The last thing I want this blog to turn into is all Obama all the time (hah!). That’s going to be hard in 2012, but we really need to keep focused on the insurance policy, the House and Senate.
Contrary to what others are saying, there is a strong likelihood that Obama will win reelection for no other reason than any Republican nominee will receive the Palin-treatment by the mainstream media. Any polling now, before a candidate has been subject to Alinsky-like isolation and targeting, is interesting but not dispositive.
In the 2010 cycle I picked a Top 10 list of races on which to focus. Some were longshots but near and dear to me (e.g., challenging Maurice Hinchey in Ithaca) and picked for emotional reasons. Others were races which were not receiving a lot of attention nationally and in which I thought there was an opportunity to make a difference. For the most part, I focused on the House because Senate races generally receive national attention and fundraising.
It’s not too early to start that selection process. The key criteria for 2012 are (1) must be a conservative Republican, not third parties; (2) must be a swing district, i.e., a potentially vulnerable Republican or chance to flip a Democratic seat; and (3) must not already have national attention and fundraising . There are, of course, exceptions to every rule; for example I would not rule out having Allen West on the list even though he probably will be able to raise tons of money.