big in an expanded field including Chris Christie, at 58% with Cain dropping to second at 14%, Christie at 13% , Perry at 8% and Romney at 3.5%. (These numbers are rounded, full and precise results here.)
First all the usual caveats. Not a scientific poll. Not even a poll. Like a true straw poll a measure of who showed up and enthusiasm. Not surprisingly, this blog has a large pro-Palin contingent, and there were some links to the poll in the comment sections of pro-Palin blogs which may account for her higher numbers to some extent.
My observations from this straw poll:
- Cain likely is getting the vote from those not happy with the two frontrunners, similar to the “no confidence” vote (Bill Kristol’s term) in the Florida straw poll. When the field expands Cain’s percentage dropped dramatically.
- Support for Romney and Perry is a mile wide and an inch thin. They lose when others get in or gain momentum, as in the Florida straw poll.
- Chris Christie (at last report, still not getting in) takes votes away from Romney, consistent with Dan Riehl’s theory that Christie is being pushed by the establishment not as an anti-Perry candidate, but out of fears that Romney is weak.
- Palin has an ethusiastic base of support, more organized on the internet than any other candidate. That there were some links at pro-Palin blogs reflects that there are pro-Palin blogs but few if any blogs backing the curent front runners. (Someone please point me to pro-Romney or pro-Perry blogs which are not creatures of the campaign.)
Your thoughts?
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“or pro-Perry blogs which are not creatures of the campaign”
LOL are you kidding professor? Red State 🙂
Not only are there pro-Palin blogs, there are a LOT of them. Check out Organize4Palin http://www.organize4palin.com/ and notice all the states with “4Palin” blogs, and they all have their own t-shirts: http://www.o4pshirts.com/
There’s a Texans for Sarah Palin, but is there a Texans for Rick Perry? Is there an Indiana for Perry? How about Romney? When some say she has no organization, they have no idea how wide-spread her ‘unconventional’ organization is. But don’t tell them; let them learn the hard way ;~)
It is puzzling to me that people say Palin can’t win the general. Do they really, really think that 46 million people voted for McCain? Obama is not going to have the votes he had in 2008. Not by a long chalk. More and more people are getting interested in politics and this race because of his policies and want him out. I would say any republican can beat him and we want one who will start limiting government, not sending the same type to DC as usual.
Of the 46 million people, I would bet more voted for McCain than for Palin.
I still believe that the 2012 Republican nominee should be decided based on who will do best against Obama. Right now, that looks like Romney. I don’t think Palin would have a chance, even though I like most of her views.
Romney is not my favorite politician and even he would have some problems against Obama; but, not as many problems as the other candidates. That’s why I hope Christy gets in. I probably don’t agree with all his views any more than I do with Romney’s, but I think he would be stronger against Obama.
Nominating a real conservative Republican Presidential candidate who then loses the general election is not a good strategy this year. Obama has come too close to ruining the country; give him four more years and he will complete the job.
From what I’ve learned about Christie is that the only thing’s he strong in is fighting unions. The guy’s a RINO and that’s as close as you can get to a Republican in NJ. Do we really need another RINO in the White House? We need real change this time around.
Would you prefer Christy (or Romney) or Obama? Those may be your only choices barring entry into the race of another Reagan-like candidate. The only person I see that is close to that description is Marco Rubio Jeb Bush might also come close, but his name/family connection might be an impediment.
Moreover, Christy has fought continuously with the state legislature over a wide variety of fiscal issues. As a result, New Jersey is on a much better financial footing than they were when he took over.
1. Actually, Palin is the anti-Obama in every way. In sports terms, she is the best matchup against Obama. Palin never stood down in disagreeing with Obama publicly and going after his policy positions since the 2008 campaign. Romney and Perry are both Obama-lite in their own ways.
2. Gov Walker has fought HARDER and accomplished MUCH MORE for Wisconsin than Christie has done in NJ.
But none of that makes them electable. Polls tell us a lot about electability, but it is pretty early to rely heavily on head-to-head matchups. More subjective factors are really important now. The debates tell us a lot know about how a candidate might fare against Obama. That’s why Perry is quickly losing popularity. He just doesn’t come off as someone who knows what he’s doing. Remember, reality is not what’s most important here. It’s mostly about appearances. It is truly unfortunate we have come to this point, but we have and we have to recognize it if we want the most conservative electable candidate to be nominated.
Don’t buy into conventional wisdom, Jay. Don’t you remember how much everyone Hated Bush in 08?? McCain was just Bush III! He should have gone down in a Landslide! But No. Instead, they drew 46% of the vote against the First Black President. And this was for one reason alone: Governor Sarah Palin.
Don’t allow yourself to be brainwashed by Old media, check out this piece: http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=46346
Not anyone I know. If they were voting for McCain, they were either A. Voting with their nose piched shut or B. Voting for Palin.
I was a B.
I didn’t care about Palin one whit; she wasn’t going to be President and would have no influence as VP. I could tell even then that Obama was going to be a disaster, so I was an A all the way.
Gospace’s point was that lots and lots of people voted enthusiastically for the Palin part of the McCain-Palin ticket. You could see that in who drew the crowds at Republican presidential campaign events. It wasn’t McCain.
Would they have voted for McCain anyway? Hard core voters like you and me would have. But, there are lots of fair weather voters who turn out only when enthused.
The Democrats are concerned right now because their base isn’t enthusiastic. That means lower vote turnout and likely a losing campaign. Enthusiastic voting, not just holding your nose voting, is the kind of response that wins elections. Think 2004 when Bush’s voters were much more enthusiastic than Kerry’s even though the hate Bush voters were a lot more numerous than the hate Kerry voters.
And you admit you were an A, voting with your nose pinched shut. Did anyone, anyone at all who didn’t share his last name, have enthusiasm for McCain?
Voters are now more knowledgeable because of blogs like this. Let’s heed Palin’s advice and not just change uniforms.
Utah deadline is Oct. 14 and I think Florida deadline is Oct. 30
I don’t see Palin running for POTUS in this cycle.
No, the Utah filing deadline is January 15, 2012 !!!!
http://elections.utah.gov/register/becoming-a-federal-candidate.
=================================================
Also,
Iowa caucus: No “filing” per se for candidates.
New Hampshire: November 21.
South Carolina: November 1.
Nevada caucus: No formal “filing” of candidates.
Florida: October 31
Michigan: October 23
You “don’t see her running”?? Not only is Governor Palin IN, but she’s already the frontrunner. It’s all a matter of timing and strategy, people….
I think the observation about Romney being weak is on target. He does not directly answer the tough questions (outright lying on two occasions) nor does he give many specifics. He is running the Obama 08 campaign. Cain has been talking specifics which makes his straw poll win plausible. It will not get him the nomination. He does not have experience in legislative matters, executive experience as a governor, nor with national defense.
Perry has had a bullseye on him since he entered. Bachmann has continued to hector him while her support continues to diminish. Her act is wearing very thin. It sometimes appears she is in with Camp Romney. I have been hearing rumors from folks in her district that she may not run for reelection to Congress.
There is no doubt Perry really brought the fury with his ‘no heart’ comment. He would be better off turning the argument where it belongs–Plyler v Doe–where the SCOTUS overturned a TX law which denied free public education to illegal aliens violated the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment, because discrimination on the basis of immigration status did not further a substantial state interest.
It is not a stretch to apply this case to higher education. Perry can turn this around by making the argument the SCOTUS ordered the State to do it and TX applied the mandate to higher education to avoid the costs of litigation. The irony here is folks tend to accept the argument that what Romney did in passing RomneyCare was a 10th Amendment issue yet what TX did is not. And Romney wonders why the base does not trust him ……
If there are no other candidates entering the race, Perry has to do a better job or he’s (as well as the hopes of the Movement Conservatives and Tea Party folks) done.
Professor:
I would suggest that Red State (dba Red State 4 Perry) is deep in the Perry woods. Erickson of course introduced Gov. Perry when he gave his announcement.
Also, much of PJM recent pieces look like copy and paste off the Perry website (sadly).
What is disturbing is that websites are unwilling to self disclose their allegiances. At PJM, Roger L. Simon (who I admire) recently interviewed Dick Cheney on the topic of the recent Perry news brief on Israel. Roger kept injecting himself by trying to get Cheney to speak positively about Perry’s comments, and Cheney adroitly kept batting those suggestions down.
At least the Palin support web sites make no bones about their overt support for Sarah Palin.
Yes, you probably are right about that, but I don’t view that blog, which now is corporate owned, as the sort of organic pro-Palin blogosphere.
To the “Only A RINO Can Beat Obama” crowd I say…
Better Pink than Red?
I don’t think so.
I agree.
Questions for only a “RINO is Electable” mindset:
What is the definition of “Too Far Right?” and in the view of whom?
What is the definition of “Too Far Left?” and in the view of whom?
Which recent Presidents were too far right and too far left?
How did these “extremist” presidents get elected/reelected if the electability litmus test is an amalgam?
In my view, Bush would have lost against any Democrat if he could have run for a third term.
From my personal viewpoint, even Reagan was too liberal. But a candidate that met my personal views could not get elected; as always, we are forced to choose from a limited number of available alternatives.
Electability, unfortunately, is based on far more than a candidate’s basic political views. I may agree more with Cain or Palin on basic views, but I don’t think either could win a general election. Who was it that first said he would vote for the most conservative electable candidate? Was that Bill Buckley? In any even, it is very good advice, especially in these times. Obama must be defeated, even if it takes a RINO to do it, although I hope that is not the case.
thoughts?
Very accurate analysis of the LI straw poll results.
*__*
Professor Jacobson mentioned pro-Sarah Palin blogs, some officially hers, some from organizations supporting her like O4P, and some just from people who like her enough to start a website. Incidentally, they seem to be multiplying like rabbits lately.
There is another phenomenon, a large and rapidly growing number of Sarah Palin videos. They seem to be spontaneously generated by people who like her. They are of varying quality but they are coming fast and furiously.
Samples:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-G2n91wKtY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mv50tY00ujs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXd949Iwjdw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1xL7GVXgEU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gvb40djkO0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcg-3R-xgY8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBh8x2KZf3Q
Ever seen anything like it?
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=sarah+palin+tributes&aq=f
Dan Riehl’s theory is not a theory as Patterico quantifies this morning.
http://patterico.com/2011/09/26/christie-2012-signs-point-to-yes/
Key graf:
“However, Christie’s potential candidacy has been an increasingly fevered fantasy of a certain cadre of some media and business elites — mostly based in New York, with a smattering of California technology and entertainment players — since last summer. These elites do not take no for an answer. Now, relying on an unusual source, they have reason to hope Christie will change his mind.”
Christie is a desperate hail mary pass for liberal Democrats panicking over idea that the GOP might defy the big dirty money and nominate a conservative for a change.
(So is Ann Coulter a “fevered NY elite” or “CA tech and entertainment player”?)
Is Christie the Anti-Perry or the Anti-Romney?
By NATE SILVER
“The ideology of governors can sometimes be hard to measure because they do not take roll call votes, as members of Congress do. But a method devised by Adam Bonica, a political scientist at Stanford, would infer that Mr. Christie was quite moderate based on the political orientation of his campaign contributors. Mr. Christie’s ideological score, according to Mr. Bonica’s method, is similar to that of Mr. Romney’s when he was governor of Massachusetts, or Charlie Crist while he was governor of Florida, although somewhat to the right of Christie Whitman when she was governor of New Jersey.”
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/26/is-christie-the-anti-perry-or-the-anti-romney/?hp
(Someone please point me to pro-Romney or pro-Perry blogs which are not creatures of the campaign.)
There may be some blogs out there that are pro Romney or Perry, I’ll wager there are no blogs out there that were FORMED to be pro either one.
Palin’s supporters are energetic in their support. And hoping she jumps in.
Interesting post on Instapundit in regards to that:
“NOT SET IN STONE: On Facebook, Rich Galen reminds us: “4 yrs ago the GOP leaders were Giuliani (28%) & Thompson (23). Dems were Hillary (47) & Obama (26).””
Pro-Romney blogs/sites: America Needs Mitt; Evangelicals for Mitt; Mitt Romney Central; Conservative Samizdat; RightSpeak (most of the bloggers are pro-Romney, though the site itself may not be); one of the bloggers on Conservative Wahoo actually volunteers in Romney’s Iowa campaign; and any number of groups/pages on Facebook, all of which have higher fanbases than any other candidate (including Ron Paul, excluding Sarah Palin).
Oh, and every now and then, I’ll pen something on A Free Exchange of Ideas ( http://youngconservative27.blogspot.com/ )
All of these are strictly grassroots only. Romney has plenty of his own organizations, of course, with his Free And Strong America PACs and his official campaign; but these are all independent sites.
JayDick | September 26, 2011 at 11:09 am
“Of the 46 million people, I would bet more voted for McCain than for Palin…
Nominating a real conservative Republican Presidential candidate who then loses the general election is not a good strategy this year. ..
Obama has come too close to ruining the country; give him four more years and he will complete the job.”
‘Do ya feel lucky, a$$hole??’
Sorry for the Dirty Harry profanity, but this is the classic establishment Republican argument — this is McCain’s argument: Be squishy and strap on a conservative symbol – you’ll win, hand-down!
Did McCain win? Did Dole win?
The country is in TROUBLE. Give Obama four more years, and America is……a pleasant memory.
Do ya feel lucky?
Herman-tum…..
‘Course thank God long time ago I didn’t vote for that extremist………..what was his name Ronnie…….had ‘is finger on the button, liked killin’ brown people…….Reagtionary?
I love Sarah.
Republicans just have to agree, UNIFY behind one.
and…..Victory.
Be it proposed that anyone averring “Sarah Palin is unelectable.” is a moby. Unctuous “I care” protestations notwithstanding. Anyone slipping in that is a dick.
‘Do ya feel lucky, a$$hole??’ is a misquote. The line is ‘Do you feel lucky? Well, do you, punk?’
Not everyone has chosen Cain simply as a “better Cain than…” candidate. I started off as a huge Cainiac before he even announced, (why? His support for the Fair Tax), but as this lead up to actual primaries has dragged on, I’ve lost some interest in the whole affair, which has lead to a bit of a roving eye towards Paul (libertarian ideals), Gingrich (knows government) and Johnson (libertarian & Fair Tax). However, Cain, as the most electable of the four, hasn’t lost my heart and, if I am honest, he’s still my #1 guy.